User:Vassyana/ArbCom 2007

See Wikipedia:Arbitration Committee Elections December 2007

There are five open seats, so I pay particular attention to the top five. However, I include the top seven of each category for perspective and analysis.

Updated Vassyana (talk) 11:55, 7 December 2007 (UTC)

Revision of numbers, lede and category comments.[1] 11:55, 7 December 2007 (UTC)
Revision of commentary.[2] 12:33, 7 December 2007 (UTC)

Revision of numbers and category comments.[3] 22:11, 12 December 2007 (UTC)
Revision of commentary and predictions.[4] Vassyana (talk) 22:25, 12 December 2007 (UTC)

Raw Support

(No change in order)

Newyorkbrad (512)
Giano II (291)
Raul654 (277)
Deskana (263)
FT2 (232)
---
FayssalF (218)
Rebecca (215)

Net Support

Rau654 drops from fourth to fifth. FayssalF moves up from fifth to fourth.

Newyorkbrad (499)
FT2 (203)
Deskana (165)
FayssalF (156)
Raul654 (124)
---
Rebecca (107)
Sam Blacketer (93)

Pecentage

Newyorkbrad (98)
FT2 (89)
FayssalF (78)
Sam Blacketer (75)
Deskana (73)
---
Thebainer (68)
Rebecca (67)

Raw Opposition

Least opposition = "highest" rating FayssalF moves up into the top five. Thebainer drops out of the top five.

Newyorkbrad (13)
FT2 (29)
Sam Blacketer (46)
Shell Kinney (53)
FayssalF (62)
---
Thebainer (63)
John Reaves (64)

Analysis

Newyorkbrad and FT2 are the strong candidates in this election. They place across all four number spreads and just have a significant majority of support. They have consistently held at the top spots of the election and with only a few days left, that is highly unlikely to change.

Deskana is still a strong candidate, and while his support has been slipped steadily in the early election, his position has stabilized comfortably. He's a candidate with a broad base of support and will likely finish out the election well.

Sam Blacketer has a comfortable percentage and notability had generated very little opposition. however, he had also not generated a strong showing of support. He's received a decent splatter of voters in the past few days, placing his candidacy on surer footing. The number of participants is still fairly low, so a burst of opposition could still harm his chances, but I believe it is unlikely he will not finish decently.

Raul654 has a very strong base of support, but has also generated significant opposition. Concerns about activity levels and the perceived need for fresh blood may torpedo his candidacy. He is very well-entrenched in the wiki, and this appears to be working both for and against him. He candidacy is unlikely succeed without a very strong burst of support with minimal opposition. He's been holding firm in eighth place and current has 64% support which represents a further mild decline over the past few days.

Giano has an impressive amount of raw support, but he is a controversial figure and his candidacy has been sharply sliding. He is almost to the point of having equal opposition to his support. His candidacy is very unlikely to succeed, but it is likely to be the most voted upon candidacy of the pack after Newyorkbrad's impressive showing (which currently has attracted 28 more votes than Giano's). Interestingly, Giano moved up to second place in terms of raw support over the past few days.

Rebecca has a good base of support and is not far behind from the top five in net support and percentage. However, she is a bit further behind in terms of raw opposition and her candidacy has been slowly sliding away. Her candidacy has failed to stabilize and continues the slow decline. Without a very strong showing of support for the close of the election, she will not win a seat in this election.

FayssalF has a solid percentage and has been moving up by that count. He has moved up to the top five in net support. He is additionally not far behind in raw support, and has moved up into the best five in raw opposition. Previously I didn't think him to be a strong candidate, but simply a solid one. However, his position has consistently strengthened throughout the election. He should acquire a seat neatly.

Thebainer can't probably be considered the "dark horse" candidate in this election any longer. That is, someone unlikely to win, but with the potential to succeed. He has generated relatively little opposition and holds a decent percentage. However, he has generated relatively little support and a burst of opposition could quickly derail the candidacy. It is unlikely at this late hour that he will generate the support needed to win a seat in this election.

Current predictions

I'm guessing that the seats will go to:

Newyorkbrad
FT2
Deskana
FayssalF
Sam Blacketer.

(Note: It no longer seems viable for Rebecca or Thebainer to gain a seat.)