2004 United States presidential election in Vermont

The 2004 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Vermont

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 184,067 121,180
Percentage 58.94% 38.80%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Vermont is the home state of United States presidential candidate and anti-war advocate Howard Dean, its former governor. Vermont voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, over incumbent Republican President George W. Bush of Texas. Kerry received 58.94% of the vote to Bush's 38.80%, a Democratic victory margin of 20.14%.[1]

Kerry also swept 13 of the state's 14 counties, breaking 60% in 6 of them. Kerry's strongest county was Windham County, which he won with 66.43% of the vote to Bush's 31.22%. Only one county voted for Bush, sparsely populated bellwether Essex County in the far northeast of the state, which Bush won with 54.17% of the vote. A state with strong liberal and anti-war tendencies, Vermont registered as the third most Democratic state in the nation in the 2004 election, its results making the state about 23% more Democratic than the nation. It also had the strongest Democratic swing of any state in the nation against Bush compared to the 2000 result. Even as Bush increased his nationwide popular vote support from a 0.52% loss to Al Gore in 2000 to a 2.46% nationwide victory in 2004, Vermont swung 10.20% against Bush, making the state trend 13.18% Democratic relative to the nation. This portended the future trend of the state toward dominance by the Democratic Party, as Democrat Barack Obama would carry the state in a 67-30 landslide four years later in 2008 and again in 2012.

Kerry, from neighboring Massachusetts, was the first Northern Democrat ever to carry Vermont. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though Vermont is a northern state. As of 2020, this remains the only time a Republican has won the national popular vote without carrying Vermont. Bush thus became the first-ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Caledonia, Orange, or Orleans Counties. Bush became the only Republican to ever win two terms without ever carrying the state.

Democratic primary

edit

Primary date: March 2, 2004

2004 Vermont Democratic presidential primary[2]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Howard Dean 44,393 53.6% 9
John Kerry 26,171 31.6% 6
Dennis Kucinich 3,396 4.1% 0
Wesley Clark 2,749 3.3% 0
Others 1,059 1.3% 0
Total - 100.00% 28

Campaign

edit

Predictions

edit

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[3]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid D
Cook Political Report Solid D
Research 2000 Solid D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Post Solid D
Washington Dispatch Likely D
Washington Times Solid D
The New York Times Solid D
CNN Solid D
Newsweek Solid D
Associated Press Solid D
Rasmussen Reports Solid D

Results

edit
Presidential candidate Party Popular vote Percentage Electoral vote
John Kerry Democratic 184,067 58.94% 3
George W. Bush (incumbent) Republican 121,180 38.80% 0
Ralph Nader Independent 4,494 1.44% 0
Michael Badnarik Libertarian 1,102 0.35% 0
Write ins 957 0.31% 0
John Parker Liberty Union 265 0.09% 0
Róger Calero Socialist Workers 244 0.08% 0

Source[4]

By county

edit
County John Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Addison 11,147 60.00% 7,077 38.09% 355 1.91% 4,070 21.91% 18,579
Bennington 11,069 58.06% 7,616 39.95% 380 1.99% 3,453 18.11% 19,065
Caledonia 7,106 50.00% 6,765 47.60% 340 2.39% 341 2.40% 14,211
Chittenden 49,369 63.54% 26,422 34.01% 1,905 2.45% 22,947 29.53% 77,696
Essex 1,276 43.45% 1,591 54.17% 70 2.38% -315 -10.72% 2,937
Franklin 10,598 53.20% 8,936 44.86% 386 1.95% 1,662 8.34% 19,920
Grand Isle 2,246 55.09% 1,754 43.02% 77 1.89% 492 12.07% 4,077
Lamoille 7,636 62.69% 4,260 34.97% 285 2.34% 3,376 27.72% 12,181
Orange 8,159 54.78% 6,421 43.11% 315 2.12% 1,738 11.67% 14,895
Orleans 6,330 51.71% 5,666 46.28% 246 2.01% 664 5.43% 12,242
Rutland 15,904 51.34% 14,440 46.62% 631 2.03% 1,464 4.72% 30,975
Washington 19,177 60.98% 11,461 36.44% 810 2.58% 7,716 24.54% 31,448
Windham 15,489 66.43% 7,280 31.22% 547 2.35% 8,209 35.21% 23,316
Windsor 18,561 60.33% 11,491 37.35% 715 2.33% 7,070 22.98% 30,767
Totals 184,067 58.94% 121,180 38.80% 7,062 2.26% 62,887 20.14% 312,309
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

edit

By congressional district

edit

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Bush Kerry Representative
At-large 30.94% 58.8% Bernie Sanders

See also

edit

References

edit
  1. ^ 2004 Presidential General Election Results – Vermont
  2. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  3. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW [permanent dead link]
  4. ^ "Our Campaigns - VT US President Race - Nov 02, 2004". ourcampaigns.com. 2008. Retrieved August 25, 2015.