2010 United States Senate election in Kansas

The 2010 United States Senate election in Kansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Senator Sam Brownback did not seek a third full term, but instead successfully ran for Governor of Kansas.

2010 United States Senate election in Kansas

← 2004 November 2, 2010 2016 →
 
Nominee Jerry Moran Lisa Johnston
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 587,175 220,971
Percentage 70.09% 26.38%

County results
Moran:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Johnston:      40–50%      50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Sam Brownback
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jerry Moran
Republican

Fellow Republican and representative Jerry Moran won the open seat. This was the first open-seat United States Senate election in Kansas for this seat since 1968.[a]

Background

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Sam Brownback was first elected to the Senate in 1996, replacing Bob Dole, who resigned to run for President. Brownback stated that he would not run for re-election in 2010 because of self-imposed term limits. Kansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation; no Democrat has been elected to either Senate seat since 1932.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Campaign

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The retirement of Brownback, a popular U.S. Senator, led to a heavily competitive primary election. Tiahrt, who was on the Committee of Appropriations, had been accused of excessive earmarking while he was in Congress. From 2006 to 2008, Tiahrt had requested and supported a total of 63 solo earmarks, costing $53.9 million. In the same period, Moran had requested and supported a total of 29 earmarks, with a pricetag of $13.4 million.[5][6]

Endorsements

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Moran

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Notable individuals and organizations endorsing Jerry Moran[7]

Tiahrt

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State/local-level positions (State Senators, Governors, etc.)[8]
  • State Senator Steve Abrams
  • State Senator Les Donovan
  • State Senator Dick Kelsey
  • State Senator Julia Lynn
  • State Senator Ty Masterson
  • State Senator Carolyn McGinn
  • State Senator Susan Wagle
  • Kansas House Majority Leader Ray Merrick
  • Kansas Speaker Pro Tempore Arlen Seigfreid
  • State Representative Steven Brunk
  • State Representative J. David Crum
  • State Representative Peter DeGraaf
  • State Representative Mario Goico
  • State Representative John Grange
  • State Representative Phil Hermanson
  • State Representative Steve Huebert
  • State Representative Aaron Jack
  • State Representative Kasha Kelley
  • State Representative Dan Kerschen
  • State Representative Brenda Landwehr
  • State Representative Joe McLeland
  • State Representative Virgil Peck
  • State Representative Marc Rhoades
  • State Representative Gene Suellentrop
U.S. federal positions (Senators, Congressmen, etc.)[8]
Notable individuals and organizations endorsing Todd Tiahrt[8]

Polling

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Poll source Dates administered Todd Tiahrt Jerry Moran
Research 2000[10] February 2–4, 2009 24% 19%
Survey USA[11] April 17–19, 2009 35% 39%
Survey USA[12] June 12–14, 2009 38% 40%
Survey USA[13] October 2–4, 2009 27% 43%
Survey USA[14] December 4–6, 2009 34% 37%
Survey USA[15] January 29–31, 2010 33% 40%
Survey USA[16] March 26–28, 2010 32% 42%
Survey USA[17] May 21–23, 2010 29% 52%
Survey USA[18] June 24–27, 2010 33% 53%
Survey USA[19] July 15–18, 2010 36% 50%
Survey USA[20] July 29 – August 1, 2010 39% 49%

Results

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Primary results by county.
Map legend
  •   Moran—80–90%
  •   Moran—70–80%
  •   Moran—60–70%
  •   Moran—50–60%
  •   Moran—40–50%
  •   Tiahrt—40–50%
  •   Tiahrt—50–60%
  •   Tiahrt—60–70%
Republican primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jerry Moran 161,407 49.8%
Republican Todd Tiahrt 144,372 44.6%
Republican Tom Little 10,104 3.1%
Republican Bob Londerholm 8,168 2.5%
Total votes 324,051 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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  • Robert Conroy, retired railroad employee
  • David Haley, state senator and nominee for Secretary of State in 2002 and 2006[22]
  • Lisa Johnston, administrator at Baker University[23]
  • Charles Schollenberger, retired communications executive[24]
  • Patrick Wiesner, attorney and CPA

Polling

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Poll source Dates administered Charles Schollenberger Lisa Johnston Robert Conroy David Haley Undecided
Survey USA[18] June 24–27, 2010 16% 24% 11% 11% 35%
Survey USA[19] July 15–18, 2010 14% 23% 7% 12% 36%
Survey USA[20] July 29 – August 1, 2010 21% 29% 7% 12% 25%

Results

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Democratic primary results[21]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lisa Johnston 25,421 31.2%
Democratic Charles Schollenberger 19,228 23.6%
Democratic David Haley 15,584 19.2%
Democratic Patrick Wiesner 13,359 16.4%
Democratic Robert Conroy 7,779 9.6%
Total votes 81,371 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Major

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Minor

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Campaign

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Kansas is a very red state, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate election since 1932.[25] After the primary, Moran chose not to release any more negative advertisements. Democrat Lisa Johnston ran a low-profile, quiet race. On election day, she won only two counties: Wyandotte County and Douglas County, while Moran won statewide by a landslide.[26]

Debates

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The two never met for a debate.[27]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[28] Solid R October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[29] Safe R October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[30] Safe R October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Safe R October 21, 2010
CQ Politics[32] Safe R October 26, 2010

Polling

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Poll source Date(s) administered Jerry Moran Lisa Johnston
Rasmussen Reports[33] May 11, 2010 61% 25%
Rasmussen Reports[34] June 30, 2010 59% 23%
Rasmussen Reports[35] August 4, 2010 61% 28%
Survey USA[36] August 12–15, 2010 69% 23%
Survey USA[37] September 14–16, 2010 66% 24%
Survey USA[38] October 10–12, 2010 67% 27%
Survey USA[39] October 22–26, 2010 66% 26%

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Lisa Johnston (D) $10,627 $4,530 $6,096 $1,131
Jerry Moran (R) $2,749,244 $4,497,168 $795,015 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[40]

Results

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United States Senate election in Kansas, 2010[41]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Jerry Moran 587,175 70.09% +0.93%
Democratic Lisa Johnston 220,971 26.38% −1.11%
Libertarian Michael Dann 17,922 2.14% +0.21%
Reform Joe Bellis 11,624 1.39% −0.03%
Total votes 837,692 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Notes

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  1. ^ Sheila Frahm ran for the 1996 special election to finish Bob Dole's term, but lost in the primary to Sam Brownback.

References

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  1. ^ "Londerholm drops out of Senate race". Associated Press. July 13, 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
  2. ^ "Moran now eyes U.S. Senate seat". Associated Press. November 8, 2008. Retrieved November 10, 2008. [dead link]
  3. ^ "Tiahrt preparing for Senate race in Kansas". Associated Press. November 21, 2008. Retrieved November 23, 2008. [dead link]
  4. ^ "Congressman Tiahrt Announces Senate Steering Committee - KWCH - Kansas News and Weather". KWCH. January 27, 2009. Archived from the original on February 5, 2009. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  5. ^ Clark, Matthew (June 5, 2010). "POLITICS BLOG: Earmarks, earmarks and more earmarks - Pittsburg, KS". Morning Sun. Archived from the original on July 26, 2011. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  6. ^ "Truth Test". YouTube. June 7, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  7. ^ "Jerry Moran Endorsements". Moran for Kansas. June 2, 2010. Archived from the original on June 26, 2010. Retrieved June 2, 2010.
  8. ^ a b c "Todd Tiahrt Endorsements". Todd Tiahrt for Kansas. June 2, 2010.
  9. ^ "Niet compatibele browser". Facebook. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. ^ Research 2000
  11. ^ Survey USA
  12. ^ Survey USA
  13. ^ Survey USA
  14. ^ Survey USA
  15. ^ Survey USA
  16. ^ Survey USA
  17. ^ Survey USA
  18. ^ a b Survey USA
  19. ^ a b Survey USA
  20. ^ a b Survey USA
  21. ^ a b "Kansas Primary results". Politico. August 3, 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
  22. ^ "State Sen. David Haley to enter race for U.S. Senate | Wichitopekington | Wichita Eagle Blogs". Blogs.kansas.com. Archived from the original on August 9, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  23. ^ "Moran squeezes past Tiahrt, looks forward to Johnston". KCUR-FM. Associated Press. August 4, 2010. Archived from the original on September 16, 2011. Retrieved August 4, 2010.
  24. ^ "The Hutchinson News Online Edition". Hutchnews.com. June 15, 2009. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  25. ^ "Canadian Press".[dead link]
  26. ^ "Wyandotte County voters buck statewide trend". BonnerSprings.com. Archived from the original on November 13, 2010. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
  27. ^ "Moran takes Senate seat - McPherson, KS - The McPherson Sentinel". Archived from the original on July 14, 2011. Retrieved November 9, 2010.
  28. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  29. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  30. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  31. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  32. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  33. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  34. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  36. ^ Survey USA
  37. ^ Survey USA
  38. ^ Survey USA
  39. ^ Survey USA
  40. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Kansas". fec.gov. Archived from the original on May 25, 2010. Retrieved August 22, 2010.
  41. ^ "2010 General Election - Official Vote Totals" (PDF). Kansas Secretary of State.
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Official candidate sites (Archived)
Debates