The 2010 United States Senate election in New York took place on November 2, 2010, along with elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer won re-election to a third term. Schumer won every county except for Wyoming, Tioga, and Hamilton counties.[1]
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 County results Schumer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Townsend: 40–50% 50–60% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
editIn the 2004 U.S. Senate election, Schumer had defeated Republican Assemblyman Howard Mills by a 71 to 24 percent margin. Schumer was highly popular in New York, and it was believed that any Republican contender would likely not fare well against him in 2010.[2] Schumer was heavily favored to retain his seat.[3]
In addition to this regular election, there was also a special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, who became the United States Secretary of State on January 21, 2009. In addition, there was the New York gubernatorial election. The existence of two other top-level statewide races, one with a Democratic incumbent perceived as vulnerable and the other an open race, respectively,[4] was believed to lead major New York Republicans to gravitate towards them rather than challenge the popular Schumer.[2][5]
Republican nomination
editConvention
editCandidates
edit- Gary Berntsen, retired CIA officer, received the party's endorsement on the second round of balloting[6]
- Martin Chicon, candidate for New York Senate in 2008[7] and New York Republican State Committee member from upper Manhattan.
- George Maragos, Nassau County Comptroller[8]
- James Staudenraus, Long Island resident and 2008 state assembly candidate[9]
- Jay Townsend, Republican strategist (finished second and also qualified for the primary)[6]
Results
editOnly two candidates, Berntsen and Townsend, obtained at least 25% of the vote at the New York State Republican Convention on June 1, 2010. Berntsen came in first,[10] but still needed to win the primary in order to win the Republican nomination. Berntsen lost the primary to Jay Townsend.[11]
Primary
editCandidates
edit- Gary Berntsen
- Jay Townsend
Results
edit
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jay Townsend | 234,440 | 55.41% | |
| Republican | Gary Berntsen | 188,628 | 44.59% | |
| Total votes | 423,068 | 100.00% | ||
General election
editCandidates
edit- Anti-Prohibition Party: Randy Credico
- Conservative Party of New York: Jay Townsend
- Democratic Party: Chuck Schumer
- Green Party: Colia Clark
- Libertarian Party: Randy Credico
- Republican Party: Jay Townsend
- Taxpayers Party: Gary Berntsen
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[13] | Solid D | October 26, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[14] | Safe D | October 22, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[15] | Safe D | October 26, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Safe D | October 21, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[17] | Safe D | October 26, 2010 |
Fundraising
edit| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Schumer (D) | $17,302,006 | $11,824,587 | $16,048,482 | $0 |
| Jay Townsend (R) | $197,365 | $180,693 | $16,671 | $105,854 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[18] | ||||
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chuck Schumer (D) |
Jay Townsend (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College[19] | May 17–20, 2010 | 808 | ± 3.4% | 63% | 24% | — | 13% |
| Siena College[19] | June 7–9, 2010 | 808 | ± 3.4% | 60% | 26% | — | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports[20] | June 16, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 33% | 6% | 6% |
| Siena College[19] | July 12, 2010 | 808 | ± 3.4% | 63% | 26% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | September 16, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 58% | 36% | 3% | 4% |
| Survey USA[22] | September 20, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 4.2% | 54% | 33% | 10% | 3% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion[23] | October 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 63% | 27% | 6% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | October 19, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 59% | 31% | 5% | 5% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion[24] | October 28–29, 2010 | 541 | ± 4.2% | 61% | 35% | 4% | — |
| Siena College[25] | October 27–30, 2010 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 64% | 32% | — | 2% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Chuck Schumer | 2,686,043 | 58.47% | ||
| Working Families | Chuck Schumer | 183,672 | 4.00% | ||
| Independence | Chuck Schumer | 177,396 | 3.86% | ||
| Total | Chuck Schumer (incumbent) | 3,047,111 | 66.33% | −5.89 | |
| Republican | Jay Townsend | 1,238,947 | 26.97% | ||
| Conservative | Jay Townsend | 240,777 | 5.24% | ||
| Total | Jay Townsend | 1,479,724 | 32.21% | +8.02 | |
| Green | Colia Clark | 42,340 | 0.92% | +0.62 | |
| Libertarian | Randy Credico | 24,863 | 0.54% | +0.24 | |
| Total votes | 4,594,038 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
editAftermath
editCredico sued the New York State Board of Elections under the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment because of this unfair treatment regarding ballot access. Despite being nominated by both the Libertarian Party and the Anti-Prohibition Party, in most jurisdictions, he only appeared on the ballot once. On June 19, 2013, the Federal District Court for the Eastern District of New York ruled in favor of Credico.[28] The New York State Board of Elections did not appeal this decision.[29]
References
edit- ^ Richberg, Keith B. (December 2, 2008). "A Rush for Clinton's Senate Seat". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 18, 2008.
- ^ a b Saltonsall, David (February 1, 2009). "Sen. Chuck Schumer unlikely to see competition in 2010 reelection bid". New York Daily News. Retrieved February 2, 2009.
- ^ Silver, Nate (December 8, 2008). "2010 Senate Rankings, Revised and Extended". FiveThirtyEight.com. Archived from the original on February 4, 2009. Retrieved January 24, 2009.
- ^ Lovett, Kenneth (March 23, 2009). "New Siena Poll finds Gov. David Paterson's approval rating at just 19%". New York: Nydailynews.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- ^ "Senate Races 2010". VoteFromAbroad.org. Retrieved December 18, 2008. [dead link]
- ^ a b McKenna, Chris (June 2, 2010). "Townsend trails Berntsen at state GOP convention". Times Herald-Record. Archived from the original on June 16, 2011. Retrieved August 17, 2010.
- ^ "Martin Chicon NY-US Senator 2010 Republican Candidate NYC Sat 10/3/09 - AOL Video". Video.aol.co.uk. Archived from the original on September 20, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- ^ "Nassau Comptroller Eyeing Schumer Challenge". Capitaltonight.com. April 15, 2010. Archived from the original on August 15, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- ^ "Latest count on U.S. Senate candidates: 22 | Politics on the Hudson". Polhudson.lohudblogs.com. May 12, 2010. Archived from the original on May 19, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- ^ Trygstad, Kyle (June 2, 2010). "NY GOP Chooses Berntsen Against Schumer". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
- ^ "Townsend Wins GOP Primary For Senate Seat". CBS New York. Associated Press. September 14, 2010. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
- ^ "New York State Board of Elections - Statewide Republican US Senator Primary - 6 year - Full Term" (PDF). NYS Board of Elections. September 14, 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 23, 2012. Retrieved January 28, 2017.
- ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for New York". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b c Siena College
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Survey USA
- ^ Angus Reid Public Opinion
- ^ Angus Reid Public Opinion
- ^ Siena College
- ^ "New York Election Results". The New York Times.
- ^ "NYS Board of Elections U.S. Senator Election Returns November 2, 2010" (PDF). New York State BOE. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 30, 2016. Retrieved January 28, 2017.
- ^ "New York Libertarian Party Wins Lawsuit Against Discriminatory Election Law | Ballot Access News". June 20, 2013.
- ^ "New York State Changes Mind, Won't Appeal Credico Decision | Ballot Access News". July 12, 2013.
External links
edit- New York State Board of Elections
- U.S. Congress candidates for New York at Project Vote Smart
- New York U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
- New York Polls graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: New York Senate from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 New York Senate Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 New York Senate Race from CQ Politics
- Race profile from The New York Times