The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.
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| Turnout | 72.18% 2.32[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Hill: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.[2] With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.[3] This was the last time anyone other than Greg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard[5]
- Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext
- Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps[6]
Withdrew
edit- Larry Jent, state senator[7]
Declined
edit- John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana[8]
- Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman[8]
- Dave Wanzenried, state senator[9]
- Pat Williams, former U.S. representative[10]
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock |
Larry Jent |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 573 | ± 4.1% | 70% | 6% | — | 24% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 76,738 | 86.6 | |
| Democratic | Heather Margolis | 11,823 | 13.4 | |
| Total votes | 88,561 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Bob Fanning, retired businessman[13]
- Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative[14]
- Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012)[15]
- Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst[18]
- Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator[19]
- Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director[20]
- Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee[21]
- Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party[22]
- Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner[23]
- Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner[24]
- Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol[25]
- Corey Stapleton, former state senator[26]
- Running mate: Bob Keenan, former president of the Montana Senate[27]
Withdrew
edit- Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate[28]
- Drew Turiano, real estate investor[29][30]
Declined
edit- Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)[31]
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Essmann |
Bob Fanning |
Rick Hill |
Neil Livingstone |
Jim Lynch |
Ken Miller |
Jim O'Hara |
Corey Stapleton |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[32] | April 26–29, 2012 | 403 | ± 4.88% | — | 1% | 33% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling[33] | November 28–30, 2011 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 5% | 1% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 35% |
Results
edit
Hill
- Hill—51-60%
- Hill—41-50%
- Hill—31-40%
- Hill—21-30%
Stapleton
- Stapleton—31-40%
- Stapleton—21-30%
Miller
- Miller—51-60%
- Miller—41-50%
- Miller—31-40%
- Miller—21-30%
O'Hara
- O'Hara—51-60%
- O'Hara—31-40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Hill | 46,802 | 34.4 | |
| Republican | Corey Stapleton | 24,661 | 18.1 | |
| Republican | Ken Miller | 24,496 | 18.0 | |
| Republican | Jim O'Hara | 16,653 | 12.2 | |
| Republican | Neil Livingstone | 12,038 | 8.8 | |
| Republican | Jim Lynch | 8,323 | 6.1 | |
| Republican | Bob Fanning | 3,087 | 2.3 | |
| Total votes | 136,060 | 100.0 | ||
General election
editCandidates
edit- Steve Bullock (D), Montana attorney general
- Running mate: John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
- Rick Hill (R), former U.S. representative
- Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator
- Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman[34]
- Running mate: Marc Mulcahy[14]
Debate
edit- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[35] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[37] | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[38] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
editAggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[39] | September 27 – November 3, 2012 | November 3, 2012 | 44.0% | 45.7% | 10.3% | Hill +1.7% |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[40] | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon[41] | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[42] | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 7% |
| Montana State University[43] | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 38% | 40% | 2% | 20% |
| Mason-Dixon[44] | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 43% | 2% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling[45] | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 39% | 8% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 39% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 38% | 39% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 37% | 39% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[47] | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ± 2.9% | 31% | 41% | — | 28% |
Hypothetical polling
With Bohlinger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 40% | — | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Bohlinger (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 33% | — | 28% |
With Bullock
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 42% | 30% | — | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 33% | — | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 41% | 29% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[32] | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 40% | 31% | — | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 38% | 34% | — | 28% |
With Jent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 39% | — | 35% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Neil Livingstone (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 26% | 30% | — | 44% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Larry Jent (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[11] | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ± 2.4% | 25% | 33% | — | 42% |
With Wanzenried
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Jeff Essmann (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 31% | 33% | — | 36% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Rick Hill (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 40% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Wanzenried (D) |
Ken Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[46] | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 35% | — | 35% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 236,450 | 48.90% | −16.57% | |
| Republican | Rick Hill | 228,879 | 47.34% | +14.82% | |
| Libertarian | Ron Vandevender | 18,160 | 3.76% | +1.75% | |
| Total votes | 483,489 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
edit- Beaverhead (largest city: Dillon)
- Broadwater (largest city: Townsend)
- Carbon (largest city: Red Lodge)
- Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
- Custer (largest city: Miles City)
- Daniels (largest city: Scobey)
- Dawson (Largest city: Glendive)
- Fallon (largest city: Baker)
- Fergus (largest city: Lewistown)
- Flathead (largest city: Kalispell)
- Golden Valley (largest city: Ryegate)
- Granite (largest city: Philipsburg)
- Jefferson (largest city: Clancy)
- Judith Basin (largest city: Stanford)
- Liberty (largest city: Chester)
- Lincoln (largest city: Libby)
- Madison (largest city: Ennis)
- McCone (largest city: Circle)
- Mineral (largest city: Superior)
- Park (largest city: Livingston)
- Phillips (largest city: Malta)
- Pondera (largest city: Conrad)
- Powell (largest city: Deer Lodge)
- Prairie (largest city: Terry)
- Ravalli (largest city: Hamilton)
- Richland (largest city: Sidney)
- Rosebud (largest city: Colstrip)
- Sanders (largest city: Thompson Falls)
- Sheridan (Largest city: Plentywood)
- Stillwater (largest city: Columbus)
- Teton (largest city: Choteau)
- Toole (largest city: Shelby)
- Treasure (largest city: Hysham)
- Valley (largest city: Glasgow)
- Wheatland (largest city: Harlowton)
- Wibaux (largest city: Wibaux)
- Yellowstone (largest city: Billings)
Notes
edit- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
edit- ^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
- ^ Michael Barone, et al. The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
- ^ Charles S. Johnson (November 6, 2012). "Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor". Montana Standard.
- ^ Catanese, David (September 7, 2011). "Bullock joins Montana governor's race". Politico. Retrieved September 7, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 9, 2012). "Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official". Independent Record. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor". KXLF-TV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 8, 2012). "Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
- ^ a b Johnson, Charles S. (June 12, 2011). "Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved June 15, 2011.
- ^ Charles S. Johnson (July 7, 2011). "Wanzenried ends run for governor". Billings Gazette.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (October 4, 2011). "3 more GOP candidates running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved October 5, 2011.
- ^ a b Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012). "Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ Banks, Marnee (February 13, 2012). "MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate". KTVQ. Archived from the original on January 19, 2015. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 6, 2010). "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Reece, Myers (January 18, 2012). "Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ "Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race". Associated Press. February 12, 2011. Retrieved February 12, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 10, 2011). "Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ "Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor". KTVQ. October 13, 2011. Archived from the original on October 23, 2011. Retrieved October 14, 2011.
- ^ Sherman, David (March 12, 2012). "Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race". KRTV. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ Dennison, Mike (August 9, 2010). "Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Reece, Myers (February 6, 2012). "Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Archived from the original on July 13, 2011. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (July 19, 2010). "Stapleton bidding for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012). "Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 11, 2012.
- ^ "Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor". Billingsgazette.com. January 27, 2012. Retrieved January 5, 2018.
- ^ [1] [dead link]
- ^ "Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid". Flathead Beacon. January 17, 2012. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 11, 2010). "Rehberg focusing on current job". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 1, 2012). "Governor candidates talk about state economy". Independent Record. Retrieved March 14, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Montana State University
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Public Policy Polling
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
External links
editOfficial campaign websites (Archived)