Wikipedia

2012 United States Senate election in Tennessee

For related races, see 2012 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2012 Tennessee Senate election.

The 2012 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the general election including the 2012 U.S. presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Bob Corker won a second term in a landslide, defeating Democrat Marck Clayton, carrying all but two counties in the state.

2012 United States Senate election in Tennessee
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout61.86% Increase[1] 11.89 pp
 
Nominee Bob Corker Mark Clayton
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,506,443 705,882
Percentage 64.89% 30.41%
Corker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Clayton:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Corker
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Corker
Republican

Corker narrowly flipped reliably Democratic Davidson County, home to Nashville, which had not voted Republican on the presidential level since 1988. He faced Democratic nominee Mark E. Clayton[2] as well as several third-party candidates and several independents in this election.

Corker easily won the Republican primary with 85% of the vote, and anti-LGBT activist and conspiracy theorist Clayton won the Democratic nomination with 30% of the vote, despite raising no money and having a website that was four years out of date.[3][4][5]

The next day Tennessee's Democratic Party disavowed Clayton over his active role in the Public Advocate of the United States, which they described as a "known hate group". They blamed his victory among candidates for whom the TNDP provided little forums to become known on the fact that his name appeared first on the ballot, and said they would do nothing to help his campaign, urging Democrats to vote for "the write-in candidate of their choice" in November.[6] One of the Democratic candidates, Larry Crim, filed a petition seeking to offer the voters a new primary in which to select a Democratic nominee among the remaining candidates the party had affirmed as bona fide and as a preliminary motion sought a temporary restraining order against certification of the results, but after a judge denied the temporary order Crim withdrew his petition.[7]

Background

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The incumbent in the race, former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, was elected in 2006 with 50.7% of the vote in a win against U.S. representative Harold Ford, Jr.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Fred R. Anderson
  • Mark Twain Clemens, unemployed
  • Bob Corker, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • James Durkan, businessman
  • Brenda Lenard, businesswoman & doctoral student
  • Zach Poskevich, technology consultant

Publicly Speculated, but Declined

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker 		More conservative
challenger 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8] February 9–13, 2011 400 ±4.9% 38% 43% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker 		Marsha
Blackburn 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8] February 9–13, 2011 400 ±4.9% 50% 30% — 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker 		Hank
Williams, Jr. 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8] February 9–13, 2011 400 ±4.9% 66% 13% — 21%

Results

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Tennessee Republican primary[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bob Corker (Incumbent) 389,483 85.25%
Republican Zach Poskevich 28,299 6.19%
Republican Fred Anderson 15,942 3.49%
Republican Mark Twain Clemens 11,788 2.58%
Republican Brenda Lenard 11,378 2.49%
Total votes 456,890 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Results

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Results by county:
  Clayton
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Davis
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Overall
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
  Hancock
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark E. Clayton 48,126 29.99%
Democratic Gary Gene Davis 24,789 15.45%
Democratic Park Overall 24,263 15.12%
Democratic Larry Crim 17,383 10.83%
Democratic Benjamin Roberts 16,369 10.20%
Democratic David Hancock 16,167 10.08
Democratic Thomas Owens 13,366 8.33
Total votes 160,463 100.00

General election

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Candidates

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  • Bob Corker (Republican), incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Mark E. Clayton (Democratic)[10]
  • Shaun Crowell (Libertarian)
  • Martin Pleasant (Green)[11][12]
  • Kermit Steck (Constitution)[12][13]
  • David Gatchell (independent)
  • James Higdon (independent)
  • Michel Joseph Long (independent)
  • Troy Stephen Scoggin (independent)
  • Jacob Maurer (Write-In)[14]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Solid R November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Safe R November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[17] Safe R November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[18] Safe R November 5, 2012

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker (R) 		Mark
Clayton (D) 		Other Undecided
Issues and Answers Network Inc.[19] October 16–21, 2011 609 ±4% 59% 21% 4% 15%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker (R) 		Phil
Bredesen (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] February 9–13, 2011 500 ±4.4% 41% 46% — 12%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker (R) 		Jim
Cooper (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] February 9–13, 2011 500 ±4.4% 50% 32% — 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker (R) 		Harold
Ford, Jr. (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] February 9–13, 2011 500 ±4.4% 55% 32% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker (R) 		Bart
Gordon (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] February 9–13, 2011 500 ±4.4% 52% 29% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker (R) 		Al
Gore (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] February 9–13, 2011 500 ±4.4% 53% 38% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Bob
Corker (R) 		Tim
McGraw (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] February 9–13, 2011 500 ±4.4% 50% 28% — 22%

Results

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Despite the TN Democratic Party encouraging write-in voting, the general election only saw 0.05% cast write-in votes. Clayton significantly underperformed compared to Barack Obama, running for re-election to the presidency on the same day. Clayton got about 9% and 254,827 votes fewer than Obama.

United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2012[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bob Corker (incumbent) 1,506,443 64.89% +14.18%
Democratic Mark Clayton 705,882 30.41% −17.59%
Green Martin Pleasant 38,472 1.66% +1.52%
Independent Shaun Crowell 20,936 0.90% N/A
Constitution Kermit Steck 18,620 0.80% N/A
Independent James Higdon 8,085 0.35% N/A
Independent Michael Joseph Long 8,080 0.35% N/A
Independent Troy Stephen Scoggin 7,148 0.31% N/A
Independent David Gatchell 6,523 0.28% N/A
n/a Write-ins 1,288 0.05% N/A
Total votes 2,321,477 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Corker carried 8 of the 9 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[22][23]

District Corker Clayton Representative
1st 76.58% 19.24%
Phil Roe
2nd 72.75% 21.24% John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd 70.60% 25.60% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 69.30% 26.31% Scott DesJarlais
5th 50.21% 43.32% Jim Cooper
6th 73.32% 22.04% Diane Black
7th 69.62% 25.75% Marsha Blackburn
8th 70.26% 26.40% Stephen Fincher
9th 28.56% 67.00% Steve Cohen

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2012". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 6, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ^ "2012's worst candidate? With Mark Clayton, Tennessee Democrats hit bottom." by David A. Fahrenthold, Washington Post, October 22, 2012, Retrieved 2012-10-23, ""If there are people who don't believe that there's a campaign here, then guess what? They can come to Tennessee, if they're a voter, and they can see Mark E. Clayton, and next to Mark E. Clayton there's going to be a 'D,' " he said on the phone. "Like it or not, Mark Clayton is the Democratic nominee in Tennessee.""
  3. ^ Murphy, Tim (August 3, 2012). "Dems Nominate Anti-Gay Conspiracy Theorist for Senate". Mother Jones. Retrieved August 21, 2012.
  4. ^ Fahrenthold, David A. (May 19, 2023). "2012's worst candidate? With Mark Clayton, Tennessee Democrats hit bottom". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  5. ^ Kenny's Sideshow (August 5, 2012). Democractic Primary Winner for Senate in Tennessee Mark Clayton Responds to Attacks. Retrieved June 11, 2024 – via YouTube.
  6. ^ Cass, Michael (August 3, 2012). "Tennessee Democratic Party disavows Senate nominee". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 4, 2012.
  7. ^ Sisk, Chas (August 17, 2012). "Mark Clayton victory in Democratic primary upheld by Nashville judge". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 21, 2012.
  8. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling
  9. ^ a b "Tennessee Secretary of State Unofficial Election Results". Secretary of State of Tennessee. Retrieved August 2, 2012.
  10. ^ "clayton forus' – Products I Tried To Satisfy Myself". Retrieved December 30, 2022.
  11. ^ "Candidates GPTN".
  12. ^ a b Winger, Richard (February 3, 2012). "Tennessee Ballot Access Law for New and Minor Parties Struck Down". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 4, 2012.
  13. ^ "Current Candidates « The Constitution Party of Tennessee". Archived from the original on October 21, 2012. Retrieved August 4, 2012.
  14. ^ "Jacob Maurer - US Senate Candidate - Home". Archived from the original on June 6, 2013. Retrieved September 27, 2012.
  15. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  16. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  17. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  18. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  19. ^ Issues and Answers Network Inc.
  20. ^ a b c d e f Public Policy Polling
  21. ^ State of Tennessee. November 6, 2012. General Election
  22. ^ "Detailed CD Results".
  23. ^ Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos.
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Official campaign websites

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