Wikipedia

2014 Salvadoran presidential election

Presidential elections were held in El Salvador on 2 February 2014,[1] with a second round held on 9 March since no candidate won an outright majority.[2] The primary candidates were Vice-President Salvador Sánchez Cerén of the FMLN, San Salvador Mayor Norman Quijano of ARENA, and Former President Antonio "Tony" Saca.[3] Saca represented GANA, the National Conciliation Party, and the Christian Democratic Party in the UNIDAD coalition. Incumbent President Mauricio Funes was ineligible to run for a consecutive second term.[4] Sánchez Cerén and Quijano emerged as the contestants in the runoff held on 9 March in which Sánchez Cerén was declared the victor.[5]

2014 Salvadoran presidential election
← 2009 2 February 2014 (first round)
9 March 2014 (second round)		 2019 →
Registered4,955,107
Turnout55.32% (first round) Decrease 7.60pp
60.89% (second round) Increase 2.43pp
 
Nominee Salvador Sánchez Cerén Norman Quijano
Party FMLN ARENA
Running mate Óscar Ortiz René Portillo Cuadra
Popular vote 1,495,815 1,489,451
Percentage 50.11% 49.89%
President before election

Mauricio Funes
FMLN

Elected President

Salvador Sánchez Cerén
FMLN

Background

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On 22 October 2012, the Supreme Electoral Tribune increased the total number of voting centers and assigned eligible voters to the voting center closest to their address. Previously, eligible voters were assigned to municipal voting centers alphabetically, forcing some to travel longer distances to vote. The 2014 presidential election will be the first election to follow such rules.[6]

On 24 January 2013, the Legislative Assembly passed legislation to allow Salvadorans living abroad to vote in all future elections. 92% of Salvadorans living abroad are based in the United States and Canada. According to the Supreme Electoral Tribune, there are 200,000 Salvadorans living internationally who are eligible to vote.[7] The Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front's (FMLN) presidential candidate, Salvador Sánchez Cerén, visited southern California to meet with Salvadoran Americans and tour their communities in August 2013.[8]

In regards to the high crime rate, there has been a two-year-old truce between the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18 gangs that has halved the murder rate.[9] Likewise, the 2012 Salvadoran legislative and local elections resulted in a strong showing for the opposition Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) due to the rising crime rates.

Candidates

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The FMLN selected, Sánchez Cerén, a former rebel during the civil war, as the party's candidate. ARENA selected Norman Quijano as its candidate. The Unity Movement selected former president Antonio Saca with an announcement in February 2013 that had the backing of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and the National Coalition Party (PCN).[10][2]

Party Candidate Running mate
 
Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front
Farabundo Martí
National Liberation
Front
 
Salvador Sánchez Cerén
 Salvador Sánchez Cerén
41st Vice President of El Salvador
(2009–2014)
Minister of Education
(2009–2012)
Deputy of the Legislative Assembly
(2000–2009)
 
Óscar Ortiz
 Óscar Ortiz
Mayor of Santa Tecla
(2000–2014)
Deputy of the Legislative Assembly
(1994–2000)
 
Nationalist Republican Alliance
Nationalist
Republican
Alliance
 
Norman Quijano
 Norman Quijano
Mayor of San Salvador
(2009–2015)
Deputy of the Legislative Assembly
(1994–2009)
 
René Portillo Cuadra
 René Portillo Cuadra
 
Unity Movement
Unity Movement[a]
 
Antonio Saca
 Antonio Saca
40th President of El Salvador
(2004–2009)
 
Félix Ulloa
 Francisco Laínez [fr]
Minister of Foreign Affairs
(2004–2009)
Salvadoran
Patriotic
Fraternity
 
Óscar Lemus
 Óscar Lemus
 
Adriana Bonilla
 Adriana Bonilla
 
Salvadoran Progressive Party
Salvadoran
Progressive
Party [es]
 
René Rodríguez Hurtado
 René Rodríguez Hurtado
 
Rafael Menjívar
 Rafael Menjívar
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On 31 July 2013, a professor from the National University of El Salvador presented an argument to the Supreme Court on the constitutionality of a former president's candidacy. The legal language regarding second terms is unclear as the constitution prohibits two consecutive terms, but has been described as "murky" on plural non-consecutive terms. Saca claimed that this was an attempt for the FMLN and ARENA to exclude him from the presidential election.[11] On 6 September, the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court ruled that only party flags, not candidates faces, will appear on the ballot in the presidential election. Saca, as a former president, was widely recognized by Salvadorans, but his Unity coalition was not. He provided polling evidence to back his claim. Due to the court ruling, Unity proposed putting Saca's face on their party flag.[12]

Campaign

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Quijano said that he would deploy the army to fight street gangs amidst elevated crime in El Salvador. Sánchez Cerén, on the other hand, said he would forge a political pact in order to pass reforms through a divided Congress that would tackle crime and anemic economic growth. He further said that he would tackle tax evasion and loopholes while also introducing tax incentives for investment in such industries as energy, renovating San Salvador's Comalapa International Airport and improve port facilities. He also said that he would seek to join Petrocaribe.[13]

Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front

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Sánchez Cerén and Óscar Ortiz stated that the "three pillars" of their program is employment, security, and education. In developing this program, the candidates received proposals from representatives of various sectors of society. They have argued that to achieve higher levels of employment these requires expanding public-private partnerships, sponsoring a public development bank, and promoting important industries. In regards to education, the candidates have promised more free food for children in school, a policy of "one child, one computer," and bilingual education. Sánchez Cerén has announced plans for the nation's first "digital university" and increased transportation funding around universities. To address the problems of crime and security, the candidates have proposed increasing funding for new police technologies, promoting campaigns against drug abuse, creating education rehabilitation centers for those convicted of minor offenses and drug crimes, and training community peace officers.[14]

Sánchez Cerén was invited as a closing speaker to the FMLN's "Winter Cultural Dialogues," in which he expressed solidarity with the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas. He expressed a desire for an alternative development models, such as the types seen in nations with left-wing governments in South America. The notion of "buen vivir," or "living well," was prominent in his political discussion. He said, "Living Well is a current of ideas, of values, of social proposals and policies that runs through Latin America, that tells us it is possible to live in a society governed by equality and fraternity."[15] He stated he would have the nation join Petrocaribe, a multi-national oil alliance that purchases oil from Venezuela, which would allow the nation to buy oil at 60% its current costs, thus freeing up to $640 million to fund social investments proposals.[16]

Sánchez Cerén has proposed the creation of a Ministry of Women. He has stated a plan for more maternity hospitals, domestic violence shelters, and expanding the Centros Ciudad Mujer, translated as "City of Women Centers," which provides services and healthcare to women.[14]

Nationalist Republican Alliance

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Quijano has primarily focused on reforming the economy for higher employment and stronger economic growth. He proposes to encourage the financing of small businesses and to help them make stronger returns. He wants legal reforms in the labor market to provide more mobility and flexibility for youth. Also, he has promoted laws for equal pay for women. He desires to see the government invest through public-private partnerships in building ports, airports, irrigation systems, railways, and highways to encourage intranational and international. He has proposed reforming the Ministry of Agriculture to provide more funding to farmers, help establish new farming technologies, facilitating the marketing of their products on the global market, and create a "true agro-export industry.[17]

Unity Movement

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On 14 October, Saca selected former ARENA politician Francisco Laínez, who defected from ARENA in March. He served as Minister of Foreign Relations during Saca's presidency. Saca praised Laínez's record in foreign political and economic relations.[18][19]

Saca announced that as president, he would intend to cut "red tape" for international investment through cutting cumbersome paperwork. He has stated that his policies will create employment for young people in the private sector. He has proposed continuing social investments in healthcare begun under the FMLN, such as the Centros Ciudad Mujer. He states his administration will support Salvadorans abroad and will fight for immigration reform in the United States. Part of his platform includes developing a Vice Ministry of Livestock within the Ministry of Agriculture, aiming to support the dairy and livestock industries. He has promoted a program called "Semilla Mejorada," or "Improved Seed", which would decrease regulations regarding pesticides, insecticides, and would finance the introduction of newer agricultural equipment. Also, he had discussed founding a "land bank" to provide credit to farmers.[20] Despite his efforts to go back to power, on 2 February the candidate came third with only 11.4% of the votes and was not able to continue the presidential race on the second round.[21]

Debates

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On 12 January, Quijano, Sánchez Cerén, Saca, Óscar Lemus of the Salvadoran Patriotic Fraternity (FPS), and René Rodríguez Hurtado of the Salvadoran Progressive Party (PPS) had their first debate ahead of the presidential election. The debate was moderated by Mexican journalist Armando Guzmán of Univision. Observers were critical of the debate. Roberto Rubio of El Salvador’s National Foundation for Development said: “It wasn’t really a debate. In a debate, there’s confrontation between ideas, and argument against argument." President Mauricio Funes even described the debate as "more of the same."[22]

Opinion polls

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First round

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Pollster Date Sample size Sánchez
FMLN 		Quijano
ARENA 		Saca
UNIDAD 		Others Unsure/
No ans. 		Lead
First round 2 February 2014 – 48.93% 38.96% 11.44% 0.67% – 9.97%
IUDOP-UCA[23] 4–9 Jan 2014 1,580 37.2% 30.5% 21.2% 1.9% 9.2% 6.7%
Mitofsky[24] 3–5 Jan 2014 – 31.8% 35.5% 16% – – 3.7%
CS-Sondea[25] 27 Nov–8 Dec 2013 7,284 39.1% 34.2% 15.8% 1.2% 9.7% 4.9%
Data Research[26] 23–25 Nov 2013 1,248 27.6% 27.8% 24% – – 0.2%
CIOPS[27] 9–20 Nov 2013 1,526 38.4% 33.4% 16.6% 2.1% 5.0% 5%
Data Research[28] 28 Sept–1 Oct 2013 1,287 30.4% 25.2% 25.5% 1.8% 15.6% 4.9%
Data Research[29] 16–19 Aug 2013 1,330 29.2% 27.4% 27.8% 1.5% 14% 1.4%
CS-Sondea[30] 20–27 July 2013 1,284 34.5% 26.9% 21.7% – – 7.6%
Mitofsky[31] 12–14 July 2013 1,000 32% 33% 18% 2% – 1%
JABES[32] 6–9 July 2013 1,204 28.9% 27.8% 27.1% 0.5% 15.7% 1.1%
29.9% 28.9% 27.7% 0.52% – 1%
CS-Sondea[33] June 2013 – 34.6% 28.3% 24.5% – – 6.3%
CID-Gallup[34] 30 May 2013 – 31% 31% 22% – – Tie
CIOPS[35] 9–16 May 2013 1,277 36% 24.9% 28.0% 11.1% – 8%
Mitofsky[36] 15 April 2013 – 32% 33% 18% – – 1%
La Prensa Gráfica[37] 16–23 Nov 2012 1,268 16.1% 25.6% 6.3% 19.1% 20.7% 9.5%
Mitofsky[38] 9–11 Nov 2012 1,000 30% 38% – 21% 10% 8%

Second round

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Pollster Date Sample size Sánchez
FMLN 		Quijano
ARENA 		Unsure/
No ans. 		Lead
Second round 9 March 2014 – 50.11% 49.89% – 0.22%
UFG[39] 15–18 Feb 2014 1,320 60.3% 39.7% – 20.6%
53.9% 35.5% 10.6% 18.4%
CID-Gallup[40] 12–16 Feb 2014 1,007 58% 42% – 16%
IUDOP-UCA[23] 4–9 Jan 2014 1,580 46.2% 39.6% 6.8% 6.6%
Data Research[26] 23–25 Nov 2013 1,248 37.4% 37.9% – 0.5%
Data Research[28] 28 Sept–1 Oct 2013 1,287 36.5% 30.4% 33.1% 6.1%
Data Research[29] 16–19 August 2013 1,330 36.1% 38% 25.9% 1.9%

Other scenarios

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The following polls display run-off scenarios that include Antonio Saca, who did not qualify for the second round.

Quijano vs. Saca

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Pollster Date Sample size Quijano
ARENA 		Saca
UNIDAD 		Unsure/
No ans. 		Lead
Data Research[26] 23–25 Nov 2013 1,248 30.9% 32.1% – 1.2%
Data Research[28] 28 Sept–1 Oct 2013 1,287 27.3% 30.9% 41.8% 3.6%
Data Research[29] 16–19 August 2013 1,330 32.7% 35.3% 31.9% 2.6%

Sánchez Cerén vs. Saca

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Pollster Date Sample size Sánchez
FMLN 		Saca
UNIDAD 		Unsure/
No ans. 		Lead
Data Research[26] 23–25 Nov 2013 1,248 33.4% 35% – 1.6%
Data Research[28] 28 Sept–1 Oct 2013 1,287 28.7% 34.5% 36.8% 5.8%
Data Research[29] 16–19 August 2013 1,330 33.7% 38.5% 27.9% 4.8%

Conduct

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ARENA and FMLN supporters briefly scuffled on voting day. Security was tightened on the day as about 4.9 million voters were eligible to cast their ballots. Sánchez Cerén said that he was "open to the participation of different sectors" and would seek to reach out to others to create "a grand national accord;" Quijano, who voted at a centre set-up at a school in western San Salvador, praising the "peaceful elections;" and Saca said that he was "optimistic" while voting. In the early hours of the day, supporters of each party set up stands with their party's colours across San Salvador and helped voters find their polling centres.[41]

Results

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CandidateRunning matePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Salvador Sánchez CerénÓscar OrtizFarabundo Martí National Liberation Front1,315,76848.931,495,81550.11
Norman QuijanoRené Portillo CuadraNationalist Republican Alliance1,047,59238.961,489,45149.89
Antonio SacaFrancisco LainezUnity Movement307,60311.44
René Rodríguez HurtadoAdriana BonillaSalvadoran Progressive Party11,3140.42
Óscar LemusRafael MenjívarSalvadoran Patriotic Fraternity6,6590.25
Total2,688,936100.002,985,266100.00
Valid votes2,688,93698.102,985,26698.95
Invalid/blank votes52,1381.9031,6921.05
Total votes2,741,074100.003,016,958100.00
Registered voters/turnout4,955,10755.324,955,10760.89
Source: TSE, TSE

By department

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First round

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Department Sánchez Quijano Saca Rodríguez Lemus
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Ahuachapán 69,422 49.1 51,507 36.4 19,549 13.8 623 00.4 316 00.2
Cabañas 23,691 36.3 32,731 50.2 8,382 12.9 267 00.4 122 00.2
Chalatenango 43,633 47.0 39,494 42.6 9,118 9.8 354 00.4 156 00.2
Cuscatlán 50,609 44.9 46,118 40.9 15,407 13.7 417 00.4 316 00.2
La Libertad 146,254 45.1 137,909 42.5 37,611 11.6 1,458 4.5 1,052 00.3
La Paz 67,665 50.0 52,585 38.8 14,333 10.6 494 00.4 279 00.2
La Unión 49,253 52.5 36,638 36.6 7,266 7.7 503 00.5 186 00.2
Morazán 42,612 54.2 27,785 35.5 7,722 9.8 422 00.5 149 00.2
San Miguel 106,882 59.1 56,183 31.1 16,711 9.2 677 00.4 298 00.2
San Salvador 392,282 47.2 344,420 41.5 88,222 10.6 3,259 00.4 2,241 00.3
San Vicente 36,846 50.6 26,857 38.7 8,755 12.0 281 00.4 117 00.2
Santa Ana 103,904 45.9 87,683 38.7 32,844 14.5 1,188 00.5 742 00.3
Sonsonate 104,772 54.3 59,558 30.9 27,435 14.2 780 00.4 451 00.2
Usulután 76,786 55.1 47,525 34.1 14,112 10.1 578 00.4 276 00.2
Exterior 1,157 60.6 599 31.4 136 7.1 13 00.7 4 00.2
Source: Psephos

Second round

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Department Sánchez Quijano
Votes % Votes %
Ahuachapán 79,795 50.1 79,481 49.9
Cabañas 28,292 38.6 45,055 61.4
Chalatenango 53,248 51.6 50,016 48.4
Cuscatlán 57,525 46.3 66,840 53.7
La Libertad 166,083 46.5 190,837 53.5
La Paz 77,666 51.4 73,317 48.6
La Unión 55,051 49.6 55,991 50.4
Morazán 47,232 53.0 41,910 47.0
San Miguel 120,903 58.1 87,314 41.9
San Salvador 439,186 49.3 451,176 50.7
San Vicente 42,279 51.6 39,724 48.4
Santa Ana 121,405 47.6 133,606 52.4
Sonsonate 121,552 56.1 95,301 43.9
Usulután 87,350 53.9 74,797 46.1
Exterior 1,480 63.3 854 36.7
Source: Psephos

Reactions

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After voting ended in the first round, Sánchez Cerén said: "We won the first round ... we are sure that in the second round we will win by more than 10 points. We are going to work in the coming days to further unite," he added. "We are going to build new understandings, new alliances"[13] and "more than ever we need a new national accord, so that we do not have partisan policies but policies that are backed by all the people of El Salvador." He also attended a mass earlier on the day at the chapel where Archbishop Óscar Romero was assassinated prior to the Salvadoran Civil War.[9] Universidad Centroamericana estimated that Saca's supporters were likely to vote for Quijano in the run-off, but about 25 percent would support Sánchez Cerén and thus enable him to win the presidency.[13]

Notes

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  1. ^ Saca's campaign with the Unity Movement was supported by the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and the National Coalition Party (PCN).

References

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  1. ^ "CALENDARIO ELECTORAL 2014" (PDF). Spanish: Tribunal Supremo Electoral de El Salvador. p. 11. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 September 2013. Retrieved 9 July 2013.
  2. ^ a b Thale, Geoff (29 January 2014). "Background Info. on the Upcoming Elections in El Salvador". Washington Office on Latin America.
  3. ^ Allison, Mike (3 February 2013). "Predicting the results of El Salvador's next election". Al Jazeera English. Retrieved 9 July 2013.
  4. ^ "IFES Election Guide - Elections: El Salvador President 2014". www.electionguide.org.
  5. ^ "Former guerrilla commander wins El Salvador presidential election". Washington Post. 14 March 2014.
  6. ^ "TSE inicia la consulta ciudadana de validación de centros de votación". Spanish: Tribunal Supremo Electoral de El Salvador. Retrieved 12 July 2013.
  7. ^ Mills, Frederick B. (12 March 2013). "The 2014 Presidential Elections in El Salvador and the Transnational Electorate". Council of Hemispheric Affairs. Retrieved 1 August 2013.
  8. ^ "Golden State Newspapers". Golden State Newspapers.
  9. ^ a b "This page has been removed - News" – via www.theguardian.com.
  10. ^ "Ex presidente Antonio Saca volverá a buscar presidencia de El Salvador". Spanish: El Nacional. 25 February 2013. Archived from the original on 27 February 2013. Retrieved 12 July 2013.
  11. ^ "Electoral Update: Saca Announces Campaign Platform, Constitutionality of Candidacy Challenged - CISPES: Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador". CISPES: Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador.
  12. ^ "Electoral Update: Court Spurns Saca, Rejects Faces on Ballot". Archived from the original on 14 September 2013. Retrieved 14 September 2013.
  13. ^ a b c Renteria, Nelson. "El Salvador ex-rebel strongly placed to win run-off". Reuters.
  14. ^ a b "Salvador y Oscar garantizan empleo, seguridad y educación, en la Convención del FMLN" [Salvador and Oscar guarantee employment, security and education, in the FMLN Convention]. www.salvadoryoscar.com (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 7 September 2013.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  15. ^ ContraPunto, "‘El buen vivir’, eje de Diálogos culturales de invierno", July 16, 2013
  16. ^ "Electoral Update: FMLN approves government platform for 2014 presidency - CISPES: Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador". CISPES: Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador.
  17. ^ "Norman Quijano Presidente". normanquijano.com (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 21 February 2014. Retrieved 10 July 2022.
  18. ^ "Electoral Update: UNITY VP pick Spells ARENA vs. ARENA vs. FMLN this Winter - CISPES: Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador". CISPES: Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador.
  19. ^ "El Salvador's Ex-President Antonio Saca to compete for his old job. - Free Online Library". www.thefreelibrary.com.
  20. ^ http://tonysaca.sv Archived 2013-09-12 at the Wayback Machine
  21. ^ "El Salvador poll to go into run-off". 3 February 2014 – via www.bbc.com.
  22. ^ "2014 Election Blog: Breaking Down El Salvador's First Presidential Debate - AS/COA". AS/COA.
  23. ^ a b "Instituto Universitario de Opinión Pública" (PDF) (in Spanish). Central American University. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  24. ^ Nelson Renteria (14 January 2014). "El Salvador opposition party leads tight election race: poll". Reuters. San Salvador. Archived from the original on 9 July 2019. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  25. ^ "FMLN 44.6%, ARENA 39.2% y UNIDAD 13.9% según encuesta CS-Sondea". La Página (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 15 December 2013. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  26. ^ a b c d Israel Serrano. "FMLN 31.1%, UNIDAD 26.9% y ARENA 26.2%, según encuesta Data Research". La Página (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 10 February 2014. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  27. ^ "Instituto Universitario de Opinión Pública" (PDF) (in Spanish). Central American University. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  28. ^ a b c d Antonio Merala. "Sánchez Cerén 30.4%, Tony Saca 25.5% y Quijano 25.2% según Data Research". La Página (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 10 October 2013. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  29. ^ a b c d Antonio Merala. "Data Research: Sánchez Cerén 29.2%, Saca 27.8%, Quijano 27.4%". La Página (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 23 August 2013. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  30. ^ Israel Serrano. "Encuesta CS Sondea: Sánchez Cerén 34.5%, Quijano 26.9% y Saca 21.7%". La Página (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  31. ^ "Cerrada lucha entre ARENA y el FMLN según Mitofsky". elsalvador.com (in Spanish). 22 July 2013. Archived from the original on 23 July 2013. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  32. ^ José Zometa (19 July 2013). "Según encuesta JABES, disputa cerrada por las presidenciales del 2014". elsalvador.com (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 7 March 2016. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  33. ^ "FMLN y Sánchez Cerén consolidan su ventaja sobre ARENA: CS-Sondea". Diario Co Latino (in Spanish). 9 July 2013. Archived from the original on 15 July 2013. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  34. ^ "CID-GALLUP: El 67% de la población aprueba gestión de Funes". La Prensa Grafica (in Spanish). 30 May 2013. Archived from the original on 21 February 2014. Retrieved 12 July 2013.
  35. ^ "Instituto Universitario de Opinión Pública" (PDF) (in Spanish). Central American University. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  36. ^ "Cerrada contienda electoral por la presidencia 2014". elsalvador.com (in Spanish). 15 April 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2014. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  37. ^ "Instituto Universitario de Opinión Pública" (PDF). Central American University. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  38. ^ Rafael Mendoza López (19 November 2012). "Mitofsky: Quijano lleva la delantera a Sánchez C." elsalvador.com (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 20 November 2012. Retrieved 11 July 2022.
  39. ^ Gerardo Arbaiza (21 February 2014). "Ventaja de 20 puntos para el FMLN en encuesta UFG". Contra Punto (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 25 February 2014. Retrieved 12 July 2022.
  40. ^ ""FMLN aumenta su ventaja a 16 puntos para segunda vuelta, según CID-Gallup"". La Página. 18 February 2014. Archived from the original on 27 February 2014. Retrieved 18 February 2014.
  41. ^ "El Salvador votes in shadow of gang violence". www.aljazeera.com.
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