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2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

(Redirected from 2016 New Hampshire primaries)

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence, against the Democratic Party's nominee, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout69.1%[1]
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 348,526 345,790
Percentage 47.62% 47.25%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county

Clinton won the state with 47.62% of the vote, while Trump lost with 47.25%, by a 0.37% margin or 2,736 votes. This result nonetheless made New Hampshire 1.73% more Republican than the nation-at-large, and remains the last time that New Hampshire has voted to the right of the national environment. This marked the second-closest margin percentage in the presidential election, behind only Michigan, and was Clinton's closest margin of victory of any state. This is the closest that a Republican nominee has come to carrying New Hampshire since 2000, when George W. Bush became the last Republican to carry the state. This also marked the first of only two times that a non-incumbent Republican won the White House without New Hampshire (along with 2024), and one of only three times overall (along with 2004 and 2024) in which any Republican won without carrying the state.

As of the 2024 election, this is the most recent election where Hillsborough County has voted Republican.

Primary elections

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As per tradition and by New Hampshire electoral laws,[3] New Hampshire holds the primaries before any other state. As a result, candidates for nomination usually spend a long period campaigning in New Hampshire.

Democratic primary

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Main article: 2016 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary
 
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at a campaign event in Manchester
 
Senator Bernie Sanders at a campaign event in Hooksett

In the New Hampshire Democratic primary taking place on February 9, 2016, there were 24 pledged delegates and 8 super delegates that went to the Democratic National Convention. The pledged electors were allocated in this way. 16 delegates were allocated proportionally by congressional district (8 delegates per district). The other 8 delegates were allocated based on the statewide popular vote.[4]

Results

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New Hampshire Democratic primary, February 9, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Of total Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 152,193 60.14% 15 1 16
Hillary Clinton 95,355 37.68% 9 6 15
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 667 0.26%
Vermin Supreme 268 0.11%
David John Thistle 226 0.09%
Graham Schwass 143 0.06%
Steve Burke 108 0.04%
Rocky De La Fuente 96 0.04%
John Wolfe Jr. 54 0.02%
Jon Adams 53 0.02%
Lloyd Thomas Kelso 46 0.02%
Keith Russell Judd 44 0.02%
Eric Elbot 36 0.01%
Star Locke 33 0.01%
William D. French 29 0.01%
Mark Stewart Greenstein 29 0.01%
Edward T. O'Donnell 26 0.01%
James Valentine 24 0.01%
Robert Lovitt 22 0.01%
Michael Steinberg 21 0.01%
William H. McGaughey Jr. 19 0.01%
Henry Hewes 18 0.01%
Edward Sonnino 17 0.01%
Steven Roy Lipscomb 15 0.01%
Sam Sloan 15 0.01%
Brock C. Hutton 14 0.01%
Raymond Michael Moroz 8 0.00%
Richard Lyons Weil 8 0.00%
Write-ins[a] 3,475 1.37%
Uncommitted — 0 1 1
Total 253,062 100% 24 8 32
Sources:[6][7]

Republican primary

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Main article: 2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary
 
Businessman Donald Trump at a campaign event in Derry
 
Senator Marco Rubio at a campaign event in Manchester
 
Senator Ted Cruz at a campaign event in Manchester
 
Governor John Kasich at a campaign event in Nashua

The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 9, 2016, where there were 23 bound delegates which were allocated proportionally and a candidate has to get at least 10% of the vote to get any delegates to the Republican National Convention.[8]

Results

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New Hampshire Republican primary, February 9, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 100,735 35.23% 11 0 11
John Kasich 44,932 15.72% 4 0 4
Ted Cruz 33,244 11.63% 3 0 3
Jeb Bush 31,341 10.96% 3 0 3
Marco Rubio 30,071 10.52% 2 0 2
Chris Christie 21,089 7.38% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina 11,774 4.12% 0 0 0
Ben Carson 6,527 2.28% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 1,930 0.68% 0 0 0
Write-ins 2,912 1.02% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 216 0.08% 0 0 0
Andy Martin 202 0.07% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 160 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore 134 0.05% 0 0 0
Richard Witz 104 0.04% 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 79 0.03% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 73 0.03% 0 0 0
Brooks Andrews Cullison 56 0.02% 0 0 0
Timothy Cook 55 0.02% 0 0 0
Bobby Jindal (withdrawn) 53 0.02% 0 0 0
Frank Lynch 47 0.02% 0 0 0
Joe Robinson 44 0.02% 0 0 0
Stephen Bradley Comley 32 0.01% 0 0 0
Chomi Prag 16 0.01% 0 0 0
Jacob Daniel Dyas 15 0.01% 0 0 0
Stephen John McCarthy 12 0% 0 0 0
Walter Iwachiw 9 0% 0 0 0
Kevin Glenn Huey 8 0% 0 0 0
Matt Drozd 6 0% 0 0 0
Robert Lawrence Mann 5 0% 0 0 0
Peter Messina 5 0% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 285,916 100.00% 23 0 23
Source: The Green Papers

Note: Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 10% or more of the vote proportionally. Of the 25 candidate/hopefuls, five candidates garnered delegates.

Results by county

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County Trump Kasich Cruz
Belknap 35.16% 15.73% 12.89%
Carroll 33.95% 18.55% 11.05%
Cheshire 33.42% 16.05% 13.92%
Coos 36.99% 15.97% 10.18%
Grafton 29.36% 20.83% 10.35%
Hillsborough 34.89% 14.89% 11.43%
Merrimack 33.02% 18.61% 11.39%
Rockingham 38.73% 13.98% 10.78%
Strafford 33.40% 14.50% 15.09%
Sullivan 36.73% 15.91% 11.34%
TOTAL 35.23% 15.71% 11.63%
Source: uselectionatlas.org

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[9] Likely D November 6, 2016
CNN[10] Tossup November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[11] Lean D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[12] Lean D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[13] Lean D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Lean D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[15] Tossup November 8, 2016
Fox News[16] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § New Hampshire

Up until late October 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won almost every pre-election poll. On November 1, just one week before the election, Republican Donald Trump won a poll for the first time, 44% to 42%. In the final week, Trump won 4 polls to Clinton's 2 and one tie. The final poll showed a 45% to 44% lead for Clinton, which was accurate compared to the results.[17] The average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton up 45% to 42%.[18]

Results

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General election results, November 8, 2016 [19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 348,526 47.62%
Republican Donald Trump 345,790 47.25%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 30,694 4.13%
Green Jill Stein 6,465 0.87%
Democratic Bernie Sanders (write-in) 4,493 0.60%
Republican John Kasich (write-in) 1,365 0.18%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) 1,064 0.14%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente 677 0.09%
Republican Mitt Romney (write-in) 540 0.07%
Republican Paul Ryan (write-in) 280 0.04%
Republican Jeb Bush (write-in) 230 0.03%
Republican Marco Rubio (write-in) 136 0.02%
Republican Ted Cruz (write-in) 129 0.02%
Republican John McCain (write-in) 127 0.02%
Libertarian Ron Paul (write-in) 98 0.01%
Republican Ben Carson (write-in) 83 0.01%
Libertarian Vermin Supreme (write-in) 58 0.01%
Democratic Joe Biden (write-in) 55 0.01%
Republican Chris Christie (write-in) 23 0.00%
Total votes 743,117 100.00%

By county

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County Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Belknap 13,517 38.57% 19,315 55.11% 2,213 6.32% -5,798 -16.54% 35,045
Carroll 12,987 43.85% 14,635 49.42% 1,994 6.73% -1,648 -5.57% 29,616
Cheshire 22,064 52.66% 16,876 40.28% 2,955 7.06% 5,188 12.38% 41,895
Coos 6,563 42.00% 7,952 50.89% 1,112 7.11% -1,389 -8.89% 15,627
Grafton 28,510 55.69% 19,010 37.14% 3,671 7.17% 9,500 18.55% 51,191
Hillsborough 99,589 46.50% 100,013 46.70% 14,555 6.80% -424 -0.20% 214,157
Merrimack 40,198 48.06% 37,674 45.04% 5,776 6.90% 2,524 3.02% 83,648
Rockingham 79,994 44.09% 90,447 49.85% 10,993 6.06% -10,453 -5.76% 181,434
Strafford 34,894 50.57% 29,072 42.13% 5,034 7.30% 5,822 8.44% 69,000
Sullivan 10,210 45.01% 10,796 47.60% 1,677 7.39% -586 -2.59% 22,683
Totals 348,526 46.83% 345,790 46.46% 49,980 6.71% 2,736 0.37% 744,296
 
 
 
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Clinton and Trump each won a congressional district, with Trump winning one that elected a Democrat.[21]

District Clinton Trump Representative
1st 46.6% 48.19% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 48.62% 46.22% Ann McLane Kuster

Analysis

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Hillary Clinton's margin of victory was the smallest for a Democrat in the state since Woodrow Wilson narrowly won it in 1916. New Hampshire last voted for a Republican, George W. Bush, in 2000, and although Trump did not win New Hampshire, the top-line county results were exactly the same in 2000 and 2016. Despite Trump's narrow loss, this would be the first and only presidential election since 2000 where New Hampshire would vote more Republican than the national average, when the Republican candidate won more of the state's counties, along with the first time since 1976 when the winner of Coos County did not also carry the state as well. Coincidentally, New Hampshire voted as Republican in 2016 as it did Democratic in 2012 in comparison to the rest of the nation.

Allegations of voting irregularities

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On September 7, 2017, state House speaker Shawn Jasper announced that data showed that 6,540 people voted using out-of-state licenses. Of those, only 15% had received state licenses by August 2017. Of the remaining 5,526, only 3.3% had registered a motor vehicle in New Hampshire. In addition to the close vote for president, Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan defeated incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte by 1,017 votes. In February 2017, President Trump had told a gathering of senators at the White House that fraudulent out-of-state voting had cost him and Ayotte the election in New Hampshire. Mainstream media disputed Trump's and Jasper's assertion.[22] New Hampshire law permits New Hampshire residents to vote using out-of-state identification if they are domiciled in the state, out-of-state college students attending schools in New Hampshire being one example of such legitimate use of out-of-state identification.[23]

Several investigations by New Hampshire's Ballot Law Commission found no evidence of widespread fraud, and only 4 instances of fraud total in the state for the 2016 elections.[24] Specifically addressing the claim of people being bussed in from out of state to vote, Associate Attorney General Anne Edwards noted that they found no evidence for such claims. When they investigated these claims, they found that the buses were chartered out of state, but the voters on the buses lived in New Hampshire and could legally vote there.[25]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ The write-ins include 3,248 votes for these 11 Republican presidential candidates: Trump (1795), Kasich (438), Jeb Bush (263), Christie (216), Marco Rubio (203), Ted Cruz (162), Fiorina (99), Carson (52), Paul (12), Gilmore (6), Huckabee (2).[5]

References

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  1. ^ DiStaso, John. "More than 73 percent of NH's voting age population cast ballots, resulting in record turnout". wmur.com. Hearst Television inc. Retrieved April 17, 2022.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
  3. ^ Gregg, Hugh (1997). "First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary". New Hampshire Almanac. State of New Hampshire. Retrieved August 4, 2016.
  4. ^ "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
  5. ^ "2016 Presidential Primary - Democratic President: Summary Democratic Write-ins". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 14, 2020.
  6. ^ "2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: New Hampshire Democrat Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers. December 5, 2019. Archived from the original on February 18, 2018. Retrieved February 10, 2016.
  7. ^ "2016 Presidential Primary - Democratic President: Summary Democratic 16PP". New Hampshire Secretary of State. February 2016. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 14, 2020.
  8. ^ "New Hampshire Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
  9. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  10. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  11. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  13. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  14. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  15. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  16. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  17. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton".
  18. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton".
  19. ^ Federal Election Commission
  20. ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  21. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  22. ^ Weigel, David, "Election Integrity Commission members accuse New Hampshire voters of fraud", The Washington Post, 8 September 2017' Scarborough, Rowan, "More than 5,000 out-of-state voters may have tipped New Hampshire against Trump", Washington Times, September 7, 2017
  23. ^ UNH Votes, "[1]"
  24. ^ "After Exhaustive Investigations, NH Officials Find No Widespread Fraud in Recent Elections". New Hampshire Public Radio. May 29, 2018. Retrieved December 3, 2018.
  25. ^ "After Exhaustive Investigations, NH Officials Find No Widespread Fraud in Recent Elections". New Hampshire Public Radio. May 29, 2018. Retrieved December 3, 2018.
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