The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of New Hampshire, one from each of the state's two congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on September 13.
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All 2 New Hampshire seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Democratic gain Democratic hold | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Overview
editResults of the 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire by district:
| District | Democratic | Republican | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 162,080 | 44.29% | 157,176 | 42.95% | 46,728 | 12.77% | 365,984 | 100.0% | Democratic gain |
| District 2 | 174,495 | 49.74% | 158,973 | 45.32% | 17,324 | 4.94% | 350,792 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| Total | 336,575 | 46.96% | 316,149 | 44.11% | 64,052 | 8.94% | 716,776 | 100.0% | |
District 1
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The 1st district covers the southeastern part of the state and consists of three general areas: Greater Manchester, the Seacoast and the Lakes Region. Incumbent Republican Frank Guinta, who had represented the district since 2015 and previously from 2011 to 2013, ran for re-election. He was elected with 52% of the vote in 2014, defeating Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter, and the district had a PVI of R+1.
Republican primary
editIn May 2015, Guinta settled a case with the Federal Election Commission involving $355,000 that had been donated to him by his parents during his first House campaign in 2010. The settlement required him to return the donation and pay a $15,000 fine to the FEC.[1] New Hampshire politicians including Republican U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte called on Guinta to resign his House seat, but he refused.[2]
Candidates
editNominee
edit- Frank Guinta, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary
edit- Richard Ashooh, businessman
- Michael Callis
- Jamieson Gradert
- Robert Risley
Withdrawn
edit- Dan Innis, Dean of the Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics at the University of New Hampshire and 2014 candidate[3]
- Pamela Tucker, state representative[4][5]
Endorsements
editRichard Ashooh
Debate
edit| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Richard Ashooh | Frank Guinta | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 13, 2016 | New Hampshire Institute of Politics New Hampshire Union Leader WMUR-TV |
Josh McElveen | [8] | P | P |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Frank Guinta (incumbent) | 26,400 | 46.5 | |
| Republican | Richard Ashooh | 25,678 | 45.2 | |
| Republican | Michael Callis | 2,243 | 4.0 | |
| Republican | Robert Risley | 1,347 | 2.4 | |
| Republican | Jamieson Gradert | 1,031 | 1.8 | |
| Write-in | 111 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 56,810 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Carol Shea-Porter, former U.S. Representative who held the seat from 2007 to 2011, and again from 2013 to 2015[10]
Withdrawn
editDeclined
edit- Martha Fuller Clark, state senator and nominee for the seat in 2000 and 2002[13]
- Garth Corriveau, Manchester Alderman[11]
- Tom Ferrini, former mayor of Portsmouth[11]
- Travis Harker, physician and former president of the New Hampshire Medical Society[11]
- Andrew Hosmer, state senator[13]
- Terie Norelli, state representative and former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives[11]
- Chris Pappas, executive councilor[11][14]
- Stefany Shaheen, Portsmouth city councilor and daughter of U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen[11]
- Donna Soucy, state senator[11]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Carol Shea-Porter | 32,409 | 98.8 | |
| Write-in | 386 | 1.2 | ||
| Total votes | 32,795 | 100.0 | ||
General election
editEndorsements
editFrank Guinta (R)
Organizations
Carol Shea-Porter (D)
State legislators
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program[17]
- EMILY's List[18][19]
Debates
edit| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Frank Guinta | Carol Shea-Porter | Shawn O'Conner | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 24, 2016 | NH1-TV | Paul Steinhauser Keke Vencill |
[20] | P | P | P |
| 2 | Nov. 3, 2016 | New Hampshire Institute of Politics New Hampshire Union Leader WMUR-TV |
Josh McElveen | [21] | P | P | P |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Frank Guinta (R) |
Carol Shea-Porter (D) |
Robert Lombardo (L) |
Shawn O' Connor (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Amherst/YouGov[22] | October 17–21, 2016 | 380 | ± ?% | 37% | 41% | 9% | − | 3% | 10% |
| Normington Petts (D-House Majority PAC)[23] | September 18–21, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 34% | 44% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 10% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R-NRCC)[24] | September 14–18, 2016 | 427 | ± ?% | 41% | 38% | 4% | 8% | − | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire[25] | August 20–28, 2016 | 211 | ± 6.7% | 29% | 48% | − | − | 5% | 19% |
| University of New Hampshire[26] | July 9–18, 2016 | 215 | ± 6.7% | 37% | 43% | − | − | 7% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[29] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections[30] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg[31] | Tilt D (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP[33] | Lean D (flip) | October 31, 2016 |
Results
editShea-Porter narrowly flipped the seat Democratic. This, along with the narrow victory by Democrat Maggie Hassan in the concurrent Senate election, made it the first time since 1854 that New Hampshire's congressional delegation was fully represented by Democrats.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Carol Shea-Porter | 162,080 | 44.3 | |
| Republican | Frank Guinta (incumbent) | 157,176 | 42.9 | |
| Independent | Shawn O' Connor | 34,735 | 9.5 | |
| Independent | Brendan Kelly | 6,074 | 1.7 | |
| Libertarian | Robert Lombardo | 5,507 | 1.5 | |
| Write-in | 412 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 365,984 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | ||||
District 2
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The 2nd district covers the western and northern parts of the state and includes the cities of Nashua and Concord. Incumbent Democrat Ann McLane Kuster, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2014, and the district had a PVI of D+3.
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Ann McLane Kuster, incumbent U.S. Representative
Declined
edit- Jim Bouley, Mayor of Concord[11]
- Dan Feltes, state senator[11]
- Jason Lyon, activist and businessman[11]
- Steve Shurtleff, state representative[11]
- Colin Van Ostern, Executive Councilor[11] (ran for Governor)
- Mike Vlacich, campaign manager for U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen[11]
- Jeff Woodburn, state senator[11]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ann McLane Kuster (incumbent) | 36,683 | 99.3 | |
| Write-in | 249 | 0.7 | ||
| Total votes | 36,932 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Jim Lawrence, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 2014
Eliminated in primary
edit- Eric Estevez, state representative
- Jack Flanagan, New Hampshire House Majority Leader.[35]
- Walter Kelly, candidate for Senate in 2014
- Andy Martin, perennial candidate
- Jay Mercer
- Casey Newell
Declined
edit- Charles Bass, former U.S. Representative[11]
- Marilinda Garcia, former state representative, and nominee for this seat in 2014[11]
- Gary Lambert, former state senator and candidate for this seat in 2014
Endorsements
editJim Lawrence
Newspapers
Debate
edit| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Jack Flanagan | Jim Lawrence | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 8, 2016 | New Hampshire Union Leader Saint Anselm College WMUR |
Josh McElveen | [37] | P | P |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Lawrence | 17,180 | 39.7 | |
| Republican | Jack B. Flanagan | 12,046 | 27.8 | |
| Republican | Walter W. Kelly | 4,287 | 9.9 | |
| Republican | Andy Martin | 3,145 | 7.3 | |
| Republican | Eric Estevez | 2,443 | 5.6 | |
| Republican | Jay Mercer | 2,113 | 4.9 | |
| Republican | Casey Newell | 1,839 | 4.3 | |
| Write-in | 232 | 0.5 | ||
| Total votes | 43,285 | 100.0 | ||
General election
editEndorsements
editAnn McLane Kuster (D)
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Frontline" program[38]
- EMILY's List[19]
Debate
edit| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Annie McLane Kuster | Jim Lawrence | |||||
| 1 | Nov. 4, 2016 | New Hampshire Institute of Politics New Hampshire Union Leader WMUR-TV |
Josh McElveen | [39] | P | P |
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ann McLane Kuster (D) |
Jim Lawrence (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[25] | August 20–28, 2016 | 222 | ± 6.6% | 40% | 34% | 3% | 22% |
| University of New Hampshire[26] | July 9–18, 2016 | 254 | ± 6.1% | 38% | 32% | 4% | 26% |
Hypothetical polling
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ann McLane Kuster (incumbent) | 174,495 | 49.7 | |
| Republican | Jim Lawrence | 158,973 | 45.3 | |
| Independent | John Babiarz | 17,088 | 4.9 | |
| Write-in | 236 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 350,792 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ "Kelly Ayotte to Frank Guinta: Resignation is 'the right step'". Politico.com. Politico. May 18, 2015. Archived from the original on May 20, 2015. Retrieved May 19, 2015.
- ^ "New Hampshire Rep. Frank Guinta says he won't resign, despite calls from fellow Republicans". boston.com. The Boston Globe. Archived from the original on May 20, 2015. Retrieved May 19, 2015.
- ^ DiStaso, John (March 25, 2016). "Innis suspends congressional campaign, says family, business interests come first". WMUR. Retrieved March 25, 2016.
- ^ "NH INSIDER- Your Source for NH Politics - Press Releases - Pam Tucker Announces Run for NH-01". Archived from the original on March 9, 2016. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
- ^ Dan Tuohy (May 2, 2016). "Rep. Pam Tucker suspends 1st CD campaign". unionleader.com. New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on May 4, 2016. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
- ^ "BRADLEY ENDORSES GATSAS; JOHN E. SUNUNU SUPPORTS ASHOOH". The Conway Daily Sun. September 6, 2016.
- ^ "Ashooh for Congress: Raising the bar in District 1". New Hampshire Union Leader. August 31, 2016.
- ^ YouTube
- ^ a b c d "2016 Primary Election Official Results". New Hampshire Secretary of State. September 13, 2016. Archived from the original on September 19, 2016. Retrieved November 30, 2016.
- ^ DiStaso, John (September 20, 2015). "Shea-Porter announces she's running for US House again in 2016". WMUR.com. Manchester Hearst Properties Inc. Retrieved September 20, 2015.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q John DiStaso (November 14, 2014). "Analysis: NH Democrats already have deep bench for top races in 2016". New Hampshire Journal. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
- ^ DiStaso, John (February 10, 2015). "Democratic political newcomer O'Connor files candidacy for 1st District U.S. House seat". NH Journal. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
- ^ a b Alexis Levinson (December 30, 2014). "10 Races to Watch in 2016: New Hampshire's 1st District". Roll Call. Archived from the original on December 31, 2014. Retrieved December 30, 2014.
- ^ a b John DiStaso (September 22, 2014). "Executive Councilor Chris Pappas won't run for US House, backs Carol Shea-Porter". wmur.com. WMUR Manchester. Archived from the original on September 23, 2015. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
- ^ "Candidates". electgoppatriots.org/. National Republican Congressional Committee. Archived from the original on October 1, 2016. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
- ^ John DiStaso (July 28, 2016). "New Hampshire Primary Source: Hassan hits Ayotte (again) on for-profit university issue". wmur.com. WMUR Manchester. Archived from the original on July 29, 2016. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
- ^ "DCCC 2016 Red to Blue Races". actblue.com. DCCC. Archived from the original on October 8, 2020. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
- ^ "EMILY's List Endorses Carol Shea-Porter for Congress in New Hampshire's First Congressional District". emilyslist.org. EMILY’s List. January 27, 2014. Archived from the original on February 3, 2016. Retrieved July 13, 2023.
- ^ a b "U.S. HOUSE CANDIDATES". emilyslist.org/. Archived from the original on October 12, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
- ^ C-SPAN
- ^ YouTube
- ^ UMass Amherst/YouGov
- ^ Normington Petts (D-House Majority PAC)
- ^ North Star Opinion Research (R-NRCC)
- ^ a b University of New Hampshire
- ^ a b University of New Hampshire
- ^ a b WMUR/UNH
- ^ a b WMUR/UNH
- ^ "2016 House Race Ratings for November 7, 2016". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2016". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
- ^ "2016 House Ratings (November 3, 2016)". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "2016 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 7, 2016.
- ^ "Battle for the House 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 31, 2016.
- ^ a b "2016 General Election Information and Results". New Hampshire Secretary of State Elections Division. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 30, 2016.
- ^ Landrigan, Kevin (October 22, 2015). "Landrigan: Top NH House Republican explores bid for 2nd District Congressman". Archived from the original on October 24, 2015. Retrieved October 23, 2015.
- ^ "Lawrence for Congress: Best choice to challenge Kuster". New Hampshire Union Leader. August 31, 2016. Archived from the original on September 1, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2016.
- ^ YouTube
- ^ Ben Ray Lujan (February 12, 2015). "FRONTLINE DEMOCRATS 2015-2016". dccc.org/. DCCC. Archived from the original on October 24, 2016. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
- ^ YouTube