Wikipedia

2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections. For the other Senate election in Oklahoma held in parallel, see 2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma.
Not to be confused with 2022 Oklahoma Senate election.

The 2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate for Oklahoma. The election took place concurrently with the regularly scheduled election for Oklahoma's other Senate seat.[1] The candidate filing deadline was between April 13 and 15, 2022.[2]

2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
← 2020 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2026 →
 
Nominee Markwayne Mullin Kendra Horn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 710,643 405,389
Percentage 61.77% 35.24%
Mullin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Horn:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Jim Inhofe
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Markwayne Mullin
Republican

This special election was held to fill the remaining four years of incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe's term. In February 2022, Inhofe announced that he would resign early at the end of the 117th United States Congress on January 3, 2023.[3] He was first elected in a 1994 special election with 55% of the vote to succeed Democratic senator David Boren in the wake of his impending resignation to become president of the University of Oklahoma.[4] Most recently, Inhofe was re-elected to a fifth full term in 2020 with 62.9% of the vote.[5]

Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn secured the Democratic nomination by default, while the primary election for the Republican nomination took place on June 28, 2022. U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin won the Republican primary runoff on August 23, defeating former State House Speaker T. W. Shannon.[2] Mullin ultimately won the election.[6]

Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, became the first Native American to serve in the U.S. Senate since fellow Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired from Congress in 2005, and the first Native American representing this state since Robert Owen in 1925.[7] Conversely, Horn won Oklahoma County, making her the first Democrat since 2008 to carry any Oklahoma county in a Senate election.

Republican primary

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On February 25, 2022, Jim Inhofe, the state's longest-serving U.S. Senator, announced he would leave office at the end of the 117th Congress, triggering a special election for his U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma.[8] A crowded field of candidates was expected in the Republican primary following the announcement of Inhofe's retirement.[9]

Luke Holland, Inhofe's former chief of staff, launched his campaign for Inhofe's seat on the same day with Inhofe's endorsement.[8] The next day, Markwayne Mullin, a U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, announced his campaign.[10] By February 28, Oklahoma State Senator Nathan Dahm had announced he was switching his campaign from running for Oklahoma's Class III seat to running for the special election seat.[11] On March 8, former United States National Security Council chief of staff Alex Gray announced his campaign.[12] T. W. Shannon, a former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, officially announced his campaign on March 11.[13] Scott Pruitt, former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, filed to run on April 15.[14]

Candidates

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Former state house speaker T. W. Shannon lost the runoff.

Nominee

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State senator Nathan Dahm finished third in the initial primary.

Eliminated in runoff

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Eliminated in initial primary

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Withdrew before primary

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Declined

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First round

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Endorsements

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Nathan Dahm
U.S. Senators
Newspapers
Organizations
Alex Gray (withdrew)
Federal executive officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. representative
County officials
Randy Grellner
Federal Executive officials
Individuals
Organizations
  • Phyllis Schlafly Eagles[42]
Luke Holland
U.S. Senators
Individuals
Political action committees
Markwayne Mullin
Individuals
Newspapers
  • Southwest Ledger[47]
T. W. Shannon
Federal executive officials
State executive officials
State representatives
Tribal officials
U.S. military generals
Individuals
Organizations
  • Association of Oklahoma General Contractors[51]
Scott Pruitt
Federal executive officials

Debates

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2022 Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Nathan
Dahm 		Luke
Holland 		Markwayne
Mullin 		Scott
Pruitt 		T.W.
Shannon
1 June 9, 2022 News on 6 Amanda Taylor Link P P A P P
2 June 22, 2022 News on 6 Alex Cameron Link P P A P P

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Nathan
Dahm 		Jessica
Garrison 		Alex
Gray 		Randy
Grellner 		Luke
Holland 		Adam
Holley 		Markwayne
Mullin 		Scott
Pruitt 		T.W.
Shannon 		Other Undecided
SoonerPoll June 13–21, 2022 350 (LV) ± 5.2% 8% – 2% 1% 5% – 39% 2% 13% – 30%
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 5% 3% 0% 1% 4% 0% 38% 6% 19% 0%[b] 22%
SoonerPoll April 25 – May 11, 2022 306 (LV) ± 5.6% 6% 0% 0% 1% 3% 1% 38% 3% 16% 0%[b] 31%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 6% – 1% – 2% – 39% – 14% – 38%

Results

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Initial primary results by county:
  Mullin
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Shannon
  •   30–40%
  Grellner
  •   20–30%
Republican primary results[53][54]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Markwayne Mullin 156,087 43.62%
Republican T. W. Shannon 62,746 17.53%
Republican Nathan Dahm 42,673 11.92%
Republican Luke Holland 40,353 11.28%
Republican Scott Pruitt 18,052 5.04%
Republican Randy Grellner 15,794 4.41%
Republican Laura Moreno 6,597 1.84%
Republican Jessica Jean Garrison 6,114 1.71%
Republican Alex Gray (withdrew) 3,063 0.86%
Republican John F. Tompkins 2,332 0.65%
Republican Adam Holley 1,873 0.52%
Republican Michael Coibion 1,261 0.35%
Republican Paul Royse 900 0.25%
Total votes 357,845 100.0%

Runoff

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Endorsements

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Markwayne Mullin
Executive branch officials
Statewide elected officials
Individuals
Newspapers
  • Southwest Ledger[47]
T. W. Shannon
Federal executive officials
State executive officials
State representatives
Tribal officials
U.S. military generals
Individuals
Organizations
  • Association of Oklahoma General Contractors[51]

Debates

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2022 Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Markwayne
Mullin 		T.W.
Shannon
1 August 2, 2022 News on 6 Link P P

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Markwayne
Mullin 		T.W.
Shannon 		Undecided
SoonerPoll August 11–17, 2022 322 (LV) ± 5.4% 53% 47% 0%
Amber Integrated (R) August 11–15, 2022 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 31% 20%
Battleground Connect (R) July 31 – August 1, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 38% 16%
SoonerPoll July 25 – August 1, 2022 383 (LV) ± 5.0% 63% 35% 1%

Results

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Primary runoff results by county:
  Mullin
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Shannon
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[57]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Markwayne Mullin 183,118 65.08%
Republican T. W. Shannon 98,246 34.92%
Total votes 281,364 100.0%

Democratic nomination

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Former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn was the only Democrat to file to run and was automatically awarded the Democratic nomination.[58]

General election

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Candidates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Solid R February 24, 2022
Inside Elections[62] Solid R February 24, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Safe R March 1, 2022
Politico[64] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[65] Safe R February 24, 2022
Fox News[66] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[67] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[68] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[69] Safe R September 7, 2022

Endorsements

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Markwayne Mullin (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Statewide officials
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Newspapers
  • Southwest Ledger[47]
Organizations
Kendra Horn (D)
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Markwayne
Mullin (R) 		Kendra
Horn (D) 		Other
[c] 		Margin
270towin October 11 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 53.0% 39.8% 7.2% Mullin +13.2
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Markwayne
Mullin (R) 		Kendra
Horn (D) 		Other Undecided
Ascend Action (R) November 5–6, 2022 682 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41% 3%[d] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) October 26–28, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 41% 4%[e] 2%
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 56% 35% 4%[f] 5%
59% 36% 5%[g] –
Ascend Action (R) October 24–28, 2022 749 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 41% 4%[h] 8%
Amber Integrated (R) October 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 39% 5%[i] 3%
Ascend Action (R) October 10–12, 2022 638 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 39% 1%[j] 10%
SoonerPoll October 3–6, 2022 301 (LV) – 51% 42% 3%[k] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) September 19–21, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 39% – 11%
–(L)[A] September 15–18, 2022 2,989 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 37% 5%[l] 9%
SoonerPoll September 2–7, 2022 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 40% 4%[m] 4%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (RV) ± 6.3% 58% 28% – 13%

Results

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2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma[86][87]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Markwayne Mullin 710,643 61.77% −1.14%
Democratic Kendra Horn 405,389 35.24% +2.49%
Libertarian Robert Murphy 17,386 1.51% −0.70%
Independent Ray Woods 17,063 1.48% N/A
Total votes 1,150,481 100.0%
Turnout 1,150,481 50.11%
Registered electors 2,295,906
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Mullin won all 5 congressional districts.[88]

District Mullin Horn Representative
1st 56.5% 40.5% Kevin Hern
2nd 72.5% 24.6% Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress)
Josh Brecheen (118th Congress)
3rd 67.3% 29.6% Frank Lucas
4th 60.3% 36.5% Tom Cole
5th 53.7% 43.4% Stephanie Bice

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ This poll was conducted in-house by and for Natalie Bruno's campaign for Governor
  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b Coibion, Moreno, Royse, and Tompkins with 0%
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ Woods (I) with 2%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  5. ^ Murphy (L) with 2%; Woods (I) with 2%
  6. ^ Woods (I) with 3%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  7. ^ Woods (I) with 4%; Murphy (L) with 1%
  8. ^ Murphy (L) with 2%; Woods (I) with 2%
  9. ^ Murphy (L) with 3%; Woods (I) with 2%
  10. ^ Woods (I) with 1%; Murphy (L) with <1%
  11. ^ Woods with 3%
  12. ^ Murphy with 4%; Woods with 1%
  13. ^ Woods with 4%

References

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  1. ^ Beavers, Olivia; Everett, Burgess (February 24, 2022). "Inhofe to retire from Senate, teeing up special election in Oklahoma". Politico. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
  2. ^ a b "2022 Statutory Election Dates and Deadlines" (PDF). oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 25, 2022. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  3. ^ a b Martin, Jonathan (February 24, 2022). "James Inhofe, Oklahoma Senator, Is Said to Plan an Early Retirement". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
  4. ^ "Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 4, 2014". Oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original on April 8, 2021. Retrieved March 25, 2021.
  5. ^ "Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 3, 2020". Oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved February 24, 2022.[permanent dead link‍]
  6. ^ KOCO Staff (November 9, 2022). "Oklahoma Election Results: Markwayne Mullin wins race for US Senate, claiming Inhofe's open seat". KOCO. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  7. ^ "Markwayne Mullin wins US Senate seat". ICT. Associated Press. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  8. ^ a b c Eger, Andrea (February 25, 2022). "U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe announces retirement after 35 years in Congress representing Oklahoma". Tulsa World. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
  9. ^ Gorman, Reese (February 25, 2022). "Contenders for Oklahoma's open Senate seat face a crowded race". The Frontier. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
  10. ^ a b Morris, Callie (February 26, 2022). "Rep. Markwayne Mullin announces run for Senate". KTUL News. Retrieved February 26, 2022.
  11. ^ a b c Canfield, Kevin (February 28, 2022). "Mayor Bynum won't run for Senate; Nathan Dahm shifts campaign to Inhofe's seat". Tulsa World. Retrieved February 28, 2022.
  12. ^ a b Vakil, Caroline (March 8, 2022). "Former Trump national security official jumps into Senate race in Oklahoma". The Hill. Retrieved March 8, 2022.
  13. ^ a b c "After eight years, Shannon ready for one more race". Tulsa World. March 10, 2022. Retrieved March 10, 2022.
  14. ^ a b "Ex-EPA head Scott Pruitt to run for US Senate in Oklahoma". Seattle Times. April 15, 2022. Retrieved April 15, 2022.
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  25. ^ "OKLAHOMA". Politics1. Retrieved March 4, 2022.
  26. ^ Kapos, Shia (February 25, 2022). "Mary Miller reveals the GOP divide on Ukraine". Politico Illinois Playbook. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
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  28. ^ a b Casteel, Chris (February 25, 2022). "Sen. Jim Inhofe to resign from Senate, backs top aide Luke Holland to succeed him". The Oklahoman. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
  29. ^ Savage, Tres (February 24, 2022). "Why U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe may announce retirement before March 1". NonDoc. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
  30. ^ Faught, Jamison (February 26, 2022). "Former State Rep. Paul Wesselhöft exploring U.S. Senate campaign". Muskogee Politico. Retrieved March 8, 2022.
  31. ^ Aabram, Virginia (March 3, 2022). "Rand Paul endorses anti-Fauci ally for Oklahoma Senate seat". Washington Examiner. Retrieved March 3, 2022.
  32. ^ "Editorial: Tulsa Beacon endorsements". Tulsa Beacon. June 16, 2022. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
  33. ^ Faught, Jamison (May 4, 2022). "Eagle Forum PAC endorses Dahm for Senate". Muskogee Politico. Retrieved May 4, 2022.
  34. ^ Casteel, Chris (February 12, 2022). "James Lankford buys ad time as opponent fumes about conservative group's endorsement". The Oklahoman. Retrieved February 12, 2022.
  35. ^ "OK2A Endorsements for Mid-Term Elections-June 2022". Oklahoma 2nd Amendment Association. May 31, 2022. Retrieved June 5, 2022.
  36. ^ "2022 OKHPR-PAC Primary Race Endorsements". OKHPR. June 4, 2022. Retrieved June 5, 2022.
  37. ^ a b c d e f Faught, Jamison (April 4, 2022). "Former Acting AG under Trump endorses Gray for Senate". Muskogee Politico. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
  38. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (March 20, 2022). "Political notebook: Oklahoma Democrats have their Horns out in U.S. Senate races". Tulsa World. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
  39. ^ a b Gorman, Reese (March 14, 2022). "On The Trail #2". The Frontier. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
  40. ^ Phippen, Thomas (April 23, 2022). "Oklahoma Senate special election: Rep. Markwayne Mullin meets with Trump as crowded race heats up". Fox News. Retrieved April 30, 2022.
  41. ^ Faught, Jamison (May 24, 2022). "Senate candidate Dr. Randy Grellner puts $786k into ads". Muskogee Politico. Retrieved May 24, 2022.
  42. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (May 22, 2022). "Political notebook: Abortion bill aftershocks reverberate". Tulsa World. Retrieved May 22, 2022.
  43. ^ McGuinan, Patrick (May 13, 2022). "Dr. Randy Grellner launches U.S. Senate campaign from Cushing and garners endorsement from Trump NSA Director, General Michael Flynn, among others". The Oklahoma City Sentinel. Retrieved May 25, 2022.
  44. ^ Gorman, Reese (April 11, 2022). "On The Trail #5". The Frontier. Retrieved April 11, 2022.
  45. ^ a b c Krehbiel, Randy (May 8, 2022). "Political notebook: Oklahoma House of Representatives looks at the big picture". Tulsa World. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
  46. ^ a b "Mullin Announces Finance Team" (PDF). Mullin for America. Fox News. Retrieved April 30, 2022.
  47. ^ a b c "OUR VIEW: Mullin the best choice to succeed Inhofe". Southwest Ledger. June 18, 2022. Retrieved June 23, 2022.
  48. ^ a b c d McCarville, Mike (March 23, 2022). "Shannon Wins Support of Transportation Leaders". The McCarville Report. Retrieved March 24, 2022.
  49. ^ a b c d e f g h i j McCarville, Mike (March 21, 2022). "Shannon Forms Military Advisory Council". The McCarville Report. Retrieved March 24, 2022.
  50. ^ a b "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 4/14/22". audacy.com. Retrieved April 19, 2022.
  51. ^ a b "Association of Oklahoma General Contractors (AOGC) endorses T.W. Shannon for U.S. Senate". The Oklahoma City Sentinel. June 4, 2022. Retrieved July 22, 2022.
  52. ^ Cama, Timothy (June 9, 2022). "Rick Perry backs Scott Pruitt in Senate bid". E&E News. Washington, D.C. Retrieved June 12, 2022.
  53. ^ "June 28 2022". okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved June 29, 2022.
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  56. ^ a b "Gov. Kevin Stitt endorses Markwayne Mullin for US Senate". Fox 23. August 18, 2022. Retrieved August 18, 2022.
  57. ^ "OK Election Results - August 23, 2022". Oklahoma State Election Board.
  58. ^ Casteel, Chris. "Oklahoma Senate, congressional races draw crowds as candidate filing ends". The Oklahoman. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  59. ^ Murphy, Sean (August 23, 2022). "Rep. Markwayne Mullin wins U.S. Senate GOP runoff in deep-red Oklahoma". PBS NewsHour. Associated Press. Retrieved August 26, 2022.
  60. ^ "Crowded Fields: 2 US Senate seats are up for grabs". Tulsa Beacon. April 28, 2022. Retrieved June 6, 2022. Murphy is a retired data tech from OU. . . He is a veteran from the U.S. Marines who worked as a carpenter from 1978-1983.
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  62. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 24, 2021.
  63. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 24, 2022.
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  66. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  67. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  68. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  69. ^ "The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast". The Economist. September 18, 2022. Retrieved September 18, 2022.
  70. ^ "Mullin-Horn Senate race leads third-quarter fundraising". October 19, 2022. Archived from the original on October 20, 2022.
  71. ^ "AGC PAC: The Associated General Contractors Of America Political Action Committee Endorses Representative Mullin For The U.S. Senate And State Representative Frix For The U.S. House". www.agc.org. August 18, 2022. Archived from the original on August 22, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
  72. ^ a b "Markwayne Mullin's Ratings and Endorsements - Vote Smart". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  73. ^ "CCAGW PAC Endorses Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford and Rep. Markwayne Mullin for Senate and Two House Candidates". www.businesswire.com. October 19, 2022. Archived from the original on October 19, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
  74. ^ "National Right to Life Endorses Markwayne Mullin in Oklahoma Senate Special Election". National Right to Life. September 22, 2022. Archived from the original on September 22, 2022. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  75. ^ "OKFB AG PAC ISSUES ADDITIONAL ENDORSEMENTS, FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR CANDIDATES IN UPCOMING ELECTIONS". www.okfarmbureau.com. July 20, 2022. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  76. ^ "Oklahoma Fraternal Order of Police Endorses Markwayne Mullin for U.S. Senate". mullinforamerica.com. June 24, 2022. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  77. ^ "IN THE NEWS - Tea Party Express". teapartyexpress.org. June 22, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
  78. ^ "Prominent Republican Endorses Democrat Against Trump Candidate in Oklahoma". Newsweek. September 29, 2022. Retrieved October 5, 2022.
  79. ^ "Candidates". Brady PAC. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  80. ^ "Kendra Horn EDW Press Release - Edmond Democratic Women" (PDF). edmonddemocraticwomen.org. August 19, 2022. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  81. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces Slate of New Endorsements for Congress". July 5, 2022. Retrieved July 9, 2022.
  82. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
  83. ^ "Our Candidates: Political Endorsements - Sally's List". sallyslist.org. Retrieved October 10, 2022.
  84. ^ "Endorsement: Kendra Horn the right choice to succeed Jim Inhofe in the U.S. Senate". October 20, 2022.
  85. ^ a b World, Randy Krehbiel Tulsa (October 19, 2022). "Mullin-Horn Senate race leads third-quarter fundraising". Tulsa World. Retrieved October 20, 2022.
  86. ^ "November 08 2022 Oklahoma Official Results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  87. ^ "Current Registration Statistics by County" (PDF). oklahoma.gov. November 1, 2022. Retrieved December 9, 2022.
  88. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
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Official campaign websites
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