2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bauchi State

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bauchi State
Registered	2,749,268
Turnout	32.73%
President before election; Muhammadu Buhari; APC	Elected President ; Bola Tinubu; APC

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bauchi State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.^[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Background

Bauchi State is a large, diverse northeastern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, desertification, and a rising sexual violence epidemic. Politically, the state's 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. In federal elections, Buhari held the state for the APC albeit with a reduced margin of victory while the APC swept all senate seats by winning back two seats it lost due to defections. Both major parties lost seats in House of Representatives elections to the benefit of the minor People's Redemption Party. On the state level, Mohammed unseated APC incumbent Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar by a narrow margin as the APC held the House of Assembly.

Polling

Polling organisation/client	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Others	Undecided	Undisclosed	Not voting
			Tinubu APC	Obi LP	Kwankwaso NNPP	Abubakar PDP

BantuPage	January 2023	N/A	34%	1%	9%	45%	–	9%	2%	0%
Nextier (Bauchi crosstabs of national poll)	27 January 2023	N/A	30.0%	1.0%	4.0%	60.0%	–	5.0%	–	–
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Bauchi crosstabs of national poll)	22 January-6 February 2023	N/A	27%	18%	10%	18%	1%	5%	–	–

Projections

Source	Projection		As of
Africa Elects^[a]^[2]	Likely Abubakar		24 February 2023
Dataphyte^[b]^[3]
	Tinubu:	19.80%	11 February 2023
	Obi:	8.07%
	Abubakar:	65.12%
	Others:	7.00%
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence^[c]^[4]	Abubakar		17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence^[d]^[5]	Abubakar		15 December 2022
ThisDay^[e]^[6]
	Tinubu:	20%	27 December 2022
	Obi:	5%
	Kwankwaso:	15%
	Abubakar:	40%
	Others/Undecided:	20%
The Nation^[f]^[7]^[8]	Battleground		12-19 February 2023

General election

Results


Candidate		Running mate	Party	Votes	%
	Atiku Abubakar	Ifeanyi Okowa	PDP	426,607	49.98
	Bola Tinubu	Kashim Shettima	APC	316,694	37.10
	Rabiu Kwankwaso	Isaac Idahosa	NNPP	72,103	8.45
	Peter Obi	Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed	LP	27,373	3.21
	Others candidates	–	Others	10,739	1.26
Total				853,516	100.00

Valid votes				853,516	96.71
Invalid/blank votes				29,030	3.29
Total votes				899,769	–
Registered voters/turnout				2,749,268	32.73
Source: ^[9]

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial district	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Bauchi Central Senatorial District^[g]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Bauchi North Senatorial District^[h]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Bauchi South Senatorial District^[i]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal constituency	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Alkaleri/Kirfi Federal Constituency^[j]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Bauchi Federal Constituency^[k]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Darazo/Ganjuwa Federal Constituency^[l]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Dass/Bogoro/Tafawa Balewa Federal Constituency^[m]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Gamawa Federal Constituency^[n]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Jama’are/Itas-Gadau Federal Constituency^[o]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Katagum Federal Constituency^[p]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Misau/Dambam Federal Constituency^[q]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Ningi/Warji Federal Constituency^[r]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Shira/Giade Federal Constituency^[s]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Toro Federal Constituency^[t]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Zaki Federal Constituency^[u]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government area	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes	Turnout (%)
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Alkaleri	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Bauchi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Bogoro	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Damban	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Darazo	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Dass	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Gamawa	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ganjuwa	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Giade	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Itas/Gadau	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Jamaare	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Katagum	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Kirfi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Misau	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Ningi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Shira	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Tafawa Balewa	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Tipchi	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Toro	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Warji	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Zaki	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%

Notes

^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
^ Comprising the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Gamawa, Giade, Itas/Gadau, Jamaare, Katagum, Shira, and Zaki.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Alkaleri and Kirfi.
^ Comprising the local government area of Bauchi.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Darazo and Ganjuwa.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Dass, Bogoro, and Tafawa Balewa.
^ Comprising the local government area of Gamawa.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Jamaare and Itas/Gadau.
^ Comprising the local government area of Katagum.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Misau and Dambam.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Ningi and Warji.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Shira and Giade.
^ Comprising the local government area of Toro.
^ Comprising the local government area of Zaki.

References

^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ Bakam, Armstrong (27 February 2023). "NigeriaElections2023: Atiku wins Bauchi with 109,913 votes". Punch Nigeria. Retrieved 27 February 2023.

[2] Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".

[4] Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.

[6] EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.

[8] SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).

[10] ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.

[12] SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."

[16] Comprising the local government areas of Damban, Darazo, Ganjuwa, Misau, Ningi, and Warji.

[17] Comprising the local government areas of Gamawa, Giade, Itas/Gadau, Jamaare, Katagum, Shira, and Zaki.

[18] Comprising the local government areas of Alkaleri, Bauchi, Bogoro, Dass, Kirfi, Tafawa Balewa, and Toro.

[19] Comprising the local government areas of Alkaleri and Kirfi.

[20] Comprising the local government area of Bauchi.

[21] Comprising the local government areas of Darazo and Ganjuwa.

[22] Comprising the local government areas of Dass, Bogoro, and Tafawa Balewa.

[23] Comprising the local government area of Gamawa.

[24] Comprising the local government areas of Jamaare and Itas/Gadau.

[25] Comprising the local government area of Katagum.

[26] Comprising the local government areas of Misau and Dambam.

[27] Comprising the local government areas of Ningi and Warji.

[28] Comprising the local government areas of Shira and Giade.

[29] Comprising the local government area of Toro.

[30] Comprising the local government area of Zaki.

[New_Dates-1] Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.

[Africa_Elects_state_ratings-3] Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.

[Dataphyte_February_projections-5] "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.

[EiE-SBM_February_projections-7] "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[9] "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.

[ThisDay_December_projections-11] "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.

[TN_February_projections-13] Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[14] Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[15] Bakam, Armstrong (27 February 2023). "NigeriaElections2023: Atiku wins Bauchi with 109,913 votes". Punch Nigeria. Retrieved 27 February 2023.

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