The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Benue State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editBenue State is a diverse, agriculture-based state in the Middle Belt; although it is nicknamed the "Food Basket of the Nation" and has vast natural resources, Benue has faced challenges in security as inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers heavily affect the state. The overproliferation of weaponry and increased pressure for land along with failures in governance led to the worsening of these clashes in the years ahead of the election.[2]
Politically, Benue's 2019 elections were categorized as a swing back towards the PDP in the aftermath of Ortom's 2018 defection back to the party. On the federal level, PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state after Buhari had won it in 2015; legislatively, the PDP swept all three Senate seats and won seven House of Representatives seats. Statewise, PDP Governor Samuel Ortom won re-election by over 10% of the vote and the PDP won a majority in the House of Assembly.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 12% | 49% | 1% | 6% | – | 9% | 20% | 2% |
| Nextier (Benue crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 30.3% | 46.1% | – | 20.2% | – | 3.4% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Benue crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 4% | 49% | – | 2% | 1% | 43% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][3] | Likely Obi | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][4] | |||
| Tinubu: | 24.44% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 33.57% | ||
| Abubakar: | 24.44% | ||
| Others: | 17.54% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][5] |
Obi | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][6] | Obi | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][7] | |||
| Tinubu: | 20% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 30% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 10% | ||
| Abubakar: | 25% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 15% | ||
| The Nation[f][8][9] | Battleground | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial district | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Benue North-East Senatorial District[g] (Zone A) |
TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Benue North-West Senatorial District[h] (Zone B) |
TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Benue South Senatorial District[i] (Zone C) |
TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Ado/Ogbadibo/Okpokwu Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Apa/Agatu Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Buruku Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Gboko/Tarka Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Guma/Makurdi Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Gwer East/Gwer West Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Katsina-Ala/Ukum/Logo Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Konshisha/Vandeikya Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kwande/Ushongo Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Oju/Obi Federal Constituency[s] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Otukpo/Ohimini Federal Constituency[t] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Ado | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Agatu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Apa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Buruku | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gboko | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Guma | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gwer East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gwer West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Katsina-Ala | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Konshisha | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kwande | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Logo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Makurdi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Obi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ogbadibo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ohimini | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oju | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Okpokwu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Otukpo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Tarka | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ukum | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ushongo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Vandeikya | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Katsina-Ala, Konshisha, Kwande, Logo, Vandeikya, Ukum, and Ushongo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Buruku, Gboko, Gwer East, Gwer West, Guma, Makurdi, and Tarka.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ado, Agatu, Apa, Obi, Ogbadibo, Ohimini, Oju, Okpokwu, and Otukpo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ado, Ogbadibo, and Okpokwu.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Apa and Agatu.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Buruku.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gboko and Tarka.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Guma and Makurdi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gwer East and Gwer West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Katsina-Ala, Logo. and Ukum.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Konshisha and Vandeikya.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kwande and Ushongo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Obi and Oju.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ohimini and Otukpo.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Ojewale, Oluwole. "What's driving violence in Nigeria's north central region". The Conversation. Retrieved 15 March 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.