The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kaduna State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editKaduna State is a large, diverse northwestern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, inter-ethnic violence, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state.[2][3][4][5][6]
Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a slight solidification of the Kaduna APC's control as Governor Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai won re-election with over 55% of the vote and the party retained its House of Assembly majority. Federally, the APC regained two of the three Senate seats it lost due to defections and won eleven of the sixteen House of Representatives seats. For the presidency, Kaduna was won by APC nominee Muhammadu Buhari with about 60% but swung slightly towards the PDP. The 2019 elections also showed the political divide between the diverse, Christian-majority Southern region and the mainly Hausa and Fulani, Muslim-majority Northern and Central regions as the former region moved towards the PDP while the latter two regions stuck with the APC.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 17% | 14% | 8% | 24% | – | 33% | 7% | 7% |
| Nextier (Kaduna crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 42.7% | 22.6% | 4.8% | 29.0% | 0.8% | – | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Kaduna crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 11% | 31% | 12% | 29% | – | 17% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][7] | Tossup | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][8] | |||
| Tinubu: | 34.71% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 16.56% | ||
| Abubakar: | 34.71% | ||
| Others: | 14.02% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][9] |
Abubakar | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][10] | Abubakar | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][11] | |||
| Tinubu: | 30% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 20% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 20% | ||
| Abubakar: | 25% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 5% | ||
| The Nation[f][12][13] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Kaduna Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kaduna North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kaduna South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Birnin Gwari/Giwa Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Igabi Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ikara/Kubau Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Jema'a/Sanga Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kachia/Kagarko Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kaduna North Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kaduna South Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kaura Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kauru Federal Constituency[s] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Lere Federal Constituency[t] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Makarfi/Kudan Federal Constituency[u] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Sabon Gari Federal Constituency[v] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Soba Federal Constituency[w] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Zangon Kataf/Jaba Federal Constituency[x] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Zaria Federal Constituency[y] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Birnin Gwari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Chikun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Giwa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Igabi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Jaba | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Jema'a | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kachia | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kaduna North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kaduna South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kagarko | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kajuru | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kaura | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kauru | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kubau | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kudan | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Lere | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Makarfi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sabon Gari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sanga | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Soba | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Zangon Kataf | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Zaria | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Gwari, Chikun, Giwa, Igabi, Kaduna North, Kaduna South, and Kajuru.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikara, Kubau, Kudan, Lere, Makarfi, Sabon Gari, Soba, and Zaria.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jaba, Jema'a, Kachia, Kagarko, Kaura, Kauru, Sanga, and Zangon Kataf.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Gwari and Giwa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Chikun and Kajuru.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Igabi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikara and Kubau.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jema'a and Sanga.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kachia and Kagarko.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Kaduna North.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Kaduna South.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Kaura.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Kauru.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Lere.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kudan and Makarfi.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Sabon Gari.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Soba.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jaba and Zangon Kataf.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Zaria.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Arvin, Jariel (2 August 2021). "How kidnap-for-ransom became the "most lucrative industry in Nigeria"". Vox. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
- ^ Shiklam, John. "In Three Months, Bandits Killed 343 People, Abducted 830 Others in Kaduna". ThisDay. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
- ^ Egbejule, Eromo. "Who are the 'bandits' terrorising Nigeria's 'Wild Wild West'?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
- ^ Campbell, John. "Ethnic and Religious Violence Worsen in Kaduna". Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
- ^ Mahr, Krista (21 February 2019). "Guns, religion and climate change intensify Nigeria's deadly farmer-herder clashes". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.