The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Katsina State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editKatsina State is a highly populated, northwestern state mainly inhabited by ethnic Hausas and Fulanis. It has a growing economy but is facing rising insecurity, desertification, and low education rates. Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed the state's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Aminu Bello Masari won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly levels were carried by APC nominees.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 14% | 4% | 8% | 24% | – | 39% | 3% | 7% |
| Nextier (Katsina crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 17.5% | 29.4% | 8.7% | 39.7% | 0.8% | 4.0% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Katsina crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 3% | 56% | 2% | 36% | – | 2% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][2] | Lean Tinubu | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][3] | |||
| Tinubu: | 46.27% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 4.10% | ||
| Abubakar: | 46.27% | ||
| Others: | 3.36% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][4] |
Abubakar | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][5] | Tinubu | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][6] | |||
| Tinubu: | 30% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | – | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 30% | ||
| Abubakar: | 35% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 5% | ||
| The Nation[f][7][8] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Katsina Central Senatorial District[g] (Katsina Zone) |
TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Katsina North Senatorial District[h] (Daura Zone) |
TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Katsina South Senatorial District[i] (Funtua Zone) |
TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Bakori/Danja Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Batagarawa/Charanchi/Rimi Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Batsari/Safana/Danmusa Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Bindawa/Mani Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Daura/Sandamu/Mai'Adua Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Dutsin-Ma/Kurfi Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Faskari/Kankara/Sabuwa Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Funtua/Dandume Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Jibia/Kaita Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Katsina Federal Constituency[s] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ingawa/Kankia/Kusada Federal Constituency[t] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Malumfashi/Kafur Federal Constituency[u] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Mashi/Dutsi Federal Constituency[v] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Matazu/Musawa Federal Constituency[w] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Zango/Baure Federal Constituency[x] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Bakori | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Batagarawa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Batsari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Baure | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bindawa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Charanchi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Dan Musa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Dandume | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Danja | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Daura | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Dutsi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Dutsin-Ma | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Faskari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Funtua | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ingawa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Jibia | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kafur | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kaita | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kankara | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kankia | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Katsina | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kurfi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kusada | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mai'Adua | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Malumfashi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mani | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mashi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Matazu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Musawa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Rimi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sabuwa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Safana | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sandamu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Tsagem | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Zango | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Batagarawa, Batsari, Charanchi, Dan Musa, Dutsin-Ma, Jibia, Kaita, Katsina, Kurfi, Rimi, and Safana.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Baure, Bindawa, Daura, Dutsi, Ingawa, Kankia, Kusada, Mai'Adua, Mani, Mashi, Sandamu, and Zango.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bakori, Dandume, Danja, Faskari, Funtua, Kafur, Kankara, Malumfashi, Matazu, Musawa, and Sabuwa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bakori and Danja.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Batagarawa, Charanchi, and Rimi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Batsari, Dan Musa, and Safana.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bindawa and Mani.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Daura, Mai'Adua, and Sandamu.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Dutsin-Ma and Kurfi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Faskari, Kankara, and Sabuwa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Dandume and Funtua.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jibia and Kaita.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Katsina.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ingawa, Kankia, and Kusada.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kafur and Malumfashi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Dutsi and Mashi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Matazu and Musawa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Baure and Zango.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.