The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Kogi State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editKogi State is a diverse state in the North Central with a large number of mineral resources but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector, deforestation, and low vaccination rates. Politically, the state's early 2019 elections were described by a swing towards the APC as the party was mainly successful, unseating almost all PDP senators and house members to sweep most House of Representatives and two senate seats as the state was won by APC presidential nominee Muhammadu Buhari with over 54%. The House of Assembly election also was a win for the APC as the party won every seat in the assembly. The November election ended similarly with incumbent Bello winning election to a second term of governor and the APC gained a senate seat in a rerun election; however, both elections were riddled with irregularities and electoral violence.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
|
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 14% | 17% | 2% | 31% | – | 15% | 17% | 4% |
| Nextier (Kogi crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 41.1% | 25.7% | – | 25.7% | 1.4% | 5.7% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Kogi crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 13% | 61% | 9% | 13% | 1% | 4% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][2] | Tossup | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][3] | |||
| Tinubu: | 37.73% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 21.55% | ||
| Abubakar: | 22.54% | ||
| Others: | 18.18% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][4] |
Obi | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][5] | Tinubu | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][6] | |||
| Tinubu: | 35% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 15% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 5% | ||
| Abubakar: | 35% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 15% | ||
| The Nation[f][7][8] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Kogi Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kogi East Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kogi West Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Adavi/Okehi Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ajaokuta Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ankpa/Omala/Olamaboro Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Bassa/Dekina Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ibaji/Idah/Igalamela/Odolu Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kabba/Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Lokoja Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Okene/Ogori-Magogo Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Yagba East/Yagba West/Mopamuro Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Adavi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ajaokuta | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ankpa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bassa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Dekina | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibaji | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Idah | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Igalamela-Odolu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ijumu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kabba/Bunu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kogi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Lokoja | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mopa-Muro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ofu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Okehi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Okene | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Olamaboro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Omala | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Yagba East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Yagba West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Adavi, Ajaokuta, Okehi, Okene, and Ogori/Magongo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ankpa, Bassa, Dekina, Ibaji, Idah, Igalamela-Odolu, Ofu, Olamaboro, and Omala.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ijumu, Kabba/Bunu, Kogi, Lokoja, Mopa Muro, Yagba East, Yagba West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Adavi and Okehi.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Ajaokuta.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ankpa, Olamaboro, and Omala.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bassa and Dekina.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibaji, Idah, and Igalamela-Odolu.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ijumu and Kabba/Bunu.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Lokoja.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ogori/Magongo and Okene.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Mopa-Muro, Yagba East, and Yagba West.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.