The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Nasarawa State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editNasarawa State is a large state in the North Central with vast natural areas and a improving health sector but facing underdeveloped agriculture and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, inter-ethnic violence, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state. Politically, the state's 2019 elections had a significant swing towards the state APC. In federal elections, Buhari won the state by just 1% while the APC swept all senate seats by gaining two PDP-held seats. Similarly, the APC gained one PDP-held House of Representatives seat, held the governorship, and kept the majority in the House of Assembly.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 10% | 51% | 2% | 15% | – | 14% | 5% | 4% |
| Nextier (Nasarawa crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 28.2% | 35.9% | – | 30.8% | – | 5.1% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Nasarawa crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 6% | 43% | 4% | 14% | – | 33% | – | – |
| LAMECON (Nasarawa State Election Opinion Poll) | 5 October - 4 Dec 2022 | 1027 | 18.1% | 42.6% | 10.3% | 28.5% | 0.4% | - | - |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][2] | Tossup | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][3] | |||
| Tinubu: | 37.54% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 21.11% | ||
| Abubakar: | 23.70% | ||
| Others: | 17.65% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][4] |
Obi | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][5] | Tinubu | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][6] | |||
| Tinubu: | 30% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 25% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 10% | ||
| Abubakar: | 25% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 10% | ||
| The Nation[f][7][8] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Nasarawa North Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Nasarawa South Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Nasarawa West Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Akwanga/Nasarawa/Eggon/Wamba Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Awe/Doma/Keana Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Keffi/Karu/Kokona Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Lafia/Obi Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Nassarawa/Toto Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Akwanga | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Awe | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Doma | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Eggon | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Karu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Keana | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Keffi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kokona | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Lafia | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Nasarawa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Obi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Toto | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Wamba | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akwanga, Eggon, and Wamba.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Awe, Doma, Keana, Lafia and Obi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Karu, Keffi, Kokona, Nasarawa and Toto.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akwanga, Eggon, and Wamba.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Awe, Doma, and Keana.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Karu, Keffi, and Kokona.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Lafia and Obi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Nasarawa and Toto.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.