The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Niger State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editNiger State is a large, diverse state in the North Central with agricultural and energy potential but facing a debilitated health sector and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state with added fears of ISWAP encroachment.[2][3]
Politically, the state's 2019 elections were a solidification of the control of the state APC. In federal elections, Buhari retained the state presidentially while the APC swept all three senate seats and ten House of Representatives seats. On the state level, the party also held the governorship and kept the majority in the House of Assembly.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 17% | 25% | 6% | 13% | – | 21% | 7% | 11% |
| Nextier (Niger crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 26.1% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 55.7% | 3.4% | 8.0% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Niger crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 13% | 14% | 3% | 47% | 1% | 21% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][4] | Tossup | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][5] | |||
| Tinubu: | 47.59% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 16.94% | ||
| Abubakar: | 20.88% | ||
| Others: | 14.58% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][6] |
Abubakar | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][7] | Tinubu | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][8] | |||
| Tinubu: | 35% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 10% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 10% | ||
| Abubakar: | 35% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 10% | ||
| The Nation[f][9][10] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Niger East Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Niger North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Niger South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Agaie/Lapai Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Agwara/Borgu Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Bida/Gbako/Katcha Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Bosso/Paikoro Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Chanchaga Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Gurara/Suleja/Tafa Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kontagora/Wushishi/Mariga/Mashegu Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Lavun/Mokwa/Edati Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Magama/Rijau Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Shiroro/Rafi/Munya Federal Constituency[s] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Agaie | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Agwara | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bida | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Borgu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bosso | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Chanchaga | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Edati | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gbako | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gurara | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Katcha | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kontagora | 20,032 | 48.00% | 14,248 | 34.14% | 2,832 | 6.78% | 3,847 | 9.22% | 776 | 1.86% | 41,735 | 31.73% |
| Lapai | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Lavun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Magama | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mariga | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mashegu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mokwa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Munya | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Paikoro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Rafi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Rijau | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Shiroro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Suleja | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Tafa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Wushishi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bosso, Chanchaga, Munya, Paikoro, Rafi, Shiroro, Suleja, Tafa, and Gurara.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Agwara, Borgu, Kontagora, Magama, Mariga, Mashegu, Rijau, and Wushishi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Agaie, Bida, Edati, Gbako, Katcha, Lapai, Lavun, and Mokwa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Agaie and Lapai.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Agwara and Borgu.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bida, Gbako, and Katcha.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bosso and Paikoro.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Chanchaga.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gurara, Suleja, and Tafa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kontagora, Mashegu, Mariga, and Wushishi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Edati, Lavun, and Mokwa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Magama and Rijau.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Munya, Rafi, and Shiroro.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ "Bandits Occupy 12 Of 25 Local Government Areas In Niger State, Governor Laments". Sahara Reporters. Retrieved 28 April 2022.
- ^ Olaniyi, Muideen (18 January 2022). "Sani Bello: Niger Has Recorded 50 Attacks, Lost 220 Lives In January Alone". Daily Trust. Retrieved 28 April 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.