The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Ogun State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editOgun State is a small, Yoruba-majority southwestern state with vast natural areas and significant economic growth but facing a lack of affordable housing, an underdeveloped agricultural sector, and brain drain.[citation needed]
Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a reassertion of the state APC's control in the wake of a party rift that led allies of outgoing Governor Ibikunle Amosun to defect to the APM. Despite the defections, the APC held the gubernatorial office by a narrow 3% margin and the party won a majority in the House of Assembly. Federally, the APC swept all three Senate seats and won most House of Representatives seats. For the presidency, Ogun was won by APC nominee Muhammadu Buhari with about 50% but swung slightly towards the PDP.[citation needed]
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 32% | 23% | 0% | 9% | – | 13% | 12% | 12% |
| Nextier (Ogun crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 35.2% | 36.3% | – | 11.0% | 5.5% | 12.1% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Ogun crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 18% | 22% | – | 4% | 9% | 48% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][2] | Likely Tinubu | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][3] | |||
| Tinubu: | 44.95% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 18.14% | ||
| Abubakar: | 21.63% | ||
| Others: | 15.28% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][4] |
Tinubu | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][5] | Tinubu | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][6] | |||
| Tinubu: | 45% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 5% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 15% | ||
| Abubakar: | 20% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 15% | ||
| The Nation[f][7][8] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Ogun Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ogun East Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ogun West Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Abeokuta North/Obafemi Owode/Odeda Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Abeokuta South Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ado-Odo/Ota Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Egbado North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Egbado South and Ipokia Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ifo/Ewekoro Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ijebu North/Ijebu East/Ogun Waterside Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ijebu Ode/Odogbolu/Ijebu North East Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ikenne/Shagamu/Remo North Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Abeokuta North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Abeokuta South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ado-Odo/Ota | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ewekoro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ifo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ijebu East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ijebu North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ijebu North East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ijebu Ode | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ikenne | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Imeko Afon | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ipokia | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Obafemi Owode | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Odogbolu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Odeda | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ogun Waterside | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Remo North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sagamu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Yewa North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Yewa South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Abeokuta North, Abeokuta South, Ewekoro, Ifo, Obafemi Owode, and Odeda.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ijebu East, Ijebu North, Ijebu Ode, Ikenne, Odogbolu, Ogun Waterside, Remo North, and Sagamu.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ado-Odo/Ota, Imeko Afon, Ipokia, Yewa North, and Yewa South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Abeokuta North, Obafemi Owode, and Odeda.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Abeokuta South.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Ado-Odo/Ota.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Imeko Afon and Yewa North.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Egbado South and Ipokia.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ifo and Ewekoro.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ijebu East, Ijebu North, and Ogun Waterside.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ijebu North East, Ijebu Ode, and Odogbolu.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikenne, Remo North, and Shagamu.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.