The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Plateau State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editPlateau State is a diverse, agriculture-based state in the North Central; although it has vast natural resources, Plateau has faced issues in security as inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers heavily affect the state. The overproliferation of weaponry and increased pressure for land along with failures in governance led to the worsening of these clashes in the years ahead of the election.[2]
The 2019 Plateau elections were mixed for both major parties. On the federal level, PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar won the state by 8% but it swung slightly towards Buhari; legislatively, the parties fairly evenly split the Senate seats and House of Representatives seats. Statewise, incumbent APC Governor Simon Lalong won re-election by about 4% of the vote and the APC won a majority in the House of Assembly.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| Nextier (Plateau crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 8.7% | 39.1% | – | 46.4% | – | 5.8% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Plateau crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 8% | 69% | 1% | 14% | 1% | 7% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][3] | Lean Obi | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][4] | |||
| Tinubu: | 33.02% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 29.97% | ||
| Abubakar: | 20.12% | ||
| Others: | 16.89% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][5] |
Obi | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][6] | Obi | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][7] | |||
| Tinubu: | 10% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 35% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 5% | ||
| Abubakar: | 35% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 40% | ||
| The Nation[f][8][9] | Battleground | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Plateau Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Plateau North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Plateau South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Barkin Ladi/Riyom Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Bokkos/Mangu Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Jos North/Bassa Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Jos South/Jos East Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kanke/Pankshin/Kanam Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Langtang North/Langtang South Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Mikang/Qua'an/Pan/Shendam Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Wase Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Barkin Ladi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bassa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bokkos | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Jos East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Jos North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Jos South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kanam | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kanke | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Langtang North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Langtang South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mangu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Mikang | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Pankshin | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Qua'an Pan | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Riyom | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Shendam | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Wase | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bokkos, Mangu, Pankshin, Kanke, and Kanam.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Barkin Ladi, Bassa, Jos East, Jos North, Jos South, and Riyom.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Langtang North, Langtang South, Mikang, Qua'an Pan, Shendam, and Wase.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Barkin Ladi and Riyom.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bokkos and Mangu.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bassa and Jos North.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jos East and Jos South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kanam, Kanke, and Pankshin.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Langtang North and Langtang South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Mikang, Qua'an Pan, and Shendam.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Wase.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Ojewale, Oluwole (7 July 2021). "What's driving violence in Nigeria's north central region". The Conversation. Retrieved 15 March 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.