The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Sokoto State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editSokoto State is a large northwestern state with agricultural and energy potential but facing a debilitated health sector, low education rates, and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, religious riots, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state.
Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a swing back towards the PDP. Although Buhari won the state again (by 15%), Sokoto was the state that swung the most towards the PDP in the presidential election; legislatively, the PDP held its one Senate seat after a court ruling and won four House of Representatives seats after the APC won all legislative seats in 2015. Statewise, incumbent Governor Aminu Tambuwal won re-election by about 300 votes while the APC won a narrow majority in the House of Assembly.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 32% | 4% | 2% | 30% | – | 23% | 5% | 3% |
| Nextier (Sokoto crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 18.2% | 5.2% | 9.1% | 18.2% | – | 6.5% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Sokoto crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 16% | 38% | 5% | 23% | 6% | 11% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][2] | Likely Abubakar | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][3] | |||
| Tinubu: | 28.49% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 8.32% | ||
| Abubakar: | 56.89% | ||
| Others: | 6.31% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][4] |
Abubakar | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][5] | Abubakar | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][6] | |||
| Tinubu: | 35% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | – | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 15% | ||
| Abubakar: | 40% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 10% | ||
| The Nation[f][7][8] | Battleground | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Sokoto East Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Sokoto North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Sokoto South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Binji/Silame Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Dange-Shuni/Bodinga/Tureta Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Goronyo/Gada Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Illela/Gwadabawa Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Isa/Sabon Birni Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kebbe/Tambuwal Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Kware/Wamakko Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Sokoto North/Sokoto South Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Tangaza/Gudu Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Wurno/Rabah Federal Constituency[s] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Yabo/Shagari Federal Constituency[t] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Binji | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bodinga | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Dange Shuni | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gada | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Goronyo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gudu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gwadabawa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Illela | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Isa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kebbe | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kware | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Rabah | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sabon Birni | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Shagari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Silame | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sokoto North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sokoto South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Tambuwal | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Tangaza | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Tureta | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Wamako | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Wurno | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Yabo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gada, Goronyo, Gwadabawa, Illela, Isa, Rabah, Sabon Birni, and Wurno.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Binji, Gudu, Kware, Silame, Sokoto North, Sokoto South, Tangaza, and Wamako.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bodinga, Dange Shuni, Kebbe, Shagari, Tambuwal, Tureta, and Yabo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Binji and Silame.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bodinga, Dange Shuni, and Tureta.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gada and Goronyo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gwadabawa and Illela.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Isa and Sabon Birni.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kebbe and Tambuwal.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kware and Wamako.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Sokoto North and Sokoto South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gudu and Tangaza.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Rabah and Wurno.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Shagari and Yabo.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.