The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Taraba State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
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Background
editTaraba State is a diverse, agriculture-based state in the Middle Belt that has faced challenges in security as inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers heavily affect the region. The overproliferation of weaponry and increased pressure for land along with failures in governance led to the worsening of these clashes in the years ahead of the election.[2]
Politically, the 2019 elections were a mixed bag for both major parties. On the federal level, PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state by 7% but it swung slightly towards Buhari; legislatively, the parties fairly evenly split the Senate seats and House of Representatives seats. Statewise, Ishaku won re-election by a wide margin and the PDP won a majority in the House of Assembly.
Polling
edit| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 9% | 22% | 1% | 30% | – | 28% | 7% | 1% |
| Nextier (Taraba crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 25.5% | 21.6% | – | 51.0% | – | 2.0% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Taraba crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 13% | 54% | 4% | 28% | – | 1% | – | – |
Projections
edit| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][3] | Lean Abubakar | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][4] | |||
| Tinubu: | 27.52% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 27.37% | ||
| Abubakar: | 33.77% | ||
| Others: | 16.35% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][5] |
Obi | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][6] | Abubakar | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][7] | |||
| Tinubu: | 10% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 20% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 20% | ||
| Abubakar: | 40% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 10% | ||
| The Nation[f][8][9] | Abubakar | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
editResults
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
editThe results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Taraba Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Taraba North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Taraba South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
editThe results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Bali/Gassol Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Jalingo/Yorro/Zing Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Karim Lamido/Lau/Ardo-Kola Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Sardauna/Gashaka/Kurmi Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Takum/Donga/Ussa Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Wukari/Ibi Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
editThe results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Ardo Kola | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bali | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Donga | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gashaka | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Gassol | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Jalingo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Karim Lamido | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kurmi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Lau | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Sardauna | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Takum | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ussa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Wukari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Yorro | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Zing | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bali, Gashaka, Gassol, Kurmi, and Sardauna.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ardo Kola, Jalingo, Karim Lamido, Lau, Yorro, and Zing.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Donga, Ibi, Takum, Ussa, and Wukari.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bali and Gassol Gassol.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Jalingo, Yorro, and Zing.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ardo Kola, Karim Lamido, and Lau.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Gashaka, Kurmi, and Sardauna.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Donga, Takum, and Ussa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibi and Wukari.
References
edit- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Ojewale, Oluwole (7 July 2021). "What's driving violence in Nigeria's north central region". The Conversation. Retrieved 15 March 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.