The 2024 Ligurian regional election is taking place in Liguria, Italy on 27–28 October 2024.[1] The snap election was called after the resignation of incumbent president, Giovanni Toti, following an investigation into corruption, particularly regarding favors to local businessmen in Genoa in exchange for financial support in local elections in 2021 and 2022.[2][3]
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All 31 seats to the Regional Council of Liguria | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bucci won the electoral competition by outperforming his opponent in Ventimiglia, Sanremo, Rapallo among other centers where his coalition reached 50 and 60% of the votes, while Orlando performed strongly in Genova, despite Bucci being the city mayor there, and his home town of La Spezia, while also winning in Savona as well.
The race brought significant attention as it was considered a test for the national government but also for the center-right coalition in the region.
Electoral system
editThe Regional Council of Liguria is composed of 30 members, plus the president elect. The president elect is the candidate winning a plurality of votes at the election. Within the council, 24 seats are elected in provincial constituencies by proportional representation. The remaining 6 councillors are assigned as a majority bonus if the winning candidate has less than 18 seats, otherwise they are distributed among the losing coalitions.[4]
A single list must get at least 3% of the votes in a province in order to access the proportional distribution of seats, unless the list is connected to a coalition with more than 5% of the vote.[4]
Parties and candidates
edit| Political party or alliance | Constituent lists | Previous result | Candidate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | Seats | ||||||
| Centre-right coalition | Bucci for President Liguria Wins (incl. NM)[5] | 22.6 | 7 | ||||
| League | 17.1 | 6 | |||||
| Brothers of Italy | 10.9 | 3 | |||||
| Forza Italia | 5.3 | 1 | |||||
| Union of the Centre | 0.7 | 0 | |||||
| Popular Alternative | — | — | |||||
| Ligurian Pride | — | — | |||||
| Centre-left coalition | Democratic Party | 19.9 | 6 | ||||
| Five Star Movement | 7.8 | 2 | |||||
| Greens and Left Alliance (incl. SI, EV, Pos) | 3.9 | 1 | |||||
| Civic Reformist Pact (incl. A, PRI, PER, MRE) | — | — | |||||
| Head-on Ligurians (incl. PSI) | — | — | |||||
| Andrea Orlando List | — | — | |||||
| For the Alternative (incl. PRC, PCI, PaP) | — | — | Nicola Rollando
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| Northern People’s Party | — | — | Maria Antonietta Cella
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| United for the Constitution | — | — | Nicola Morra
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| Workers' Communist Party | — | — | |||||
| Sovereign Popular Democracy | — | — | Francesco Toscano
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| Independence! | — | — | Alessandro Rosson
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| Force of the People | — | — | Davide Felice
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Opinion polls
editCandidates
edit| Date | Polling firm/ Client |
Sample size | Bucci | Orlando | Morra | Others | Undecided | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2024 | Opinio (exit poll) | – | 47.0–51.0 | 45.5–49.5 | 0.0–2.0 | – | – | 1.5 |
| 28 Oct 2024 | SWG (exit poll) | – | 46.0–50.0 | 45.0–49.0 | – | 4.0–6.0 | – | 1.0 |
| 24 Sep–3 Oct 2024 | BiDiMedia | 1,000 | 47.5 | 47.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 23.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 Oct 2024 | Noto | – | 46.0 | 46.0 | – | 6.0 – 10.0 | 31.0 | Tie |
| 18 Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 47.0 | 50.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 3.0 |
| 47.0 | 53.0 | – | 0.0 | 48.0 | 6.0 |
- Hypothetical polls
| Date | Polling firm/ Client |
Sample size | Centre-right | Orlando | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 46.0 | 54.0[a] | – | 8.0 |
| 47.0[b] | 53.0 | – | 6.0 | |||
| 48.0[c] | 52.0 | – | 4.0 | |||
| 45.0[d] | 55.0 | – | 10.0 | |||
| 45.0[e] | 55.0 | – | 10.0 | |||
| 47.0[f] | 53.0 | – | 6.0 | |||
| 45.0[g] | 55.0 | – | 10.0 | |||
| 5–7 Aug 2024 | Euromedia[h] | – | 51.3[i] | 48.7 | – | 2.6 |
| 52.3[j] | 47.7 | – | 4.6 | |||
| 50.4[k] | 49.6 | – | 0.8 | |||
| 52.1[l] | 47.9 | – | 4.2 | |||
| 50.9[m] | 49.1 | – | 1.8 |
Parties
edit| Date | Polling firm | Sample size | Centre-right | Centre-left | UpC | Others | Lead | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FdI | FI | Lega | VL | NM | LP | Oth. | PD | M5S | AOP | AVS | IV | PCR | +E | LaTA | ||||||
| 24 Sep–3 Oct 2024 | BiDiMedia | 1,000 | 20.2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 25.9 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 7.1 | — | 2.2 | — | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 5.7 | |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 25.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | — | 4.0 | — | 1.0 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
- ^ Generic centre-left candidate
- ^ Carlo Bagnasco
- ^ Ilaria Cavo
- ^ Lorenzo Cuocolo
- ^ Pietro Piciocchi
- ^ Edoardo Rixi
- ^ Marco Scajola
- ^ This poll was commissioned by a political party, Giovanni Toti Liguria Committee
- ^ Edoardo Rixi
- ^ Ilaria Cavo
- ^ Pietro Piciocchi
- ^ Marco Scajola
- ^ Giacomo Raul Giampedrone
Results
edit  | |||||||||
| Candidates | Votes | % | Seats | Parties | Votes | % | Seats | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | Brothers of Italy | 84,816 | 15.08 | 5 | ||
| Bucci for President Liguria Wins | 53,208 | 9.46 | 3 | ||||||
| League | 47,652 | 8.47 | 3 | ||||||
| Forza Italia | 44,849 | 7.98 | 3 | ||||||
| Ligurian Pride | 32,061 | 5.70 | 3 | ||||||
| Union of the Centre | 7,294 | 1.30 | – | ||||||
| Popular Alternative | 1,929 | 0.34 | – | ||||||
| Total | 271,809 | 48.34 | 17 | ||||||
| Andrea Orlando | 282,669 | 47.36 | 1 | Democratic Party | 160,063 | 28.47 | 8 | ||
| Greens and Left Alliance | 34,716 | 6.17 | 2 | ||||||
| Andrea Orlando List | 29,808 | 5.30 | 1 | ||||||
| Five Star Movement | 25,659 | 4.56 | 1 | ||||||
| Civic Reformist Pact | 9,813 | 1.75 | – | ||||||
| Head-on Ligurians | 9,127 | 1.62 | – | ||||||
| Total | 269,186 | 47.87 | 12 | ||||||
| Nicola Morra | 5,223 | 0.88 | – | United for the Constitution | 4,922 | 0.88 | – | ||
| Nicola Rollando | 5,079 | 0.85 | – | For the Alternative | 4,920 | 0.87 | – | ||
| Francesco Toscano | 5,071 | 0.85 | – | Sovereign Popular Democracy | 4,709 | 0.84 | – | ||
| Marco Ferrando | 2,099 | 0.35 | – | Workers' Communist Party | 1,813 | 0.32 | – | ||
| Maria Antonietta Cella | 2,076 | 0.35 | – | Northern People’s Party | 1,674 | 0.30 | – | ||
| Davide Felice | 1,855 | 0.31 | – | Force of the People | 1,696 | 0.30 | – | ||
| Alessandro Rosson | 1,668 | 0.28 | – | Independence! | 1,570 | 0.28 | – | ||
| Total candidates | 596,833 | 100.00 | 2 | Total parties | 562,299 | 100.00 | 29 | ||
| Blank and invalid votes | 15,915 | 2.58 | |||||||
| Registered voters/turnout | 1,341,693 | 45.97 | |||||||
| Source: Ministry of the Interior – Election in Liguria | |||||||||
Results by province and capital city
editWhilst the province of Imperia voted for Bucci by 24 points, in all the other provinces the end result came within five points: Bucci won the province of Savona by 3 points, whilst Orlando won by 2 points in the metropolitan City of Genoa and by 4 points in the province of La Spezia.[6]
In the major cities, despite being the incumbent mayor of Genoa, Bucci lost in his hometown to Orlando by 8 points but won Sanremo by 25.5 points and Imperia by 9 points; whilst Savona voted for Orlando by 20 points and La Spezia by 5 points. Overall, Orlando's strongest areas were the three largest cities of the region (Genoa, La Spezia, Savona) and their surrounding municipalities, whilst Bucci was the strongest west of Savona and in the Tigullio area east of Genova.[6][7] Orlando's strength in Savona can be attributed to opposition to a regasification plant in nearby Vado Ligure that former president Toti had proposed to build in a protected sea area.[8][9]
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See also
editReferences
edit- ^ Elezioni regionali 2024. Regione Liguria
- ^ "An Italian governor accused in a corruption probe has been placed under house arrest". Associated Press. 8 May 2024. Retrieved 8 May 2024.
- ^ "Italy's Liguria regional leader resigns after corruption probe arrest". Reuters. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ a b "Elezioni regionali Liguria 2020, la guida: candidati, liste e regolamento". Money.it (in Italian). 20 September 2020. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
- ^ https://noimoderati.it/elezioni-liguria-sostieni-marco-bucci-e-la-nostra-lista-civica-vince-liguria-bucci-presidente/
- ^ a b "Eligendo: Regionale Liguria del 27-28 ottobre 2024". Italian Ministry of Interior. Retrieved 2024-10-29.
- ^ "Youtrend on X: "Orlando ha vinto a Genova col 52,3%, ma anche a Savona (58%) e La Spezia (51,1%). Il candidato del centrodestra ha invece prevalso a Imperia (52,6%), ma in generale è andato bene in tutto l'estremo Ponente (64,2% a Ventimiglia, 60,6% a Sanremo) e nel Tigullio (61,6% a Rapallo, 56% a Chiavari)."" [Orlando won in Genoa with 52.3%, but also in Savona (58%) and La Spezia (51.1%). The centre-right candidate instead prevailed in Imperia (52.6%), but in general he did well in the whole of the far west (64.2% in Ventimiglia, 60.6% in Sanremo) and in Tigullio (61.6% in Rapallo, 56% in Chiavari).] (in Italian).
- ^ "Bucci perde a Genova ma vince in provincia di Savona: solo l'area del rigassificatore e quella di Cairo scelgono Orlando - IVG.it". Il Vostro Giornale (in Italian). 2024-10-28. Retrieved 2024-10-29.
- ^ "Il rigassificatore di Piombino sarà spostato a Vado Ligure entro il 2026". Il Post (in Italian). 2023-07-19. Retrieved 2024-10-29.