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2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota

(Redirected from 2024 South Dakota Republican presidential primary)

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Dakota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



Like its northern twin, South Dakota is a sparsely-populated state in the Great Plains, and a Republican stronghold at both the state and federal levels. It hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it in 1964, against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory; not even in 1972, when favorite son George McGovern lost his state by 8.6% as he suffered a 49-state defeat to Richard Nixon. The last presidential Democrat to come within 5% of carrying South Dakota was Bill Clinton (who lost the state by just over 3 points in both of his victories) in 1996, and the last to come within 10% was Midwesterner Barack Obama (who lost the state by 8.4%) in 2008.

Republican Donald Trump has comfortably continued South Dakota's Republican streak, carrying the state by 29.7% in 2016 and again by 26.1% four years later. Running under the Republican banner a third consecutive time, Trump is widely expected to win South Dakota again in 2024.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 South Dakota Democratic presidential primary

The South Dakota Democratic was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

Republican primary

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The South Dakota Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico. Under state law, no primary will be held if a candidate runs for a nomination unopposed.[2] As Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to file for the presidential primary, no popular vote was held.[3]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[4] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[5] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[8] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[9] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[10] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[11] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[12] Solid R June 26, 2024

Polling

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Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[13][A] April 13–21, 2024 303 (LV) – 60% 32% 8%
Emerson College[14] January 23–28, 2024 1,777 (RV) ± 2.2% 55% 26% 18%
Emerson College[15] October 1–4, 2023 432 (RV) ± 4.7% 50% 28% 22%
Emerson College[16][B] October 19–21, 2022 1,500 (LV) ± 2.4% 53% 33% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[17][C] May 10–13, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 50% 31% 11% 8%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[13][A] April 13–21, 2024 303 (LV) – 51% 38% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[13][A] April 13–21, 2024 303 (LV) – 53% 33% 14%

Results

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2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota[18][self-published source]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
Democratic
Libertarian
Independent
Write-in
Total votes

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by KELO-TV
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch & Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota

References

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  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "2024 Primary Election Candidate List". SD SOS. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  3. ^ Coote, Darryl (June 5, 2024). "Biden, Trump snap up more primary victories as key congressional races decided". United Press International. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  5. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  10. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  11. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  13. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  14. ^ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
  15. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "South Dakota: Quarter of Residents think Gov. Noem Should be Trump's Running Mate". Emerson Polling.
  16. ^ Yost, Rae (October 27, 2022). "Trump defeats Biden in South Dakota in hypothetical 2024 race, poll shows". KELOLAND News.
  17. ^ Whitney, Stu (May 23, 2024). "Poll: Trump has sizable lead in South Dakota but shy of 2016 and 2020 numbers". South Dakota News Watch.
  18. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
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