2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota

2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota
Trump 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% 90–100%	Harris 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
President before election; Joe Biden; Democratic	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Dakota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

Republican Donald Trump carried the state by 29.7% in 2016 and again by 26.1% four years later. Trump won the state by 29.2% in 2024.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The South Dakota Democratic was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

Republican primary

The South Dakota Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico. Under state law, no primary will be held if a candidate runs for a nomination unopposed.^[2] As Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to file for the presidential primary, no popular vote was held.^[3]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[4]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[5]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[6]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[7]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[8]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN^[9]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist^[10]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538^[11]	Solid R	June 11, 2024
RCP^[12]	Solid R	June 26, 2024
NBC News^[13]	Safe R	October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College^[14]	October 19–22, 2024	825 (LV)	± 3.3%	62%	35%	3%^[b]
Emerson College^[14]	October 19–22, 2024	825 (LV)	± 3.3%	62%^[c]	37%	1%^[d]

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[15]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	303 (LV)	–	60%	32%	8%
Emerson College^[16]	January 23–28, 2024	1,777 (RV)	± 2.2%	55%	26%	18%
Emerson College^[17]	October 1–4, 2023	432 (RV)	± 4.7%	50%	28%	22%
Emerson College^[18]^[B]	October 19–21, 2022	1,500 (LV)	± 2.4%	53%	33%	14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Mason-Dixon^[19]^[C]	May 10–13, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.5%	50%	31%	11%	8%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[15]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	303 (LV)	–	51%	38%	11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[15]^[A]	April 13–21, 2024	303 (LV)	–	53%	33%	14%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota^[20]^{[self-published source]}
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	272,000	63.4%	1.63%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	146,837	34.2%	1.4%
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	7,202	1.7%	N/A
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	2,778	0.6%	2.03%
	Write-in
Total votes			428,817	100.00%

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ "Someone else" with 2%
^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
^ "Someone else" with 1%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b ^c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
^ Poll sponsored by KELO-TV
^ Poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch & Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ "2024 Primary Election Candidate List". SD SOS. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
^ Coote, Darryl (June 5, 2024). "Biden, Trump snap up more primary victories as key congressional races decided". United Press International. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
^ "October 2024 South Dakota Poll: Trump 62%, Harris 35%". Emerson College Polling. October 24, 2024.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
^ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "South Dakota: Quarter of Residents think Gov. Noem Should be Trump's Running Mate". Emerson Polling.
^ Yost, Rae (October 27, 2022). "Trump defeats Biden in South Dakota in hypothetical 2024 race, poll shows". KELOLAND News.
^ Whitney, Stu (May 23, 2024). "Poll: Trump has sizable lead in South Dakota but shy of 2016 and 2020 numbers". South Dakota News Watch.
^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 24, 2024.

[key-14] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[SE2-16] "Someone else" with 2%

[lean-17] With voters who lean towards a given candidate

[SE1-18] "Someone else" with 1%

[Kennedy-20] Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

[KELO-24] Poll sponsored by KELO-TV

[26] Poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch & Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] "2024 Primary Election Candidate List". SD SOS. Retrieved May 22, 2024.

[3] Coote, Darryl (June 5, 2024). "Biden, Trump snap up more primary victories as key congressional races decided". United Press International. Retrieved June 5, 2024.

[4] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[5] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[6] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[7] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[8] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[9] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

[10] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.

[11] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.

[12] "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

[13] "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.

[15] "October 2024 South Dakota Poll: Trump 62%, Harris 35%". Emerson College Polling. October 24, 2024.

[Kennedy24-19] "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.

[21] Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.

[22] Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "South Dakota: Quarter of Residents think Gov. Noem Should be Trump's Running Mate". Emerson Polling.

[23] Yost, Rae (October 27, 2022). "Trump defeats Biden in South Dakota in hypothetical 2024 race, poll shows". KELOLAND News.

[25] Whitney, Stu (May 23, 2024). "Poll: Trump has sizable lead in South Dakota but shy of 2016 and 2020 numbers". South Dakota News Watch.

[u167-27] "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 24, 2024.

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