Wikipedia

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 New Mexico Senate election.

The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich is seeking a third term.[1] He is being challenged by Republican financier Nella Domenici. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed.[2] Republicans had not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Martin Heinrich Nella Domenici
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 497,249 405,926
Percentage 55.06% 44.94%
County results
Heinrich:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Domenici:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Martin Heinrich
Democratic

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D) $9,067,125 $5,341,198 $4,380,901
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Results

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Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 122,961 100.0%
Total votes 122,961 100.0%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Disqualified

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Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nella Domenici (R) $1,525,766 $464,576 $1,061,190
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Results

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Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Nella Domenici 79,809 100.0%
Total votes 79,809 100.0%

Independents and third-party candidates

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Candidates

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Filed paperwork

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  • Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman[7]
  • Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman[8]
  • Jerry Rose (Independent)[9]
  • Tom Wakely (Green)[10]

General election

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Endorsements

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Nella Domenici (R)
Organizations
Martin Heinrich (D)
Organizations
Labor unions

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Solid D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[25] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Safe D November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[27] Safe D October 30, 2024
Elections Daily[28] Safe D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[29] Solid D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[30] Lean D August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[31] Safe D October 30, 2024
538[32] Solid D October 23, 2024

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D) $12,502,263 $10,330,618 $2,826,618
Nella Domenici (R) $4,777,524[a] $4,377,754 $399,769
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Nella
Domenici (R) 		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.4% 38.9% 12.7% Heinrich +9.5
RCP June 13 – October 26, 2024 November 4, 2024 48.7% 39.3% 12.0% Heinrich +9.4
270ToWin October 22 – November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.5% 44.5% 5.0% Heinrich +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.8% 43.1% 6.1% Heinrich +7.7%
Average 49.6% 41.5% 8.9% Heinrich +8.1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Martin
Heinrich (D) 		Nella
Domenici (R) 		Other Undecided
Victory Insights (R) November 1–3, 2024 600 (LV) – 50% 48% – 1%
Research & Polling Inc.[A] October 10–18, 2024 1,024 (LV) ± 3.1% 51% 40% 1%[d] 7%
SurveyUSA[B] September 12–18, 2024 619 (LV) ± 5.4% 47% 34% – 19%
Research & Polling Inc.[A] September 6–13, 2024 532 (LV) ± 4.2% 50% 38% 4%[e] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] September 6–9, 2024 521 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 37% 6%[f] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] August 25–28, 2024 488 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 33% 4%[g] 19%
Emerson College[D] August 20–22, 2024 965 (RV) ± 3.1% 49% 37% 4%[h] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] August 12–15, 2024 453 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 36% 7%[i] 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[C] July 31 – August 3, 2024 493 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 34% 4%[j] 21%
1892 Polling (R)[E] June 19–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[F] June 13–14, 2024 555 (V) ± 4.2% 47% 40% – 13%
Red Oak Strategies (R)[E] May 7–19, 2024 1,800 (LV) ± 2.3% 41% 38% – 21%
1892 Polling (R)[E] March 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 36% – –

Results

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2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico[33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Martin Heinrich (incumbent) 497,249 55.06% +0.97
Republican Nella Domenici 405,925 44.94% +14.41
Total votes 973,174 100.00%
Democratic hold
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

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  1. ^ $1,510,000 of this total was self-funded by Domenici
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ "Neither" with 1%
  5. ^ "Neither" with 4%
  6. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; and "Other" with 2%
  7. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 2%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  9. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  10. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Albuquerque Journal
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by KOB
  3. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  5. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Domenici
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by New Mexico Political Report

References

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  1. ^ a b Boetel, Ryan (May 4, 2023). "Heinrich announces re-election campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - New Mexico". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  4. ^ a b "2024 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
  5. ^ Mutnick, Ally (January 16, 2023). "Daughter of former GOP senator launches Senate run in New Mexico". Politico. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  6. ^ Cook, Cathy (February 13, 2024). "Former Bernalillo County sheriff disqualified from Senate race". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  7. ^ "CHICK, CAMERON MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  8. ^ "LUNA, BENJAMIN RALPH #1728 - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  9. ^ "ROSE, JERRY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  10. ^ "WAKELY, THOMAS JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
  11. ^ Ross, Alex (January 21, 2024). "Domenici nets signatures needed for primary ballot". Roswell Daily Record. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  12. ^ "314 Action Fund Endorses New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich for re-election". 314 Action.
  13. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Martin Heinrich for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  16. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  17. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  18. ^ "Martin Heinrich". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  19. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  20. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  21. ^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  22. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  23. ^ "AFSCME Council 18 Endorsements - New Mexico". AFSCME Council 18. May 20, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  24. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  25. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  26. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  27. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  28. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  29. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  30. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  31. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  32. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  33. ^ "New Mexico U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
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Official campaign websites
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