The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Kentucky voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996. Kentucky is widely expected to continue its Republican streak in 2024.
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editThe Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 131,449 | 71.33% | 43 | 43 | |
| Uncommitted | 32,908 | 17.86% | 8 | 8 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 11,190 | 6.07% | 0 | ||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 8,744 | 4.74% | 0 | ||
| Total: | 184,291 | 100.00% | 53 | 6 | 59 |
| Source: [3] | |||||
Republican primary
editThe Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 214,932 | 84.9% | 46 | 46 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 16,227 | 6.4% | |||
| Uncommitted | 8,984 | 3.6% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,798 | 3.1% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,512 | 1.0% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,643 | 0.6% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 939 | 0.4% | |||
| Total: | 253,035 | 100.0% | 46 | 46 | |
| Source: [4] | |||||
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[5] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[6] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[9] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[10] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[11] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[12] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[13] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
edit- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 450 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | August 9–10, 2023 | 737 (V) | – | 55% | 34% | 11% |
| co/efficient (R) | May 18–19, 2023 | 987 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 57% | 33% | 10% |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
References
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
- ^ "Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved May 21, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.