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32nd Alberta general election

The 32nd Alberta general election will be held in Alberta, Canada, to elect the members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta. According to Alberta's Election Act, it is scheduled for October 18, 2027,[1] but that does not affect the powers of the Lieutenant Governor of Alberta to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of the Westminster parliamentary system.

32nd Alberta general election
← 2023 On or before October 18, 2027 (On or before October 18, 2027)
All 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta
44 seats needed for a majority
 
Danielle Smith 2014.jpg
Naheed Nenshi PRS Ottawa 2015-1.jpg
Leader Danielle Smith Naheed Nenshi
Party United Conservative New Democratic
Leader since October 6, 2022 June 22, 2024
Leader's seat Brooks-Medicine Hat None
Last election 49 seats, 52.56% 38 seats, 44.02%
Current seats 49 37
Incumbent Premier

Danielle Smith
United Conservative



Timeline

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2023

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2024

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  • January 16: Rachel Notley announces intention to resign as NDP leader before the next election. She will remain as leader until a leadership race chooses a successor.[8]
  • May 30: Bill 21 receives Royal Assent, changing the next fixed election date to October 18, 2027.[9]
  • June 22: Naheed Nenshi is elected leader of the Alberta NDP.[10]
  • July 1: Shannon Phillips resigns as MLA for Lethbridge-West triggering a by-election.[11]
  • October 9: Jennifer Johnson, who appeared on the ballot as a UCP candidate in the last provincial election but was disavowed by the party during the campaign due to controversial comments, returned back to the UCP caucus.[12]

Opinion polls

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Pollster Client Dates
conducted 		Source UCP NDP Green Alberta Liberal WLC WIP Others Margin
of error 		Sample
size 		Polling
method 		Lead
Cardinal Research N/A Sep 17–28, 2024 [p 1] 50% 43% 2% 1% — — — 4% 2.5% 1,553 Telephone 7%
Leger N/A Aug 2–5, 2024 [p 2] 48% 40% 3% 4% 3% 2% — 2% 3.1% 1,005 Online 8%
Sovereign North Strategies Western Standard Jul 6–11, 2024 [p 3][p 4] 47% 46% 1% 4% — — 2% — 2.4% 2,861 Telephone 1%
Abacus Data N/A Jun 25–28, 2024 [p 5] 54% 40% — — — — — 6% 3.31% 1,000 Online 14%
June 22, 2024 Naheed Nenshi elected leader of the Alberta NDP.
Leger N/A May 22–25, 2024 [p 6] 47% 43% — 6% — — — 4% 3.1% 1,009 Online 4%
Leger N/A Mar 22–24, 2024 [p 7] 46% 44% 1% 4% 1% 1% — 2% 3.1% 1,002 Online 2%
Abacus Data N/A Mar 14–21, 2024 [p 8] 55% 40% — 2% — — — 2% 3.1% 1,000 Online 15%
Pallas Data N/A Mar 12–13, 2024 [p 9] 52% 45% — — — — — 3% 3.3% 868 IVR 7%
Leger N/A Mar 8–11, 2024 [p 10][p 11] 49% 41% — 6% — — — 4% 3.1% 1,001 Online 8%
Leger N/A Feb 9–12, 2024 [p 12] 49% 42% — 5% — — — 4% 3.1% 1,002 Online 7%
Leger N/A Jan 19–22, 2024 [p 13] 51% 40% — — — — — 9% 3.1% 1,001 Online 11%
Leger N/A Jan 12–15, 2024 [p 14] 50% 43% — 3% — — — 4% 3.1% 1,012 Online 7%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 24–Dec 1, 2023 [p 15][p 16] 53% 40% — 3% 2% — — 1% 5% 392 Online 13%
Leger N/A Oct 27–30, 2023 [p 17] 46% 47% — 5% — — — 2% 3.1% 1,001 Online 1%
Leger N/A Sep 15–18, 2023 [p 18] 49% 39% 2% 4% 3% 1% — 2% 3.1% 1,001 Online 10%
2023 general election May 29, 2023 52.63% 44.05% 0.76% 0.71% 0.24% 0.24% 0.05% 1.32% — — — 8.58%

Notes

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References

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  1. ^ "Alberta's Next Election". Elections Alberta. Archived from the original on 2024-06-09. Retrieved 2024-06-09.
  2. ^ "Premier Smith appoints new Alberta cabinet with many familiar faces in different portfolios". CTV News. June 9, 2023. Archived from the original on June 23, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
  3. ^ "'Did a remarkable job': Cooper reelected as Speaker in Alberta legislature". CTV News. June 20, 2023. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
  4. ^ "Final Message from Jordan Wilkie as Leader of the Green Party of Alberta". Facebook. Green Party of Alberta. September 18, 2023. Archived from the original on October 15, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  5. ^ "Jordan Wilkie". CTV News Edmonton. Bell Media. Archived from the original on October 5, 2023. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
  6. ^ "THE ALBERTA PARTY POLITICAL ASSOCIATION ANNOUNCES THE RESIGNATION OF LEADER BARRY MORISHITA". Alberta Party. Archived from the original on 2023-11-09. Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  7. ^ "Barry Morishita resigns as leader of seatless Alberta Party". CTV Edmonton. 2023-11-08. Archived from the original on 2023-11-10. Retrieved 2023-11-10.
  8. ^ Mertz, Emily (January 16, 2024). "Former Alberta premier Rachel Notley stepping down as NDP leader". Global News. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
  9. ^ "Bill 21: Emergency Statutes Amendment Act, 2024". Legislative Assembly of Alberta. Retrieved 2024-06-09.
  10. ^ "Former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi named Alberta NDP leader in landslide victory | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 2024-10-22.
  11. ^ "Shannon Phillips stepping down as Lethbridge-West MLA". CTV Calgary. 2024-06-10. Retrieved 2024-10-22.
  12. ^ "Alberta politician who compared transgender kids to feces rejoins UCP caucus". The Globe and Mail. 2024-10-09. Retrieved 2024-10-22.

Opinion poll sources

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  1. ^ "Alberta Provincial Polling September 17-28, 2024". Cardinal Research. 3 October 2024. Retrieved 4 October 2024.
  2. ^ "Government of Alberta Report Card August 2024" (PDF). Leger. 13 August 2024. Retrieved 16 August 2024.
  3. ^ "Alberta – Province Wide Survey of Decided Voters". Sovereign North Strategies. 19 July 2024. Retrieved 23 July 2024.
  4. ^ Polczer, Shaun (18 July 2024). "EXCLUSIVE: Poll says Nenshi would be premier if election held tomorrow". Western Standard. Retrieved 23 July 2024.
  5. ^ Coletto, David; Sheppard, Eddie (4 July 2024). "Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 14-points post-Nenshi leadership victory". Abacus Data. Retrieved 8 July 2024.
  6. ^ "Alberta May Polling" (PDF). Leger. 31 May 2024. Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  7. ^ "Government of Alberta Report Card: April 2024" (PDF). Leger Marketing. 4 April 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
  8. ^ "Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 15-points". Abacus Data. 27 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
  9. ^ "Pallas Alberta Poll: UCP 52, NDP 45". Pallas Data. 18 March 2024. Archived from the original on 18 March 2024. Retrieved 18 March 2024.
  10. ^ Kaufmann, Bill (14 March 2024). "Nenshi's leadership would boost voter support for Alberta NDP: poll". Calgary Herald. Postmedia Network. Archived from the original on 14 March 2024. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  11. ^ "Alberta Omni Report – March 2024" (PDF). Leger Marketing. Archived (PDF) from the original on 15 March 2024. Retrieved 15 March 2024.
  12. ^ "Legislation on Gender Affirming Care for Children & Polling: Survey of Albertans" (PDF). Leger. 15 February 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 17 February 2024. Retrieved 17 February 2024.
  13. ^ "Changes to the NDP in Alberta: Alberta Omni Report" (PDF). Leger. 26 January 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 January 2024. Retrieved 26 January 2024.
  14. ^ "Alberta Vote Intentions: Alberta Omni Report" (PDF). Leger. 19 January 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 January 2024. Retrieved 20 January 2024.
  15. ^ "Alberta Spotlight: Split over health care restructuring, most blame lack of resources for current challenges". Angus Reid Institute. 7 December 2023. Archived from the original on 16 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  16. ^ "2023.12.06_Alberta_Only.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  17. ^ "Alberta Vote Intentions" (PDF). Leger. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 10, 2023. Retrieved October 10, 2023.
  18. ^ "Government of Alberta Report Card" (PDF). Leger. 5 October 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 December 2023. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
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