The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027 to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba .
44th Manitoba general election
Under Manitoba's Elections Act , a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting .
January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson .
April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election will be held to fill the seat on June 18.
June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election , gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firm
Dates conducted
Source
NDP
PC
Liberal
Keystone
Green
Others
Margin of error
Sample size
Polling method
Lead
Probe Research
May 28 -Jun 9 , 2024
[p 1] [p 2]
51%
38%
6%
1%
1%
1%
3.1%
1,000
mixed
13%
Probe Research
Mar 5 -18, 2024
[p 3] [p 4]
49%
37%
8%
1%
2%
2%
3.1%
1,000
mixed
12%
Probe Research
Nov 22 -Dec 1 , 2023
[p 5] [p 6]
51%
38%
7%
1%
2%
1%
3.1%
1,000
mixed
13%
2023 general election
October 3, 2023
[p 7]
45.63%
41.86%
10.63%
0.77%
0.74%
0.37%
—
—
—
3.77%
Polling firm
Dates conducted
Source
Others
Margin of error
Sample size
Polling method
Lead
NDP
PC
Liberal
Keystone
Green
^ Elections Act , CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
^ Hoye, Bryce (October 3, 2023). "Solid NDP win cements Kinew as 1st First Nations premier in Manitoba history" . CBC News . Retrieved October 3, 2023 .
^ The Canadian Press (October 17, 2023). "Lone Manitoba Liberal MLA Cindy Lamoureux named party's interim leader" . CBC News . Retrieved October 17, 2023 .
^ Petz, Sarah (October 18, 2023). "Wab Kinew officially sworn in as Manitoba's 1st First Nations premier" . CBC News . Retrieved October 18, 2023 .
Opinion poll sources
edit
^ "NDP Extends Support Within Winnipeg, Across Manitoba (June 2024 Omnibus)" . Probe Research . June 14, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2024 .
^ "Omni 2406 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF) . Probe Reseach . Retrieved June 14, 2024 .
^ "March 2024 Manitoba Politics" . Probe Research . March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024 .
^ "Omni 2403 ES prov tables.spo" (PDF) . Probe Research . Retrieved March 28, 2024 .
^ "Manitoba Provincial Politics: December 2023 Probe Omnibus Survey" (PDF) . Probe Research . December 1, 2023. Retrieved December 15, 2023 .
^ "Omni 2312 ES prov tables.pdf" (PDF) . Probe Research . Retrieved March 28, 2024 .
^ Official Results