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2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

(Redirected from Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018)

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout64.85% Increase17.33pp [1]
 
Nominee Doug Ducey David Garcia
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,330,863 994,341
Percentage 56.00% 41.84%
Ducey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Garcia:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Doug Ducey
Republican

Elected Governor

Doug Ducey
Republican

The primary was held on August 28.[2] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Endorsements

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Doug Ducey
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Ducey 		Ken
Bennett 		Undecided
Emerson College Archived 2018-09-06 at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 44% 22% 35%

Results

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Results by county:
  Ducey
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 463,672 70.7
Republican Ken Bennett 191,775 29.3
Republican Robert Weber (write-in) 91 0.0
Total votes 655,538 100.0

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[6]
  • Steve Farley, state senator[34]
  • Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[35]

Declined

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Endorsements

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David Garcia
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Steve
Farley 		Kelly
Fryer 		David
Garcia 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018 589 ± 4.0% 25% 7% 40% 28%
Data Orbital Archived 2018-07-03 at the Wayback Machine June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 11% 6% 33% 49%
Emerson College Archived 2018-09-06 at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 13% 8% 30% 48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) May 21–23, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 11% 11% 32% 46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 446 – 22% – 43% 36%

Results

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Results by county:
  Garcia
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Farley
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Garcia 255,555 50.6
Democratic Steve Farley 163,072 32.3
Democratic Kelly Fryer 86,810 17.2
Democratic Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) 44 0.0
Total votes 505,481 100.0

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Disqualified

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  • Jeff Funicello, activist[52]
  • Barry Hess (write-in)[6]
  • Kevin McCormick,[6] candidate for president in 2016[53][54]

Endorsements

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Kevin McCormick
Individuals

Green primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Results

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Results by county:
  Torres
  •   90-100%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  Torres/Dyer tie
  •   50-60%
No votes
  •   
Green primary results[57]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angel Torres (write-in) 357 76.3
Green Noah Dyer (write-in) 111 23.7
Total votes 468 100.0

Independents

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Candidates

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Disqualified

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  • Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator[58][59]
  • Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist[60]

Declined

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General election

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Debates

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Dates Location Ducey Garcia Link
September 24, 2018 Tempe, Arizona Participant Participant Full debate – YouTube
September 25, 2018 Tucson, Arizona Participant Participant Full debate – C-SPAN

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Likely R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[63] Likely R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[64] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[65] Likely R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] Likely R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[67] Likely R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[68] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[69][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[70] Likely R November 5, 2018
Governing[71] Lean R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Ducey (R) 		David
Garcia (D) 		Angel
Torres (G) 		Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 39% – – –
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 55% 37% – – –
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 55% 40% – – 5%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 36% – – –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% – 2% 5%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 37% – – –
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 53% 40% – – 7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 36% – – –
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 37% – – –
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 54% 46% – – –
HarrisX Archived 2018-11-05 at the Wayback Machine October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 57% 35% – – –
Fox News October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 55% 37% – 2% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 54% 35% – 3% 7%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 52% 45% – 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 52% 43% – 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived 2018-10-30 at the Wayback Machine October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 55% 35% 4% – 7%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 54% 40% 5% <1% 2%
55% 42% – 1% 1%
793 RV ± 4.4% 54% 38% 5% <1% 3%
55% 41% – 1% 3%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 52% 41% – 1% 5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 57% 37% – 2% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 39% 1% – 3%
Change Research (D-Garcia) October 9–10, 2018 783 – 47% 40% – – 11%
OH Predictive Insights October 3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 37% 2% – 7%
Data Orbital Archived 2018-10-05 at the Wayback Machine October 1–3, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 52% 34% 2% 2% 9%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 55% 37% – 1% 7%
806 RV ± 3.5% 54% 35% – 2% 9%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 57% 43% – – –
Suffolk University Archived 2018-10-03 at the Wayback Machine September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 38% 2% 0% 10%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018 463 LV – 45% 40% – – 15%
610 RV – 41% 37% – – 19%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 42% 38% – 6% 14%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 49% 39% 6% <1% 6%
51% 43% – <1% 5%
763 RV ± 4.2% 48% 37% 7% <1% 7%
51% 42% – 1% 6%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 49% 46% – 0% 2%
854 RV ± 4.1% 48% 45% – 1% 4%
Ipsos Archived 2018-09-20 at the Wayback Machine September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 51% 39% – 4% 7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) Archived 2018-09-19 at the Wayback Machine September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 49% 48% – 0% 3%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 51% 40% – 1% 8%
801 RV ± 3.5% 49% 39% – 1% 10%
Gravis Marketing September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 48% 44% – – 9%
Data Orbital Archived 2018-09-11 at the Wayback Machine September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 49% 41% – 2%[72] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) August 30–31, 2018 554 ± 4.2% 44% 43% – – 13%
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 41% 42% – – 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 735 ± 4.0% 42% 43% – – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) June 7–8, 2017 1,020 ± 3.1% 42% 44% – – 14%
Hypothetical polling
with Steve Farley
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Ducey (R) 		Steve
Farley (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 42% 39% 19%
GQR Research (D-Farley) February 23 – March 5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 44% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 735 ± 4.0% 42% 39% 19%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) June 7–8, 2017 1,020 ± 3.1% 42% 40% 18%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Ducey (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Morning Consult Archived 2018-07-16 at the Wayback Machine June 29 – July 9, 2018 1,641 ± 2.0% 34% 41% 25%
with Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Ducey (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 13–15, 2016 896 ± 3.3% 43% 36% 21%

Results

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Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018[73]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 1,330,863 56.00% +2.56%
Democratic David Garcia 994,341 41.84% +0.22%
Green Angel Torres 50,962 2.14% N/A
Write-in 275 0.01% -0.10%
Total votes 2,376,441 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By county

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County David Garcia
Democratic 		Doug Ducey
Republican 		Angel Torres
Green 		Margin Total

votes

# % # % # % # %
Apache 14,955 59.72% 9,175 36.64% 912 3.64% 5,780 23.08% 25,042
Cochise 14,576 32.10% 29,638 65.26% 1,201 2.64% -15,062 -33.17% 45,415
Coconino 30,712 55.91% 22,778 41.47% 1,440 2.62% 7,934 14.44% 54,930
Gila 5,623 27.38% 14,444 70.34% 468 2.28% -8,821 -42.96% 20,535
Graham 2,569 24.19% 7,776 73.21% 276 2.60% -5,207 -49.03% 10,621
Greenlee 832 32.64% 1,637 64.22% 80 3.14% -805 -31.58% 2,549
La Paz 1,122 21.99% 3,852 75.49% 129 2.53% -2,730 -53.50% 5,103
Maricopa 603,055 42.09% 800,210 55.85% 29,495 2.06% -197,155 -13.76% 1,432,760
Mohave 13,580 18.97% 56,682 79.18% 1,325 1.85% -43,102 -60.21% 71,587
Navajo 13,646 37.30% 21,880 59.81% 1,055 2.88% -8,234 -22.51% 36,581
Pima 195,227 50.25% 184,621 47.52% 8,678 2.23% 10,606 2.73% 388,526
Pinal 38,801 33.21% 75,272 64.42% 2,767 2.37% -36,471 -31.21% 116,840
Santa Cruz 8,407 62.46% 4,792 35.60% 261 1.94% 3,615 26.86% 13,460
Yavapai 32,159 29.68% 74,148 68.44% 2,029 1.87% -41,989 -38.76% 108,336
Yuma 19,077 43.47% 23,958 54.60% 846 1.93% -4,881 -11.12%% 43,881
Total 994,341 41.8% 1,330,863 56.0% 50,962 2.1% 336,522 14.2% 2,376,166

By congressional district

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Ducey won six of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[74]

District David Garcia
Democratic 		Doug Ducey
Republican 		Representative
1st 43.1% 54.3% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 46.1% 51.6% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 57.7% 35.7% Raúl Grijalva
4th 25.1% 72.9% Paul Gosar
5th 34.0% 64.0% Andy Biggs
6th 38.2% 60.1% David Schweikert
7th 67.3% 29.6% Ruben Gallego
8th 33.2% 64.6% Debbie Lesko
9th 52.2% 45.5% Greg Stanton

Voter demographics

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Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Garcia Ducey No
answer 		% of
voters
Gender
Men 40 58 2 47
Women 43 55 2 53
Age
18–24 years old N/A N/A N/A 5
25–29 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
30–39 years old 45 52 3 17
40–49 years old 43 55 2 16
50–64 years old 37 61 2 29
65 and older 40 59 1 29
Race
White 37 62 1 75
Black N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino 56 44 N/A 19
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 1
Race and gender
White men 34 64 2 34
White women 39 60 1 41
Black men N/A N/A N/A 1
Black women N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino men 53 46 1 9
Latina women 58 42 N/A 10
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 32 67 1 25
Some college education 40 58 2 28
Associate degree 38 59 3 10
Bachelor's degree 46 51 3 23
Advanced degree 59 40 1 14
Education and race
White college graduates 48 49 3 27
White no college degree 30 69 1 38
Non-white college graduates 51 47 2 9
Non-white no college degree 61 38 1 16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 50 49 1 15
White women without college degrees 33 66 1 26
White men with college degrees 46 49 5 12
White men without college degrees 28 72 N/A 21
Non-whites 58 40 2 25
Military service
Veteran 33 65 2 14
Non-veteran 45 54 1 86
Income
Under $30,000 36 62 2 15
$30,000-$49,999 54 45 1 19
$50,000-$99,999 46 52 2 33
$100,000-$199,999 31 67 2 24
Over $200,000 28 72 N/A 9
Party ID
Democrats 85 14 1 31
Republicans 5 95 N/A 38
Independents 45 52 3 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 77 20 3 14
Democratic women 91 9 N/A 17
Republican men 5 95 N/A 15
Republican women 4 96 N/A 23
Independent men 42 56 2 18
Independent women 48 47 5 13
Ideology
Liberals 83 16 1 22
Moderates 57 41 2 38
Conservatives 4 95 1 40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 51 45 4 15
No 41 58 1 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 64 33 3 42
Immigration 8 91 1 31
Economy 38 60 2 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 7
Area type
Urban 52 46 2 43
Suburban 34 64 2 51
Rural N/A N/A N/A 5
Source: CNN[75]

References

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  30. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona is doing a great job. It would be really nice to show your support tomorrow by voting for him in Tuesdays Primary. Doug is strong on Crime, the Border, and our Second Amendment. Loves our Military & our Vets. He has my full and complete Endorsement". Twitter.
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  72. ^ Barry Hess (L) with 2%
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edit
Official campaign websites
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