AtlasIntel is a market research and data analysis company headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. It was founded by Romanian-born Andrei Roman and his husband, Thiago Costa.[1] AtlasIntel conducts public and private polling in South America, North America, and Europe.[2]
| Industry | |
|---|---|
| Founder | Andrei Roman |
| Headquarters | , |
Area served | North America South America Europe |
Key people | Andrei Roman CEO |
| Website | www |
AtlasIntel has a reputation for accurate political polling, being ranked as the most accurate pollster of the 2020 United States presidential election and accurately predicting electoral results in various Latin American countries. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks AtlasIntel at 2.7 out of 3 stars, based on its historical accuracy and disclosure of methodology.[2][3][4]
South America
editAtlasIntel's polling had the most accurate results among pollsters in the 2019 Argentine general election. It also correctly predicted the rejection of the 2022 Chilean constitutional referendum and the election of Gustavo Petro in the 2022 Colombian presidential election.[1][2]
AtlasIntel underestimated the vote share of Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of voting in the 2022 Brazilian general election, but to a lesser extent than other major pollsters. Atlas predicted a 9 point margin between Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva, with the first round outcome being a 5 point margin.[1][5]
AtlasIntel routinely conducts polling on political attitudes in Brazil. CEO Andrei Roman expressed concern over recent trends that showed increased distrust in the electoral process, citing findings like a 2022 post-election poll showing that over 38% of Brazilians believing that Bolsonaro was the rightful winner of the 2022 election.[6]
United States
editAccording to an analysis by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 United States presidential election, with an average error of 2.2 points.[3]
AtlasIntel polling for the 2024 United States presidential election predicted a Republican victory, with polling conducted just prior to the election showing Republican candidate Donald Trump winning all swing states against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. It also found that Trump would narrowly win the popular vote.[7][8]
Polling methodology
editAtlasIntel utilizes web-based polling and conducts sampling through its proprietary "Random Digital Recruitment".[8] Poll respondents are recruited through the geolocated targeting of web browsing users. AtlasIntel polls seek to identify patterns in variable non-response rates during sampling and adjust accordingly to mitigate nonresponse bias. AtlasIntel conducts poststratification of its samples with the variables of gender, age, education, income, region, and prior electoral behavior.[9]
References
edit- ^ a b c "The future of Brazilian polling after recent mistakes". Brazilian Report. 21 October 2022.
- ^ a b c "AtlasIntel". Roper Center.
- ^ a b "The Death Of Polling Is Greatly Exaggerated". FiveThirtyEight. March 25, 2021.
- ^ "538's Pollster Ratings". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
- ^ "Brazil polling firms among big losers in first-round election". Reuters. 6 October 2022.
- ^ "Cenário político no Brasil tende a se aproximar cada vez mais do americano, diz CEO da Atlas". CNN Brasil. November 11, 2022.
- ^ "'Shocking is an understatement': Pollsters split on US election result". The Daily Telegraph (Sydney). 3 November 2024.
- ^ a b "US Presidential Election 2024" (PDF). Atlas Intel. 2 November 2024.
- ^ "US Midterm Elections 2022" (PDF). Atlas Intel. 7 November 2022.