A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Justine Keay.[1]
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered | 73,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 90.38%  3.71 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate.[2]
The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.
Background
editDue to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:
A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries, as redistributed boundaries do not come into effect until the subsequent federal election.[5][6]
Key dates
editKey dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]
- Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
- Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
- Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
- Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
- Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
- Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
- Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
- Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
- Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs
Candidates
edit
| Candidates (8) in ballot paper order[8] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
| Greens | Jarrod Edwards | Indigenous land management supervisor.[9] | |
| SFF | Brett Neal | Farmer.[10] | |
| Independent | Donna Gibbons | Registered nurse and small business owner.[8] | |
| Liberal Democrats | Joshua Boag | Sheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election.[8] | |
| Liberal | Brett Whiteley | One-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election.[11] | |
| Independent | Craig Garland | Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election.[12] | |
| People | Bruno Strangio | Has managed numerous real estate and construction enterprises.[8] | |
| Labor | Justine Keay | Previous MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election.[13] | |
Polling
edit| Date | Firm | Commissioned by | Sample | MoE | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | GRN | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||||
| 24−26 July 2018 | Newspoll | The Australian[14] | 1002 | ±3.1% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 12% | 51% | 49% | |
| 19 July 2018 | ReachTEL | Aus. Forest Products Assoc.[15][16] | 810 | ±3.4% | 36.0% | 42.7% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 52% | 48% | |
| 2 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Sky News[17] | >800 | ±3.4% | 33% | 47% | 6% | 14% | 46% | 54% | |
| 2016 election | 40.0% | 41.5% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 52.2% | 47.8% | |||||
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Brett Whiteley | 24,645 | 39.26 | −2.24 | |
| Labor | Justine Keay | 23,218 | 36.98 | −3.07 | |
| Independent | Craig Garland | 6,633 | 10.57 | +10.57 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Brett Neal | 2,984 | 4.75 | +4.75 | |
| Greens | Jarrod Edwards | 2,518 | 4.01 | −2.73 | |
| Independent | Donna Gibbons | 1,533 | 2.44 | +2.44 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Joshua Boag | 828 | 1.32 | −0.81 | |
| People's Party | Bruno Strangio | 421 | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Total formal votes | 62,780 | 94.29 | −0.48 | ||
| Informal votes | 3,804 | 5.71 | +0.48 | ||
| Turnout | 66,584 | 90.38 | −3.71 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| Labor | Justine Keay | 32,842 | 52.31 | +0.11 | |
| Liberal | Brett Whiteley | 29,938 | 47.69 | −0.11 | |
| Labor hold | Swing | +0.11 | |||
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ a b Yaxley, Louise (9 May 2018). "Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling". ABC News.
- ^ Green, Antony. "July 2018 Federal By-elections". ABC News.
- ^ "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election". ABC News. 2 May 2018.
- ^ Yaxley, Louise (24 May 2018). "Date set for by-elections in Perth, Fremantle, Mayo, Longman and Braddon". ABC News. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
- ^ "2018 Braddon by-election - postal voting". AEC. Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
- ^ "Tasmanian federal redistribution [2016]". AEC. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
- ^ "2018 Braddon by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018.
- ^ a b c d Green, Antony. "2018 Braddon by-election guide". ABC News.
- ^ Ford, Sean (8 June 2018). "Greens' Braddon candidate Jarrod Edwards wants big Newstart increase". The Advocate. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
- ^ "Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party announce Braddon by-election candidate". Tasmania Talks. Grant Broadcasters. 18 June 2018. Archived from the original on 18 June 2018. Retrieved 18 June 2018.
- ^ "Liberals name Braddon by-election runner". SBS News. 12 May 2018.
- ^ "Fishing identity enters race for by-election seat". The Mercury. News Corp Australia. 2 July 2018. Retrieved 2 July 2018.
- ^ Norman, Jane (10 May 2018). "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money". ABC News.
- ^ Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon, 28 July 2018, retrieved 28 July 2018
- ^ Labor's Justine Keay best placed in close Braddon race, new poll suggests, 21 July 2018, retrieved 22 July 2018
- ^ Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018
- ^ ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman, 3 June 2018, retrieved 3 June 2018
- ^ 2018 Braddon by-election results: AEC
- ^ 2018 Braddon by-election results: ABC
External links
edit- 2018 Braddon by-election website: Australian Electoral Commission
- 2018 Braddon by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
- 2018 Braddon by-election guide: The Poll Bludger
- 2018 Braddon by-election guide: The Tally Room
- By-elections aplenty: The Poll Bludger 10 May 2018
- Super Saturday July 28: The Poll Bludger 24 May 2018