Submission declined on 23 August 2024 by Utopes (talk).
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Comment: 338canada.com is not a secondary reliable source, and should not be used for ~ >50% of references here (Refs 3 and 5 are the same). Coverage of the subject should be specific, and significant, from sources whom are both secondary and reliable. Utopes (talk / cont) 21:43, 23 August 2024 (UTC)
338Canada, along its French-language sister site Qc125, is an independently-owned Canadian website revolved around politics and political projections created by Montreal columnist and professor Philippe J. Fournier in 2017.[1]
Type of site | Political analysis |
|---|---|
| Founded | 2017 |
| Created by | Philippe J. Fournier |
| URL | English: https://338canada.com/ French: https://qc125.com/canada/ |
Similar to FiveThirtyEight, the site gets its name from the 338 seats in the Canadian Parliament after the 2015 federal election and before the upcoming federal election will take place. The site is best known for its projections of federal and provincial Canadian elections, but also has sections dedicated to the presidential elections of the United States and France, alongside sections detailing the mayoral elections of Toronto and Montreal.
Methodology
edit338Canada's model uses a largely proportional swing model with regional adjustments. The model also uses publicly available demographic data from the most recent census, such as languages most spoken at home, age distribution, income, population density and education levels. 338Canada weighs polls by their sample sizes and field dates.[1] Pollsters are also allocated ratings determined by how accurate they have been in predicting outcomes of past elections; the higher their rating, the more weight on the model they are given.[2] The federal projections are updated every week, while everything else is updated periodically when enough data has released.
Accuracy
editFournier has received criticism over the years from people who claim he is either biased or favours a given party.[3] Despite this, 338Canada has predicted the winner in 89.9% of all electoral districts it has covered so far, while only 4.2% of its predictions have been both wrong and outside of the margin of error.[4]
Recognition
editAs the only major website which aggregates Canadian polling, 338Canada has received attention from media outlets and discussion communities. Fournier has contributed to Maclean's, Politico, L'actualitie, and the election night overage of Radio-Canada.[5][6][7]
- ^ a b "About 338Canada". 338canada.com. Retrieved 2024-08-09.
- ^ "Ratings of Canadian pollsters | 338Canada". 338canada.com. Retrieved 2024-08-23.
- ^ Branswell, Brenda (2021-03-28). "Astrophysicist is Canada's rising star in election forecasting". McGill News. Retrieved 2024-08-23.
- ^ Fournier, Philippe. "The Record So Far". 338Canada.
- ^ Branswell, Brenda (2021-03-28). "Astrophysicist is Canada's rising star in election forecasting". McGill News. Retrieved 2024-08-23.
- ^ "Philippe J. Fournier". Politico.
- ^ "338Canada". Maclean's.
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