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2022 Victorian state election

(Redirected from Draft:Post-election pendulum for the 2022 Victorian state election)

The 2022 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) were up for election at the time the writs were issued, however the election in the district of Narracan was deferred due to the death of a candidate.

2022 Victorian state election
← 2018 26 November 2022[a] 2026 →
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Daniel Andrews Matthew Guy Samantha Ratnam
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 3 December 2010 7 September 2021 12 October 2017
Leader's seat Mulgrave Bulleen MLC for Northern
Metropolitan
Last election 55 seats 27 seats 3 seats
Seats before 55 27 3
Seats won 56 28 4
Seat change Increase 1 Increase 1 Increase 1
First preference vote 1,339,496 1,260,100 420,201
Percentage 36.66% 34.48% 11.50%
Swing Decrease 6.20 Decrease 0.71 Increase 0.79
TPP 55.00% 45.00%
TPP swing Decrease 2.30 Increase 2.30
Premier before election

Daniel Andrews
Labor

Premier after election

Daniel Andrews
Labor

Despite a reduction in their primary and two-party-preferred vote, Labor was re-elected in a second consecutive landslide, winning 56 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly, a net increase of one seat from the previous election in 2018. This was the sixth time that a Labor government was re-elected in Victoria, and it was Victorian Labor's second-best seat count at a state election. The Liberal/National Coalition made a net gain of one seat for an overall total of 28 seats: the Liberal Party won 19 seats, a net decrease of two from the previous election, while the Nationals won 9 seats, a net increase of three. The Greens won 4 seats, a net increase of one seat. All incumbent independents failed to retain their seats.

In the Legislative Council, Labor won 15 seats, six short of a majority, and the Coalition won 14 seats. On the crossbench, the Greens won 4 seats, Legalise Cannabis won 2 seats, and one seat each was won by Animal Justice, One Nation, Democratic Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

Following the election, on 5 December 2022, the Third Andrews ministry was sworn in by the Governor. The new government was little-changed following a significant reshuffle earlier in 2022. The following week the Liberal Party elected John Pesutto leader of the party and Opposition Leader in the new parliament, after Guy had earlier stepped down from the position.

The election in the district of Narracan was deferred to 28 January 2023 due to the death of the National Party candidate Shaun Gilchrist on 21 November, five days before the scheduled election. Labor and the National Party did not contest the supplementary election.

For the election (including the supplementary), Victoria had compulsory voting and used majoritarian preferential voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable voting (STV) along with a group voting ticket (GVT) in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council had 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, was 16.7% (one-sixth) of the valid votes cast in that district.

The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), an independent body answerable to parliament.

Background

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Date

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Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November. This means that the date for the election was set for 26 November 2022. This could change only if Parliament had been dissolved unexpectedly beforehand.[2][3]

Previous election and parliament

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See also: Results of the 2018 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly); Members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, 2018–2022; and Post-election pendulum for the 2018 Victorian state election
See also: Results of the 2018 Victorian state election (Legislative Council) and Members of the Victorian Legislative Council, 2018–2022

The Daniel Andrews-led Labor government was returned to power after one term in opposition by winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2014 state election. The Labor party was decisively re-elected at the 2018 state election with a 5.3% two-party preferred swing, winning 55 seats in the Assembly. This was equal to Victorian Labor's second-best seat count ever at a state election. The Liberal/National Coalition dropped to 27 seats, the Greens won 3 seats and independents won the remaining 3 seats. There were no by-elections for the Assembly in the 59th parliament and the Assembly's composition was otherwise unchanged.

In the Legislative Council, the Labor party won 18 of the 40 seats, the Coalition 11 and the remaining seats were won by an array of minor parties. During the term, two Labor MLC's left the party to sit as independents; (Adem Somyurek in June 2020 and Kaushaliya Vaghela in March 2022) while one Liberal MLC (Bernie Finn) was expelled from the party and joined the Democratic Labour Party in June 2022. This left the government with 16 seats in the Legislative Council, and opposition with 10, by the time of the election.

Daniel Andrews and the Labor government were seeking a third four-year term, something only John Cain Jr and Steve Bracks have previously achieved for Labor. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy stood down as Liberal leader several days after the party's poor result at the 2018 election and was replaced by Michael O'Brien. O'Brien's leadership was challenged twice in 2021, the second time resulting in O'Brien being replaced by Guy in a party room vote and Guy returning to the position.[4]

Electoral system

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Victorian state elections are conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC). Though Victoria has compulsory voting, at the 2018 election the voter turnout was just over 90%. Victoria uses instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the partially proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council presently has 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, is 16.7% (one-sixth plus 1). Victoria is the only jurisdiction in Australia, at a state or federal level, that retains group voting tickets for the election of its upper house, resulting in preferences of voters voting "above-the-line" being transferred by inter-party agreements. Western Australia, the only other state to employ the system, abolished group voting tickets after the 2021 state election.[5]

Redistribution

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New electoral district boundaries, compared to those created in the 2014 redistribution, coloured by party vote in the 2018 state election. Lighter shades indicate a notional change in party hold as a result of redistribution, using electoral pendulum by the VEC.[6]

The Electoral Boundaries Commission (EBC) of the Victorian Electoral Commission conducted a redistribution of electoral boundaries as there had been two general elections since the last redistribution. The previous redistribution took place prior to the 2014 election, and the new one was conducted in October 2021. According to commentators, Victoria's "booming population" would see new districts created in outer-suburban and inner-city areas, at the expense of middle-suburban areas.[7] At the 2018 election the voter enrollment in individual districts ranged from 61,814 in Cranbourne[8] to 38,937 in Mount Waverley.[9]

On 30 June 2021, the EBC released draft boundaries for the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the 2022 election. The draft boundaries saw the creation of new electorates and the abolition of current ones. The EBC's final report was released on 28 October 2021.

Changes to electorates of the Legislative Assembly
Electorates abolished Electorates created
Altona Point Cook
Buninyong Eureka
Burwood Ashwood
Ferntree Gully abolished
Forest Hill Glen Waverley
Mount Waverley
Gembrook Berwick
Pakenham
Keysborough abolished
new seat Laverton
Yuroke Greenvale
Kalkallo

Registered parties

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See also: List of political parties in Australia

There were 23 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) on 31 October 2022:[10]

A further 5 applications to register were rejected by the VEC by parties that failed to meet the statutory threshold of 500 registered members: the Australian Democrats,[14] Australian Federation, Fusion, Independence and Indigenous-Aboriginal parties.[15]

In addition, three parties sought to register but later withdrew. Family First Victoria, unrelated to the party of the same name that contested the 2022 South Australian state election, announced it would withdraw its registration on 12 August.[16] On 13 August, the Victorians Party—which had been formally registered by the VEC and had announced a series of candidates―announced it would not contest the election and was later deregistered by the VEC.[17] On 29 September, the Legalise Marijuana Party confirmed it would withdraw after its application was challenged by the Legalise Cannabis Party.[18]

Eight unregistered parties opted to endorse at least one independent candidate:

Candidates and retiring MPs

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See also: Candidates of the 2022 Victorian state election

A record 740 candidates nominated to contest the 88 Legislative Assembly seats at the Victorian election on 26 November, well up on the previous record of 543 candidates in 2014 and the 507 in 2018. The 454 candidates for the Legislative Council is the highest number of upper house candidates in a Victorian election, up from 380 in 2018.[25]

The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2022 election:

Labor

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Liberal

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National

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Independent

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Campaign and controversies

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In the lead-up to the state election, Labor Premier Daniel Andrews committed to reviving the State Electricity Commission (SEC) if re-elected.[46][47][48] The government would have a 51% shareholding in the new SEC.[49] Andrews committed to amending the state's constitution to protect public ownership of the revived SEC if re-elected, to make it harder, although not impossible, for it to be privatised again in the future.[50][51] Re-privatising the commission after such legislation would require a "special majority" of 60% of both the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council,[52] a situation which already exists for any potential privatisation of water services in Victoria under the Constitution of Victoria.[53]

Matthew Guy and the Liberal Party began their election campaign on 2 November with a press conference that saw Guy unveil their "Ditch Dan" vehicle, a 1970s-era ambulance emblazoned with anti-Andrews slogans & graphics. The vehicle having the "Ambulance" designation above the drivers area caused the head of the Victorian Ambulance Union, Danny Hill, to question the legality of the vehicle as the state's Ambulance Services Act makes it an offence to use the word "ambulance" on any vehicle that is not owned or operated by an ambulance service without written authority of the Department of Health. The ambulance was used to tie into Guy's promise regarding the building of new hospitals and recruiting 40,000 new medical staff.[54] Guy also promised to axe stamp duty for first home buyers on properties up to $1 million for 12 months.

On 8 November, Guy defended his party advertising attacking Dan Andrews for being a "prick", and the use of footage from anti-lockdown protests in Melbourne where protestors urinated on the Shrine of Remembrance and attacked police.[55][56]

On 10 November, Guy downplayed his deputy David Southwick using two staffers employed by Southwick as actors in campaign ads without disclosing they are members of his campaign staff. When Guy was asked if the use of paid staffers in campaign ads was misleading, Guy replied by endorsing Southwick and stating that "it was not misleading" regardless of the lack of a disclaimer.[57][58]

On 16 November, Australian Values Party leader Heston Russell leaked a video to the Herald Sun of him to talking to Glenn Druery about a potential preference deal, declaring that the AVP felt the co-ordination of the group voting ticket system used by Druery was immoral and needed to be exposed.[59] This led to calls for the abolition of the group voting ticket, which Matthew Guy has said he would support and asked Andrews to commit to scrapping it, regardless of the election result. Andrews said he would wait until after the previously scheduled electoral reform review, due after the election, before making any changes.[60]

On 17 November, the Victorian Electoral Commission announced that it had referred Guy and his former chief of staff to the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission after it had exhausted attempts to investigate an alleged violation of political donation disclosure laws.[61] The investigation followed a leak of documents showing a proposed contract requiring a Liberal donor to pay a total of $125,000 to the chief of staff's private marketing firm, potentially in breach of the $4,210 limit on donations from individuals or organisations.[62] In a statement outlining the referral, the Victorian electoral commissioner stressed that the VEC had not "received full co-operation from those connected to its investigation". However, Guy denied allegations of wrongdoing and insisted that he had provided material to the VEC.[63] The following day, the Liberals accused the VEC of deliberate electoral interference and an "intent to damage the Liberal Party in the State Election" in a cease and desist letter by the party's lawyers.[64]

On 19 November, the Liberal Party disendorsed Renee Heath, the first ranked candidate for the Liberal ticket in the Eastern Victoria Region of the upper house Victorian Legislative Council, from the party after her conservative religious views, including support for conversion therapy, were bought to light by a newspaper investigation. The decision came too late for Heath to be disendorsed by the party, and her position on the ticket made it an effective certainty that she will win a position in Parliament. Questions were raised over how much Guy and the Liberal Party knew of her views, and the accusations of Entryism made regarding Heath and her family by Liberal member Cathrine Burnett-Wake in her final address to Parliament after Heath defeated her for pre-selection.[65][66]

Also on 19 November, Angry Victorians candidate and state MP Catherine Cumming declared at an anti-lockdown rally that she wished for Daniel Andrews to be turned into a "red mist". These comments were denounced by both Andrews and Matthew Guy, and led to the Victoria Police opening an investigation into Cumming for alleged promotion of violence.[67][68]

On 20 November, The Age reported that the Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, Timothy Dragan, opposed all recognition of Aboriginal people, said that he would vote against any legislation aimed at tackling climate change, would support a total ban on abortion, and that he called Liberal MP Brad Battin, the member for Berwick, a "prick".[69]

Richmond Labor candidate Lauren O'Dwyer had some controversies relating to her Aboriginal heritage claim disputed by some.[70]

On 21 November, Daniel Andrews claimed that there were neo-Nazi candidates running in the election and being recommended preferences on how to vote cards by the Liberal Party.[71][72]

The only state leaders debate between Andrews and Guy was held on 22 November on Sky News Australia and Sky News Regional. Andrews was declared the winner, with 38% of the vote.[73]

Labor accused a 'Greens-dominated' Darebin Council of removing Labor billboards in the seat of Northcote.[74][75]

The campaign was notable for the level of 'nastiness', mainly fuelled by fringe right-wing parties and candidates opposed to COVID measures taken by the government.[76]

Polling

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Graphical summary

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Primary vote (2022)
Two-party-preferred
Preferred Premier
Andrews approval rating
Opposition Leaders approval rating

Voting intention

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Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
21 – 24 November 2022 Newspoll[77] 38% 35%* 12% 15% 54.5% 45.5%
22 – 23 November 2022 Roy Morgan[78] 38% 32.5%* 12.5% 17%[b] 55% 45%
16 – 21 November 2022 Resolve Strategic[79][c] 36.2% 35.8%* 10.1% 17.9% 52.7% 47.3%
9 – 10 November 2022 Roy Morgan[80] 40% 25.5% 3.5% 11.5% 19.5%[d] 57% 43%
3 – 6 November 2022 Freshwater Strategy[81] 37% 34%* 14% 15% 56% 44%
31 October – 6 November 2022 RedBridge[82] 38% 38%* 14% 11% 53.5% 46.5%
28 October – 6 November 2022 Lonergan Research [83] 42% 29%* 19% 11% — —
31 October – 3 November 2022 Newspoll[84] 37% 37%* 13% 13% 54% 46%
23 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[85][e] 38% 31%* 12% 18% — —
18 October 2022 Roy Morgan[86] 42% 26% 2% 14.5% 15.5%[f] 60.5% 39.5%
18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[87][e] 42% 28%* 12% 18% — —
11 – 13 September 2022 Roy Morgan[88] 36.5% 29.5%* 14% 20.5%[g] 58% 42%
31 August – 7 September 2022 Essential[89] 35.3% 32.2%* 10.2% — 56%[90] 44%[90]
22 – 25 August 2022 Newspoll[91] 41% 36%* 13% 10% 56% 44%
11 – 13 August 2022 Roy Morgan[92] 40.5% 27.5%* 14% 18%[h] 60.5% 39.5%
30 June – 2 July 2022 Roy Morgan[93] 43.5% 29.5% 2.5% 12% 15%[i] 59.5% 40.5%
3 April 2022 Resolve Strategic[94][e] 37% 33%* 10% 19% — —
15 January 2022 Resolve Strategic[95][e] 41% 31%* 11% 17% — —
24 November 2021 Roy Morgan[96] 45% 27% 2% 10.5% 15.5%[j] 59.5% 40.5%
11 – 17 November 2021 Newspoll[97] 44% 36%* 11% 9% 58% 42%
12 November 2021 Roy Morgan[98] 43% 28% 3% 11% 15%[k] 58% 42%
24 October 2021 Resolve Strategic[99][e] 38% 34%* 10% 18% — —
7 September 2021 Matthew Guy becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
22 August 2021 Resolve Strategic[100][e] 40% 35%* 10% 15% — —
12 – 15 June 2021 RedBridge[101][102] 37% 38% 3% 12% 10% 52.4% 47.6%
13 June 2021 Resolve Strategic[103][e] 37% 36%* 9% 17% — —
9 – 10 November 2020 Roy Morgan[104] 45% 30.5% 4% 11% 9.5% 58.5% 41.5%
29 October – 4 November 2020 YouGov[105] 44% 40%* 11% 5% 55% 45%
12 – 13 October 2020 Roy Morgan[106] 40% 36% 4% 9% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
28 – 29 September 2020 Roy Morgan[107] 39% 37% 2.5% 10% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
15 – 17 September 2020 Roy Morgan[108] 37% 35% 3.5% 12% 8.5% 51.5% 48.5%
6 December 2018 Michael O'Brien becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
24 November 2018 election 42.9% 30.4% 4.8% 10.7% 11.2% 57.3% 42.7%
23 November 2018 Newspoll[109] 41% 40%* 11% 8% 53.5% 46.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[110]

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

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Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Andrews Guy
Andrews Guy Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
21 – 24 November 2022 Newspoll[77] 51% 35% 46% 48% 31% 56%
16 – 21 November 2022 Resolve Strategic[79] 48% 34% N/A
9 – 10 November 2022 Roy Morgan[92] 65.5% 34.5% 58.5% 41.5% N/A
3 – 6 November 2022 Freshwater Strategy[81] 40% 28% 39% 48% 32% 48%
31 October – 3 November 2022 Newspoll[84] 52% 33% 51% 44% 32% 52%
28 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[85] 49% 29% N/A
18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[87] 46% 28% N/A
22 – 25 August 2022 Newspoll[91] 51% 34% 54% 41% 32% 49%
11 – 13 August 2022 Roy Morgan[92] 66% 34% 62.5% 37.5% N/A
30 June – 2 July 2022 Roy Morgan[93] 64.5% 35.5% 63.5% 36.5% N/A
3 April 2022 Resolve Strategic[94] 48% 31% N/A
15 January 2022 Resolve Strategic[95] 47% 30% N/A
24 November 2021 Roy Morgan[96] N/A 63.5% 36.5% N/A
17 November 2021 Newspoll[97] 54% 33% 56% 42% 34% 42%
11 November 2021 Roy Morgan[98] N/A 60.5% 39.5% N/A
24 October 2021 Resolve Strategic[99] 45% 32% N/A
20 – 24 October 2021 Essential[111] not asked 52% 40% not asked
15 – 18 September 2021 Newspoll[112] not asked 64% 35% not asked
7 September 2021 Guy replaces O'Brien Andrews O'Brien Andrews O'Brien
22 August 2021 Resolve Strategic[100] 50% 24% N/A
12 – 15 June 2021 RedBridge[101][102] 42.4% 23.1% 49.7% 46.5% 36.1% 44%
13 June 2021 Resolve Strategic[103] 49% 23% 42% 32% 14% 22%
11 – 16 November 2020 Essential[113] not asked 65% 28% not asked
9 – 10 November 2020 Roy Morgan[104] not asked 71% 29% not asked
29 October – 4 November 2020 YouGov[105] not asked 65% 32% 26% 53%
28 October – 2 November 2020 Essential[114] not asked 61% 33% not asked
19 – 21 October 2020 Ipsos[115] 53% 18% 52% 33% 15% 39%
14 – 19 October 2020 Essential[116] not asked 54% 40% not asked
12 – 13 October 2020 Roy Morgan[106] not asked 59% 41% not asked
29 – 30 September 2020 Roy Morgan[107] not asked 61% 39% not asked
16 – 19 September 2020 Newspoll[117] not asked 62% 35% not asked
8 – 9 September 2020 Roy Morgan[118] not asked 70% 30% not asked
15 – 18 July 2020 Newspoll[119] not asked 57% 37% not asked
24 – 28 June 2020 Newspoll[120] not asked 67% 27% not asked
21 – 26 April 2020 Newspoll[121] not asked 75% 17% not asked
6 December 2018 O'Brien replaces Guy Andrews Guy Andrews Guy
24 November 2018 election – – – – – –
24 – 28 October 2018 Newspoll[122] 45% 29% 45% 40% 31% 46%
22 – 24 October 2018 YouGov not asked 44% 35% 24% 42%
7 October 2018 ReachTEL[123] 51.3% 48.7% not asked
11 – 13 September 2018 YouGov[124] not asked 40% 42% 25% 44%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[110]

Newspaper endorsements

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Prior to the election, several newspapers around the country published editorials endorsing the party they believed should win. News Corp's Melbourne tabloid the Herald Sun, and its Sunday edition the Sunday Herald Sun endorsed the Coalition. News Corp's national masthead The Australian gave an endorsement to the Coalition. The company has been accused by several other media outlets of biased coverage against the Labor Party and Premier Daniel Andrews, with former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd describing their electoral coverage as "dog-whistling to conspiracy theorists".[125][126]

Nine Entertainment's national masthead the Australian Financial Review endorsed the Coalition, while Nine's Melbourne-based The Age endorsed Labor. Although the paper conceded that Andrews had become "arrogant", his party offered the better plan for the state.

Weekend editions

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Newspaper Owner Endorsement
Sunday Herald-Sun News Corp Coalition[127]
The Sunday Age Nine Entertainment No Endorsement given

Metropolitan dailies

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Newspaper Owner Endorsement
The Age Nine Entertainment Labor[128]
The Australian News Corp Coalition[129]
Australian Financial Review Nine Entertainment Coalition[130]
Herald Sun News Corp Coalition[131]

Online publications

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Newspaper Owner Endorsement
Guardian Australia Guardian Media Group No Endorsement given
Green Left Weekly Green Left Weekly No Endorsement given

Results

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Winning party by electorate.
 
Change in Two-Party-Preferred vote by electorate compared to 2018.

Legislative Assembly

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See also: Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly); Members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, 2022–2026; and Post-election pendulum for the 2022 Victorian state election
↓ 
56 4 9 19
ALP GRN NAT LIB
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)[132]
 
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,339,496 36.66  6.20 56  1
    Liberal 1,087,413 29.76  0.67 19   2
  National 172,687 4.73  0.04 9   3
Coalition total 1,260,100 34.48  0.71 28   1
  Greens 420,201 11.50  0.79 4   1
  Family First 111,478 3.05 New 0  
  Animal Justice 91,646 2.51  0.69 0  
  Freedom 64,066 1.75 New 0  
  Victorian Socialists 48,865 1.34  0.90 0  
  Democratic Labour 45,026 1.23  0.54 0  
  Liberal Democrats 14,116 0.39  0.27 0  
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 11,588 0.32  0.37 0  
  Reason 10,907 0.30  0.06 0  
  One Nation 10,323 0.28 New 0  
  Justice 7,927 0.22  0.04 0  
  Legalise Cannabis 5,838 0.16 New 0  
  New Democrats 4,874 0.13 New 0  
  Angry Victorians 3,037 0.08 New 0  
  Health Australia 862 0.02 New 0  
  Transport Matters 605 0.02  0.27 0  
  Companions and Pets 526 0.01 New 0  
  Independents 202,724 5.55  0.52 0   3
Total valid votes 3,654,205 94.46 – – –
Invalid/blank votes 214,410 5.54 – – –
Total 3,868,615 100 – 88  
Registered voters / Turnout 4,394,465 88.03 – – –
Two-party-preferred vote*
Labor 1,989,350 55.00 −2.30 56   1
Coalition 1,627,650 45.00 +2.30 28   1

* TPP vote total excludes the electoral district of Narracan, which was not contested by Labor. TPP votes are calculated based on the estimate provided by the ABC election computer overseen by Antony Green.[133]

Seats changing hands

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Members in italics did not re-contest their Legislative Assembly seats at this election.

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bass Liberal Notional[l] 0.7 –1.0 0.3 Jordan Crugnale Labor
Bayswater Liberal Notional[m] 0.6 –4.6 4.0 Jackson Taylor Labor
Glen Waverley Liberal Neil Angus 0.9 4.1 3.2 John Mullahy Labor
Hastings Liberal Neale Burgess 0.0 1.2 1.2 Paul Mercurio Labor
Hawthorn Labor John Kennedy 0.6 2.3 1.7 John Pesutto Liberal
Mildura Independent Ali Cupper 0.0 1.3 1.3 Jade Benham National
Morwell Independent Notional 4.0 –8.8 4.8 Martin Cameron National
Nepean Labor Chris Brayne 0.7 7.4 6.7 Sam Groth Liberal
Richmond Labor Richard Wynne 5.8 13.1 7.4 Gabrielle de Vietri Greens
Shepparton Independent Suzanna Sheed 5.3 10.4 5.1 Kim O'Keeffe National
 
Results of the 2022 election with held and gained seats

The statewide swing against Labor in the primary vote and two-party-preferred vote was mainly concentrated in safe Labor seats in western Melbourne, where Labor members of the Legislative Assembly were re-elected with reduced majorities. Conversely, there was a smaller swing towards Labor in more marginal seats in Melbourne's east.[134][135][136] Ultimately, the Labor Party lost the seats of Hawthorn and Nepean to the Liberal Party, as well as the seat of Richmond to the Greens, but won the seats of Glen Waverley and Hastings (the latter notionally almost tied following redistribution) from the Liberal Party.

The Labor-held seats of Bass and Bayswater, which were made notionally Liberal following redistribution, were retained by their Labor incumbents. The Liberal-held seat of Ripon, which was made notionally Labor following redistribution, was won by the Labor candidate. The independent seat of Morwell, which was made notionally Labor following redistribution, was won by the Nationals candidate.

No independent candidates were elected, with all incumbent independents defeated by the Nationals.

It is said by some experts that Labor's State Electricity Commission of Victoria policy had helped Labor win the election.[137][138]

District of Narracan supplementary election

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On 21 November, it was reported that the Nationals candidate for the district of Narracan, Shaun Gilchrist, died suddenly. Under electoral law, this means that the lower house election for Narracan has been declared as "failed" by the Victorian Electoral Commission.[139] A supplementary election was held for that seat on 28 January 2023.[1] The upper house election for that district (within the Eastern Victoria Region) was held as scheduled on 26 November.

Labor and the Nationals did not recontest the supplementary election. Animal Justice Party and Family First Victoria nominated new candidates for the supplementary election.[140] The Liberal party retained Narracan with a slightly increased margin.

Legislative Council

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See also: Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Council) and Members of the Victorian Legislative Council, 2022–2026
Legislative Council (STV/GVT) – (CV)[141][142]
 
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 1,238,710 33.01  6.21 15   3
    Liberal (metropolitan) 636,485 16.96  0.19 8   1
  Liberal/National joint ticket 468,289 12.48 +0.21
  Liberal (regional) 4   1
  National 2   1
Coalition total 1,104,774 29.44 +0.02 14   3
  Greens 387,190 10.32  1.07 4   3
  Legalise Cannabis 153,347 4.09 New 2   2
  Democratic Labour 131,600 3.51  1.41 1   1
  Liberal Democrats 99,054 2.64  0.14 1   1
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 76,742 2.05  0.97 1  
  One Nation 76,734 2.04 New 1   1
  Family First 75,283 2.01 New 0  
  Justice 57,381 1.53  2.22 0   3
  Animal Justice 56,819 1.51  0.96 1  
  Victorian Socialists 52,245 1.39  0.48 0  
  Reason 47,070 1.25  0.12 0   1
  Freedom 39,910 1.06 New 0  
  Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews 31,262 0.83 New 0  
  United Australia 31,043 0.83 New 0  
  Health Australia 21,694 0.58  0.21 0  
  Sustainable Australia 17,537 0.47  0.36 0   1
  Companions and Pets 16,464 0.44 New 0  
  Angry Victorians 14,896 0.40 New 0  
  Transport Matters 10,605 0.28  0.34 0   1
  New Democrats 7,743 0.21 New 0  
  Independents and ungrouped 4,303 0.11 +0.04 0  
Total valid votes 3,752,406 96.78 – – –
Invalid/blank votes 124,726 3.22 – – –
Total 3,877,132 100.00 – 40  
Registered voters / Turnout 4,394,465 88.23 – – –

The result in the Legislative Council meant the Labor Party and the left-leaning parties (namely the Greens, Legalise Cannabis, and Animal Justice) had a majority of seats in the chamber; 22 out of 40. After losing four out of five members via the group voting ticket system in the 2018 election, the Greens quadrupled their presence in the chamber. Notable results included the defeat of Reason Party leader Fiona Patten in the Northern Metropolitan region, defeated by former Labor minister and Democratic Labour Party candidate Adem Somyurek for the last position in the region, as well as the election of two Legalise Cannabis MPs to the parliament for the first time in the state's history. One Nation also elected its first state representative in Victoria.[143][144]

Legislative Council seats table

edit

Seat totals as noted by the Victorian Electoral Commission.[141]

Region Seats won
Eastern Victoria     S    
North-Eastern Metropolitan          
Northern Metropolitan          
Northern Victoria          
South-Eastern Metropolitan     C L  
Southern Metropolitan          
Western Metropolitan     C    
Western Victoria          

Party key:

  Labor
  Liberal
  Greens
  National
 C  Legalise Cannabis
  Democratic Labour
 L  Liberal Democrats
 S  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
  One Nation
  Animal Justice

Electoral pendulum

edit

The state underwent a periodic review of its electoral boundaries which was completed in October 2021.[145]

In August 2022, the Victorian Electoral Commission published a report with its own estimates of the results on the new electoral boundary margins.[6] In September 2022, Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) election analyst Antony Green released the seat classifications and new electoral pendulum used by the ABC, which are listed below.[146]

Pre-election pendulum

edit

Members in italics did not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they held or its replacement. However, Will Fowles, Brad Battin and Sarah Connolly contested a different seat to the one they held or its replacement. Lizzie Blandthorn moved to contest the Legislative Council. See the footnotes for details.

Extended content
Labor seats (56)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Hawthorn John Kennedy ALP 0.6%
Nepean Chris Brayne ALP 0.7%
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP 1.7% v GRN
Ashwood Will Fowles[n] ALP 2.0%
Pakenham Brad Battin (Lib)[o] ALP 2.2%
Ripon Louise Staley (Lib) ALP 2.8%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP 3.0%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP 3.1%
Ringwood Dustin Halse ALP 3.2%
Morwell Russell Northe (IND) ALP 4.0%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 5.0%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP 5.8% v GRN
Fairly safe
Monbulk James Merlino ALP 7.1%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 8.8%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP 9.1% v IND
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP 9.3%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP 9.6%
Safe
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 10.2%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 10.3%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP 10.4%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 10.4%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP 11.0%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP 11.4%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 11.4%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 12.0%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 12.1%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 12.3%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 12.5%
Point Cook Jill Hennessy ALP 12.8%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 13.1%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 13.4%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 13.4%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 14.5%
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP 14.9%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 15.8%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 15.8%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 16.0%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 16.2%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP 16.9%
Tarneit Sarah Connolly[p] ALP 17.9%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 18.3%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 18.6%
Lara John Eren ALP 19.1%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP 19.9%
Very safe
Kalkallo Ros Spence ALP 20.9%
Preston Robin Scott ALP 21.3% v GRN
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 22.0%
Greenvale New seat ALP 22.0%
Pascoe Vale Lizzie Blandthorn[q] ALP 22.3%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 23.1%
Laverton New seat ALP 23.4%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 24.9%
Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP 25.2%
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 25.3%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 27.4%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP 27.6%
Liberal/National seats (27)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 0.00%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 0.04%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB 0.4%
Brighton James Newbury LIB 0.5%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor (ALP) LIB 0.6%
Bass Jordan Crugnale (ALP) LIB 0.7%
Glen Waverley Neil Angus LIB 0.9%
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 1.0%
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 1.0%
Berwick New seat LIB 1.3%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB 1.8%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB 2.0%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 2.6% v IND
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB 3.2%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 3.8%
Kew Tim Smith LIB 4.7%
Mornington David Morris LIB 5.0%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 5.5%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 5.5%
Fairly safe
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 6.0%
Safe
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 10.0%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 12.1%
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT 14.2%
Euroa Steph Ryan NAT 15.8%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 17.6%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 21.1%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 24.0%
Crossbench seats (5)
Seat Member Party Margin
Mildura Ali Cupper IND 0.00% v NAT
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN 1.7% v ALP
Brunswick Tim Read GRN 2.0% v ALP
Shepparton Suzanna Sheed IND 5.3% v LIB
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN 8.2% v LIB

Post-election pendulum

edit
Extended content
Labor seats (56)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP 0.2% v GRN
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP 0.2%
Pakenham Emma Vulin ALP 0.4%
Hastings Paul Mercurio ALP 1.4%
Pascoe Vale Anthony Cianflone ALP 2.0% v GRN
Preston Nathan Lambert ALP 2.1% v GRN
Ripon Martha Haylett ALP 3.0%
Glen Waverley John Mullahy ALP 3.3%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP 4.2%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP 4.2% v GRN
Yan Yean Lauren Kathage ALP 4.3%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 4.6%
Fairly safe
Ashwood Matt Fregon ALP 6.2%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 6.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 6.7%
Greenvale Iwan Walters ALP 7.1%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP 7.2%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP 7.2%
Ringwood Will Fowles ALP 7.5%
Monbulk Daniela De Martino ALP 7.6%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 8.0%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 8.2%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP 8.3%
Point Cook Mathew Hilakari ALP 8.3%
Bellarine Alison Marchant ALP 8.5%
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 8.7%
Narre Warren North Belinda Wilson ALP 8.7%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 8.8%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP 9.0%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 9.0%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 9.5%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 9.6%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 9.8%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP 9.8%
Safe
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP 10.2%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 10.8% v IND
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 10.8%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP 10.9%
Albert Park Nina Taylor ALP 11.2%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 11.6%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP 11.9%
Tarneit Dylan Wight ALP 12.3%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 12.5%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 12.7%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 13.0%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP 13.4%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 13.5%
Kororoit Luba Grigorovitch ALP 14.5%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 14.6%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 14.7%
Broadmeadows Kathleen Matthews-Ward ALP 15.5%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 15.8%
Lara Ella George ALP 15.9%
Kalkallo Ros Spence ALP 16.5%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 18.3%
Laverton Sarah Connolly ALP 18.4%
Liberal/National seats (28)
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Mornington Chris Crewther LIB 0.7% v IND
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 0.9% v IND
Mildura Jade Benham NAT 1.2% v IND
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 1.4%
Hawthorn John Pesutto LIB 1.7%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB 1.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 2.1%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 3.7%
Kew Jess Wilson LIB 4.0%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 4.3%
Morwell Martin Cameron NAT 4.4%
Berwick Brad Battin LIB 4.7%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB 5.0%
Brighton James Newbury LIB 5.1%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB 5.4%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 5.9%
Fairly safe
Nepean Sam Groth LIB 6.4%
Shepparton Kim O'Keeffe NAT 6.8% v IND
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 7.0%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB 8.0%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 8.1%
Euroa Annabelle Cleeland NAT 9.9%
Safe
Narracan[r] Wayne Farnham LIB 13.0% v IND
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT 15.6%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 17.8%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 21.6%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 23.4%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 24.6%
Crossbench seats (4)
Seat Member Party Margin
Fairly safe
Richmond Gabrielle de Vietri GRN 7.3% v ALP
Safe
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN 10.2% v ALP
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN 12.0% v LIB
Brunswick Tim Read GRN 13.7% v ALP

Notes

edit
  1. ^ The election in the seat of Narracan was deferred to 28 January 2023.[1]
  2. ^ UAP 0.5%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 4.5%, Other parties 11.0%
  3. ^ TPP calculated from respondent nominated preferences and results to one decimal place provided pre-election by Resolve Strategic
  4. ^ UAP 0.5%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 4.5%, Other parties 13.5%
  5. ^ a b c d e f g TPP vote not calculated
  6. ^ One Nation 2%, UAP 1%, Liberal Democrats 1%, AJP 1%, SFF 0.5%, Justice 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis Australia 0.5%, "teal independents" 1%, other Independent 7%, Other parties 1%
  7. ^ One Nation 2%, Liberal Democrats 1.5%, AJP 1%, Justice 0.5%, SFF 0.5%, UAP 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis Australia 0.5%, Independent 6.5%, Other 7.5%
  8. ^ UAP 2%, Justice 1.5%, "teal independents" 5%, Other 9.5%
  9. ^ UAP 2%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 3%, Other 9%
  10. ^ UAP 4%, Justice 2%, Other 9.5%
  11. ^ UAP 3%, Justice 2%, Other 10%
  12. ^ Jordan Crugnale was elected as the MP for Bass at the 2018 Victorian state election for the Australian Labor Party. However, redistribution by the Victorian Electoral Commission has resulted in the district notionally Liberal.
  13. ^ Jackson Taylor was elected as the MP for Bayswater at the 2018 Victorian state election for the Australian Labor Party. However, redistribution by the Victorian Electoral Commission has resulted in the district notionally Liberal.
  14. ^ Will Fowles would contest Ringwood at the election.
  15. ^ Brad Battin would contest Berwick at the election.
  16. ^ Sarah Connolly would contest Laverton at the election.
  17. ^ Lizzie Blandthorn would contest the Western Metropolitan Region in the Legislative Council.
  18. ^ Due to the sudden death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the election in Narracan was deferred, and a supplementary election was instead held on 28 January 2023.

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