Draft:Seyed Yasser Jebraily

Seyed Yasser Jebraily
Chief of the Center for Strategic Evaluation and Monitoring of Macro-Policies of Iran in the Expediency Discernment Council
In office 2019–2024
Appointed by	Mohsen Rezaee, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr
Personal details
Born	(1984-12-02) December 2, 1984 Ardabil, Iran
Occupation	Politician
Website	www.jebraily.ir

Seyed Yasser Jebraily (born December,2 , 1984) is an Iranian academic, writer and politician. He served as the chief of the Center for Assessment of Implementing Macro-policies of Iran in Expediency Discernment Council. Jebraily was one of the drafters of Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi’s economic program in the 2021 Iranian presidential election, but ultimately did not join Raisi's cabinet.

Life and Career

Seyed Yasser Jebraily was born on December 2, 1984, in Fakhrabad village, a suburb of Meshkinshahr. His educational journey saw him attend exemplary government schools and later pursue higher education in Tehran, where he initially studied English Teaching at Shahid Rajaee Teacher Training University and later shifted to International Relations at the University of Tehran. He completed his master’s thesis on political economy and earned his Ph.D. in Political Thought with a dissertation on the Islamic Republic’s leadership selection mechanism from the perspective of religious democracy.

In 2005, Jebraily joined Kayhan newspaper at the age of 21, and later held key positions at Fars News Agency. During Ebrahim Raisi’s tenure as the custodian of Astan Quds Razavi, he founded the Economic Studies Center of the Razavi Economic Organization. He also served as the economic resistance advisor to the IRGC commander.

In 2019, he was appointed head of the Strategic Evaluation and Monitoring Center for the Implementation of General Policies in the Expediency Discernment Council. There, he developed a comprehensive surveillance and evaluation system and an evaluation model for policies.

On the eve of the 14th Iranian presidential election, some media outlets reported the possibility of Jebraily’s candidacy. However, he announced that he does not meet the minimum age requirement of 40 years for candidacy.

Jebraily has also served as a founding member of the Hikmat Policy Research and Strategic Studies Institute, a board member of the Javan newspaper, and president of the Economics Panel in the First National Event of Open Chairs at Islamic Azad University. He is married and has four children.

Economic Views

Jebraily has articulated a range of economic views that align closely with the principles of an internally strong economy, aiming for self-sufficiency and independence from external economic pressures.

The Role of State in Economy

Jebraily promotes the idea of “smart protectionism,” where the government should act as a facilitator and guide rather than a direct controller. He argues that the government should transit from ownership to oversight, creating an enabling environment for private enterprises to thrive. This approach emphasizes the government’s role in strategic planning and regulation rather than day-to-day economic activities. Jebraily is critical of both neoliberal approaches and fully state-controlled economic models. He suggests that Iran should pursue a middle path, similar to the model implemented in China, which combines elements of both public and private sector involvement. This middle path aims to harness the strengths of both sectors while mitigating their respective weaknesses. He advocates utilizing private sector incentives for national progress

One of Jebraily’s significant concerns has been the misinterpretation and misapplication of the Policies of Article 44 of the Iranian Constitution which is outlined by supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In an interview with the supreme leader's website, he has argued that the original intent of Article 44 Polices was not to eliminate the state from the economy, but to redefine the government’s role from that of owner to that of a planner, supporter and supervisor. However, in practice, it has been reduced to mere privatization without adequate regulatory and supervisory frameworks, leading to issues such as factory closures and lack of post-privatization oversight.

Participatory Economy

Jebraily has put forward a detailed proposition regarding the participation of people in the economy. According to him, the inherent motivation and intention among people to engage in economic activities is stifled due to a lack of proper frameworks and tools. He emphasizes the need for creating an alternative to the capitalist production system, which he identifies as a “small-scale and decentralized production system.” This system would allow for individual ownership and management of production means. Jebraily aligns his thoughts with those of Ayatollah Khamenei, who has long advocated for increased public participation in economic matters. The concept is likened to the participation seen during the Iran-Iraq war, where the public played a decisive role due to the government providing both the environment and the necessary tools for participation. In contrast, Jebraily points out that the current economic system, influenced heavily by capitalist principles, lacks these elements, thus impeding mass public involvement. For effective public participation, Jebraily suggests the creation of mechanisms and environments similar to those during times of war, where individuals had the tools and a conducive environment to engage actively and effectively.

De-Dollarization of Iran's Economy

Jebraily has discussed the concept of Dollarization and its implications for Iran’s economy. According to Jebraily, Dollarization refers to the situation where a foreign currency, usually the U.S. dollar, takes over the functions of the national currency. This phenomenon can have several adverse effects, including diminishing the demand for the national currency, reducing the effectiveness of monetary policies, and hindering the government’s ability to manage the macroeconomic environment. Jebraily emphasizes that money has three primary functions: a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account. When foreign currencies begin to perform these roles, the value of the national currency declines. In Iran, dollarization has led to the U.S. dollar becoming a primary measure for pricing. Consequently, any fluctuation in the exchange rate directly affects the prices of goods and services, leading to economic instability. Jebraily asserts that de-dollarization is crucial for stabilizing Iran’s economy. He insists that this is a significant and challenging process that requires national determination and cohesion, as it will face strong resistance from parties benefiting from the current state.

Foreign Policy Views

Jebraily holds a critical and transformative perspective on global political dynamics and foreign policy, emphasizing the need for Islamic unity and an assertive stance against Western hegemonic influence. Jebraily has made significant efforts to prevent Iran from being assimilated into the American-led liberal order.

Shift in Global Order

Jebraily underscores the transformation in the global order, emphasizing a shift from the liberal order led by the United States to a more multipolar world. He argues that the liberal order, established post-Cold War, is experiencing a crisis of attractiveness and effectiveness. This perspective is highlighted by Iran’s inclusion in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) despite ongoing UN Security Council sanctions, signaling a diminishing importance of such sanctions in global diplomacy. According to Jebraily, the number of liberal democracies has decreased, and only a minor percentage of the global population resides in these countries. He views the economic and social crises in the U.S. as rooted in liberal ideology, which has also led to a reduction in the effectiveness of America’s hard and soft power. This decline is evident as the U.S. has faced consistent defeats from its strategic rivals. Jebraily advocates for a new multi-polar order where international cooperation and interactions are based on mutual interests. He notes that countries like China and Russia are significant economic and military powers but lack the civilizational ideology necessary to establish a new global order. In this vacuum, he sees Islam as the sole potential ideology capable of guiding the creation of a new civilization. Jebraily calls for Islamic countries to adopt a dual strategy:1- Undermine the remaining foundations of American leadership to end the liberal order 2- Shape a new internal order based on shared Islamic values. He proposes the establishment of a “Muslim Nations Charter” as an alternative to the current “United Nations Charter,” which he believes is rooted in liberal values.

Joint Comprehensive plan of Action

Jebraily has been a vocal critic of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), often highlighting its perceived shortcomings and failures.

Jebraily argues that Iran gained minimal economic benefits from the JCPOA. Despite expectations, the most important sanctions, particularly financial ones, were not lifted as promised. In his view, the deal did not substantially improve Iran’s economic condition, and the country continued to face significant economic challenges, including sanctions that limited access to petrodollars even after the deal was implemented. Jebraily criticizes the trust placed in the United States and other Western nations by Iran’s negotiation team. He believes that this trust was misplaced, given that the promised economic benefits following the JCPOA were not realized. Instead, he argues that Iran should have been more cautious and not placed so much faith in a perceived win-win relationship with Western countries, which he labels as strategic adversaries. He had predicted that Joe Biden will not return to the deal, from which Donald Trump withdrew in 2018.

Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program

Jebraily has expounded extensively on the Iran-China 25-Year Cooperation Programunderscoring its strategic significance for Iran. From an economic standpoint, Jebraily highlights that the agreement will usher in significant investments from China in various sectors, including infrastructure, energy, and technology. China’s involvement in Iran’s infrastructure projects, such as developing railways and ports, is seen as a crucial step toward enhancing Iran’s economic connectivity and growth potential. Jebraily posits that the collaboration will be mutually beneficial, allowing China to secure a stable energy supply from Iran while providing Iran with the necessary capital and expertise to upgrade its infrastructure. He also notes that the partnership aligns well with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to increase connectivity and cooperation across Asia. On the geopolitical front, Jebraily asserts that the agreement will significantly bolster Iran’s influence in the region. He believes that increased cooperation with China will enable Iran to play a more substantial role in regional affairs, thereby enhancing its geopolitical leverage. Despite his optimism, Jebraily also acknowledges the challenges that Iran must navigate. He emphasizes the necessity for transparent negotiation processes to ensure that Iran’s national interests are safeguarded. Jebraily warns that the benefits of the partnership should be equitably distributed to avoid socio-economic disparities.

Financial Action Task Force

In an article published by Fars News, Jebraily explains that the FATF, originally established to combat money laundering, underwent significant changes after 2001, particularly post-9/11. He notes that the FATF’s functions have since expanded to include combating the financing of terrorism. Jebraily argues that this transformation has made FATF a tool for imposing political pressure, especially by Western powers on countries like Iran. In another article from Mehr News, Jebraily criticizes the reductionist views held by some analysts regarding FATF. He equates misunderstanding the complex nature of FATF’s recommendations to seeing only a part of a problem, leading to flawed solutions. He points out that understanding FATF involves recognizing its broader connections to U.S. sanctions and international economic pressure strategies. Jebraily emphasizes that the FATF’s recommendations, while not legally binding, have been used by the United States as leverage to press Iran into compliance with broader geopolitical aims. He asserts that the implementation of FATF standards, particularly adherence to conventions like CFT (Combating Financing of Terrorism) and Palermo (against Transnational Organized Crime), would make Iran more vulnerable to economic sanctions. He concludes that accepting FATF recommendations would not resolve Iran’s issues but instead intensify U.S. pressure on the country.

Paris Agreement

Jebraily has articulated strong opposition to the Paris Agreement and its implications for Iran, particularly concerning its impact on the country’s energy sector and industrial development. He argues that the decline in the growth rate of Iran’s electricity production capacity during the Rouhani administration is not solely due to water scarcity. He suggests that Iran’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Paris Agreement is a major factor. Jebraily has criticized the Rouhani administration for preparing Iran to meet its Paris Agreement commitments without sufficient public discourse or parliamentary approval. Jebraily is skeptical of the intentions behind global climate agreements, suggesting they are mechanisms for developed countries to maintain their industrial dominance by restricting the industrial growth of developing nations like Iran. He highlights the paradox of major polluters like the United States withdrawing from the Paris Agreement while smaller contributors like Iran face severe restrictions.