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February–March 2024 Welsh Labour leadership election

The February–March 2024 Welsh Labour leadership election took place to select Mark Drakeford's successor as leader of Welsh Labour, who in turn would become First Minister of Wales. Drakeford announced his resignation and retirement on 13 December 2023, five years after his election. Voting began in February 2024 with the new leader announced on 16 March 2024. Vaughan Gething won the election with 51.7% of the vote. The next scheduled Senedd election is due on or before 7 May 2026.

February–March 2024 Welsh Labour leadership election
← 2018 16 February – 16 March 2024 July 2024 →
 
Candidate Vaughan Gething Jeremy Miles
Percentage 51.7% 48.3%
Leader before election

Mark Drakeford

 Elected Leader

Vaughan Gething

Gething was the first black First Minister of Wales and the first black leader of any country in Europe.[1] At the time of Gething's victory, three of the four governments in the UK had a non-white leader.[2] Gething remained in office as first minister and party leader for less than five months, after a government crisis which followed allegations of perjury and resulted in his loss of a non-confidence motion. His resignation in July 2024 sparked a second Welsh Labour leadership ballot which saw Eluned Morgan elected unopposed as his successor.

Background

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In his leadership election in 2018, and several times subsequently, Mark Drakeford said he would leave the role midway through the Senedd term, sometimes specifically saying he expected to leave in 2024.[3][4][5]

On 9 August 2023, Drakeford said he will leave the Welsh parliament at the next election, but refused to be drawn on at what point before 2026 he would quit as first minister.[6] In October 2023 Drakeford confirmed he would stand down "...some time in the next calendar year" but again refused to be drawn on exactly when.[7]

On 13 December 2023, Drakeford announced his intention to resign as Welsh Labour Leader by March 2024, with the leadership election to begin shortly after his December announcement.[8] He denied that the timing was related to criticism he and his government had received for its expansion of 20 mph zones as a default for residential areas.[9]

Timeline

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The timeline for the election was discussed by the Welsh Executive Committee on 13 December 2023 and announced on 16 December.[10][11] Nominations were open from 18 December 2023 and ended for MSs on 21 December and for party affiliates and Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) on 29 January 2024.[11] The final candidates were confirmed later that day, with hustings beginning from 30 January and lasting until 21 February.[12] Voting was open from 16 February until 14 March, with the winning candidate announced on 16 March.[12][11]

Candidates were required to be serving MS[11] and required 20% of current Labour MSs (six including themselves) to nominate them.[13] Alternately, a candidate could be nominated with three MSs in addition to three party affiliates including two trade unions, or by three MSs in addition to 20% of CLPs in Wales.[9]

Campaign

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The race to succeed Drakeford as First Minister of Wales has been overshadowed by controversy surrounding campaign finance.[14] The Institute of Welsh Affairs reported that campaign issues would include the Welsh NHS, the climate, constitutional and democratic reform, economic issues, and the party's relationship to the wider UK Labour Party.[15]

Various candidates were expected to put themselves forward in the election. Media speculation considered the economy minister Vaughan Gething, the education minister Jeremy Miles, the health minister Eluned Morgan, and deputy minister for social partnership Hannah Blythyn, to be the most likely candidates to stand. Morgan ruled out standing on 15 December, saying she wanted to focus on her ministerial work.[16] Blythyn ruled out standing on 15 December thanking the support that was extended to her from the Labour movement, before backing Miles.[17] Gething announced his candidacy on 14 December. Gething has served as an MS for Cardiff South and Penarth since 2011, as health minister from 2016 to 2021 and as economy minister since 2021. He previously stood for the leadership of Welsh Labour in 2018 against Drakeford. Gething would be the first black leader of a country in Europe.[18] Miles announced his candidacy on 18 December, with the support of more than half of Labour MSs.[19][20] Miles has served as the MS for Neath since 2016, as counsel general from 2017 and Brexit minister from 2018,[21] both to 2021 and as education and Welsh language minister since 2021.[22]

On the economy, both candidates propose investing in sustainable industry to create jobs and growth.[23] Gething said he would create a "fair work fund" to support "better working practices".[24] Miles promised to establish an economic council to advise the Welsh Government and provide "financial incentives for recent graduates to stay in" Wales.[24][25]

On healthcare, both candidates supported the establishment of a national care service.[23] Gething said he would maintain NHS spending in Wales to ensure it was the same or higher per person as in England and would consult patients, staff and trade unions about how to improve performance.[26] He said he would "establish a women's health plan".[24] Miles said he would increase Welsh government spending on health and education, with a focus on reducing NHS waiting times including by starting "dedicated orthopaedic centres for knee and hip replacements".[27] Gething said that specialist centres described by Miles were already being opened.[23] Miles pledged to improve accountability and "fast-track reform and rebuild trust" in Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board.[24]

On education, Miles said he would increase Welsh government spending and provide "free Welsh lessons for parents whose children attend Welsh-medium school".[24] Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives criticised him for pledging to increase the education budget he cut as the minister responsible.[25] Gething said he wanted to increase provision of free childcare.[28]

On housing and the environment, both candidates proposed the establishment of an "environmental governance body".[24] Gething promised a housing retrofitting programme to reduce carbon emissions while Miles proposed a new rent-to-own housing scheme.[24] Miles expressed support for a Welsh government policy that would provide a subsidy to farmers who plant trees on 10% of their land and set aside 10% as habitats for wildlife, while Gething suggested that the requirements could be relaxed.[29]

Miles said he would immediately begin a review of the implementation of the expansion of 20 mph zones, but would not reverse the policy overall.[27] Gething said that the policy had not been communicated well but that he would not reverse it.[29] He said that public consultation would be part of the review of the policy.[30]

Miles also wanted powers over "crime, justice and benefits" to be devolved to Wales and promised to phase out greyhound racing and proposed a review of dog licences.[24][23][27]

On 21 February 2024, it was revealed that Gething took £200,000 for his campaign from a twice convicted businessman.[31] On 12 March, it was shown that Gething had lobbied regulators in support of the businessman's company, which has been prosecuted for waste crimes.[32] After the election, Gething has refused to return the £200,000 donation.[33]

Candidates

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Declared

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Candidate Political office Campaign Date declared Nominations Ref.
 
Vaughan Gething 		Health and social services minister (2016–2021)
Economy minister (2021–present)
MS for Cardiff South and Penarth (2011–present) 		 
Website 		14 December 2023 11 / 30
36.7%
Nominations
 [37]
 
Jeremy Miles 		European transition minister (2018–2021)
Counsel General (2017–2021)
Education and Welsh language minister (2021–present)
MS for Neath (2016–present) 		 
Website 		18 December 2023 17 / 30
56.7%
Nominations
 [20]

Mark Drakeford and Jane Hutt (Chief Whip) were not supporting any candidate due to their positions.[20]

Declined

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The following MSs said they did not seek election:

Nominations, supporting nominations and endorsements

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Candidates required nominations by at least six MSs, including themselves, or at least three MSs and three party affiliates including two trades unions, or at least three MSs and at least 20% of Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs). They could receive official supporting nominations from MPs, council leaders and peers. Other notable figures and organisations that endorsed leadership candidates with no bearing on nomination are listed below.

Vaughan Gething

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Nominations

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Gething was nominated by nine affiliated groups including six trades unions.[45]

Gething was nominated by fourteen Constituency Labour Parties.[45]

Supporting nominations

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Gething received supporting nominations from eleven MPs.

Gething received supporting nominations from three peers.

Gething received supporting nominations from ten local government group leaders.[45]

Endorsements

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Jeremy Miles

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Nominations

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Miles was nominated by eight affiliated groups including three trades unions.[49]

Miles was nominated by fifteen Constituency Labour Parties.[49]

Supporting nominations

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Miles received a supporting nomination from one MP.[49]

Miles received supporting nominations from four peers.[49]

Miles received supporting nominations from six local government group leaders.[49]

Endorsements

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Debates

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No. Date and time Location Programme Broadcaster Presenter(s) Candidates Ref.
 P  Participant    N  No debate Gething Miles
1 21 Feb 2024,
9:00 pm 		Cardiff BBC Wales Live: Welsh Labour Leadership Debate BBC One Wales Bethan Rhys Roberts P P [52][53]

Opinion polling

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Welsh public

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Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Jeremy
Miles 		Vaughan
Gething 		Mick
Antoniw 		Hannah
Blythyn 		Eluned
Morgan 		Ken
Skates 		Don't
Know 		Other
18 February 2024 Redfield and Wilton N/A 874 11% 27% – – – – 38% 23%
24 Jan – 6 Feb 2024 More In Common ITV Wales 1,000 17% 20% – – – – 62% –
24 – 26 January 2024 Redfield and Wilton N/A 1,100 10% 27% – – – – 40% 24%
13 December 2023 Mark Drakeford announces his intention to resign as First Minister of Wales
10 – 11 December 2023 Redfield and Wilton WalesOnline 1,086 6% 16% – – 13% – 46% 19%
4 – 7 December 2023 YouGov ITV Wales / Cardiff University[54] 1,004 3% 11% 1% 1% 3% 1% 72% 8%

Results

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Candidate
 Affiliated
members
 Individual
members
Total
Vaughan Gething MS 52.7% 50.7% 51.7%
Jeremy Miles MS 47.3% 49.3% 48.3%

Source: BBC News[55][56]

References

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  1. ^ Morris, Steven (16 March 2024). "Vaughan Gething to become Welsh first minister after Labour leadership win". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 March 2024.
  2. ^ "Wales elects Vaughan Gething, first Black national leader in Europe - CBS News". CBS News. 16 March 2024.
  3. ^ "Mark Drakeford 'will not serve whole Senedd term'". BBC News. 19 July 2020. Retrieved 5 January 2023.
  4. ^ Hayward, Will (26 December 2022). "The Mark Drakeford interview as First Minister confirms he intends to stand down in 2024". WalesOnline. Retrieved 6 January 2023.
  5. ^ Morris, Steven (1 January 2023). "Welsh Labour is readying for snap general election, says Mark Drakeford". The Guardian. Retrieved 5 January 2023.
  6. ^ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
  7. ^ "Labour: Drakeford makes case for party being bold in power". BBC News. Retrieved 10 October 2023.
  8. ^ Morris, Steven (13 December 2023). "Mark Drakeford to step down as Wales first minister". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
  9. ^ a b c "Wales' First Minister Mark Drakeford resigns". BBC News. 13 December 2023. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
  10. ^ Mosalski, Ruth (13 December 2023). "Who is going to replace Mark Drakeford as Welsh Labour leader". WalesOnline. Retrieved 16 December 2023.
  11. ^ a b c d e "What's next for the Welsh Labour leadership race? – Full timeline for next First Minister revealed". ITV News. 16 December 2023. Retrieved 16 December 2023.
  12. ^ a b Mosalski, Ruth (19 December 2023). "The date Wales will have a new First Minister". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  13. ^ Blake, Aled (4 November 2017). "Welsh Labour agrees new leadership election rules". Wales Online. Retrieved 6 January 2023.
  14. ^ "Welsh Labour leadership: The controversy that changed the race". BBC News. 15 March 2024. Retrieved 15 March 2024.
  15. ^ Furet, Marine (15 December 2023). "IWA Analysis: View from the starting line: Key issues in the race to become First Minister". Institute of Welsh Affairs. Retrieved 16 December 2023.
  16. ^ a b "Drakeford resigns: Eluned Morgan out of Wales leader race". BBC News. 15 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  17. ^ "Hannah Blythyn on X: ""In politics as in life, timing is everything. Whilst I am grateful for the support extended to me from across the Labour movement, after careful consideration, I have decided to support @Jeremy_Miles to be the next Welsh Labour Leader. 1/2" / X (twitter.com)".
  18. ^ Morris, Steven; @stevenmorris20 (14 February 2024). "'You can't deny the historic nature': Wales' Vaughan Gething aims to become first black leader of a European country". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 16 February 2024.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  19. ^ "Drakeford resigns: Eluned Morgan out of Wales leader race". BBC News. 14 December 2023. Retrieved 16 December 2023.
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  23. ^ a b c d "Labour: What's the difference between Gething and Miles' manifestos?". BBC News. 7 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h "Welsh Labour: What are the pledges of the candidates vying to lead Wales?". Sky News. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  25. ^ a b "Jeremy Miles says he'll increase spending on education if he becomes Wales' First Minister". ITV News. 6 January 2024.
  26. ^ "Vaughan Gething says he would be dead without NHS". BBC News. 5 January 2024. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
  27. ^ a b c "Jeremy Miles rules out 20mph U-turn if he becomes first minister". BBC News. 5 January 2024. Retrieved 10 January 2024.
  28. ^ "Welsh Labour: Vaughan Gething pledges to expand free childcare". BBC News. 26 January 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  29. ^ a b "20mph: We got message wrong, Labour's Vaughan Gething says". BBC News. 11 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  30. ^ "20mph: Labour hopeful Vaughan Gething promises public say". BBC News. 15 January 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  31. ^ Deans, David; Lewis, Gareth (21 February 2024). "Vaughan Gething accepts £200k from environmental offender's company". BBC News. Retrieved 6 March 2024.
  32. ^ Deans, David (12 March 2024). "Vaughan Gething helped donor's waste offence company". BBC News. Retrieved 12 March 2024.
  33. ^ Grey, Jack (17 March 2024). "Vaughan Gething rejects calls to return £200k donation". BBC News. Retrieved 19 March 2024.
  34. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Vaughan Gething announces Welsh first minister bid". BBC News. 14 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  35. ^ Williams, Rhys (20 December 2023). "Welsh Labour leadership: Who's backing who to become the next First Minister?". Caerphilly Observer. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  36. ^ "Jeremy Miles secures majority support from Labour MSS in quest to replace First Minister". 17 December 2023.
  37. ^ "Vaughan Gething enters race to succeed Mark Drakeford as Wales's first minister". Sky News. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  38. ^ a b "Vaughan Gething confirms he will stand in race to be next leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister".
  39. ^ a b c d Masters, Adrian (15 December 2023). "Jeremy Miles has enough endorsements to be balloted for next Welsh Labour leader and First Minister". ITV News.
  40. ^ "Drakeford resignation: Who will be Wales' next first minister?". BBC News. 13 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  41. ^ Lewis, Gareth (15 December 2023). "Drakeford resignation: Who will be Wales' next first minister?". BBC News. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  42. ^ a b "The cabinet ministers who are favourites to succeed Mark Drakeford". Wales Online. 18 May 2021. Retrieved 5 January 2023.
  43. ^ Carter, Chris (10 August 2023). "Drakeford's final act: budget warfare and the search for a successor". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 10 August 2023.
  44. ^ Aitken, Catriona; Mercer, Rosie (13 December 2023). "First Minister Mark Drakeford stands down as Welsh Labour leader: Minister rules herself out of leadership race". BBC News.
  45. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Vaughan Gething". action.labour.org.uk. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  46. ^ a b Williams, Rhys (20 December 2023). "Welsh Labour leadership: Who's backing who to become the next First Minister?". Caerphilly Observer. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
  47. ^ a b "Two more Gwent MPs back Vaughan Gething in Welsh Labour leadership race". South Wales Argus. 16 December 2023. Retrieved 18 December 2023.
  48. ^ Browne, Adrian (14 February 2024). "Welsh Labour: Lord Kinnock backs Gething to be next FM". BBC News. Retrieved 15 February 2024.
  49. ^ a b c d e "Jeremy Miles". action.labour.org.uk. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  50. ^ "Big names in Welsh politics and entertainment back candidates to be first minister". South Wales Argus. 15 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  51. ^ a b Mosalski, Ruth; Hayward, Will; Jones, Branwen; Ahmed, Reem (20 December 2023). "Two men who are battling to become Wales' next First Minister". Wales Online. Retrieved 31 December 2023.
  52. ^ "BBC Cymru Wales' Welsh leadership campaign coverage to begin". BBC. Retrieved 23 February 2024.
  53. ^ "BBC iPlayer - BBC Wales Live - Welsh Labour Leadership Debat". BBC. Retrieved 23 February 2024.
  54. ^ "Favourites to replace First Minister Mark Drakeford revealed in ITV Wales poll". ITV News. 13 December 2023. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  55. ^ "Vaughan Gething set to become Wales' first minister after winning leadership contest". BBC News. 16 March 2024. Retrieved 16 March 2024.
  56. ^ Lewis, Gareth; Deans, David (18 March 2024). "Vaughan Gething: Labour politicians meet to discuss concerns". BBC News. Retrieved 18 March 2024.
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