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2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

(Redirected from Jay Armstrong)

This article is about the special election. For the regularly-held election, see 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska.
For broader coverage of this topic, see Alaska's at-large congressional district.

The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young.[2] Mary Peltola was elected in a 3-way race against former governor Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III in the election, becoming the first Alaska Native and woman to represent Alaska in the House.[3]

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
← 2020 August 16, 2022 November 2022 →
Alaska's at-large congressional district
Turnout32.2%[1]
 
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round 74,817
39.7% 		58,339
30.9% 		52,536
27.8%
Final round 91,266
51.5% 		86,026
48.5% 		Eliminated
Peltola:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Palin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Don Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

The election was the first to use Alaska's new ranked-choice voting (RCV) method, approved by voters in 2020. The winners of the top-four blanket primary advanced to the ranked-choice runoff election, but only three candidates competed (as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola). Peltola was declared the winner on August 31 after all ballots were counted.[4][5][6] Peltola's victory was widely seen as an upset in a traditionally Republican state. She became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008[7] and was sworn in on September 13.[8]

The results were praised by many pundits and activists. FairVote, a pro-RCV lobbying group, argued the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system.[9] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.[10]

By contrast, some scholars criticized the instant-runoff procedure for its pathological behavior,[11][12] the result of a center squeeze.[12][13][14] Although Mary Peltola received a plurality of first choice votes and won in the final round, a majority of voters ranked her last or left her off their ballot entirely.[12] Begich was eliminated in the first round, despite being preferred by a majority to each one of his opponents, with 53% of voters ranking him above Peltola.[12][15][16] However, Palin spoiled the election by splitting the first-round vote, leading to Begich's elimination and costing Republicans the seat.[12][17]

The election was also a negative voting weight event,[17] where a voter's ballot has the opposite of its intended effect (e.g. a candidate being disqualified for having "too many votes").[17][18] In this race, Begich lost as a result of 5,200 ballots ranking him ahead of Peltola;[17][12] Peltola also would have lost if she had received more support from Palin voters.[17][19]

In the wake of the election, a poll found 54% of Alaskans, including a third of Peltola voters, supported a repeal of RCV,[10] leading some observers to compare it to the 2009 Burlington mayoral election, where similar pathologies resulted in a 2010 initiative repealing the system.[20][21][22] Observers noted such pathologies would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading some to suggest Alaska adopt an alternative rule without this behavior.[11]

Nonpartisan blanket primary

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Santa Claus
 
John Coghill
 
Christopher Constant
 
John Howe
 
Jeff Lowenfels
 
J. R. Myers
 
Josh Revak
 
Tara Sweeney
 
Adam Wool

Candidates

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Advanced to general election

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Withdrew after advancing to general election

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

Organizations

Individuals

  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law[47]
Santa Claus (I)

State legislators

Christopher Constant (D)

U.S. senators

  • Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)

State legislators

Local officials

Al Gross (I)

State officials

State legislators

Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. federal legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

Individuals

Josh Revak (R)

Individuals

  • Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow[53]
Tara Sweeney (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

State officials

Organizations

  • ANCSA Regional Association[54]

Debates and forums

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2022 Alaska at-large special primary debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Begich Coghill Constant Gross Lowenfels Palin Revak Peltola Sweeney
1[55] May 12, 2022 Alaska Chamber
Alaska Miners Association
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Alaska Support Industry Alliance
Associated General Contractors of Alaska
Resource Development Council 		N/A Youtube[56] P P P P P P P P P

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Nick
Begich
(R) 		Santa
Claus
(I) 		John
Coghill
(R) 		Christopher
Constant
(D) 		Al
Gross
(I) 		Andrew
Halcro
(I) 		Jeff
Lowenfels
(I) 		Sarah
Palin
(R) 		Mary
Peltola
(D) 		Josh
Revak
(R) 		Tara
Sweeney
(R) 		Adam
Wool
(D) 		Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[57] May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 6% 2% 5% 13% 2% 3% 19% 5% 4% 4% 2% 4% 16%
Remington Research Group (R)[58] April 7–9, 2022 955 (LV) ± 3.1% 21% – – 7% 26% – – 31% – 3% 2% – 4% 6%

Results

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Primary election results by state house district
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election results[59]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Sarah Palin 43,601 27.01
Republican Nick Begich 30,861 19.12
Independent Al Gross[b] 20,392 12.63
Democratic Mary Peltola 16,265 10.08
Republican Tara Sweeney 9,560 5.92
Independent Santa Claus 7,625 4.72
Democratic Christopher Constant 6,224 3.86
Independent Jeff Lowenfels 5,994 3.71
Republican John Coghill 3,842 2.38
Republican Josh Revak 3,785 2.34
Independent Andrew Halcro 3,013 1.87
Democratic Adam Wool 2,730 1.69
Democratic Emil Notti 1,777 1.10
Libertarian Chris Bye 1,049 0.65
Democratic Mike Milligan 608 0.38
Independence John Howe 380 0.24
Independent Laurel Foster 338 0.21
Republican Stephen Wright 332 0.21
Republican Jay Armstrong 286 0.18
Libertarian J. R. Myers 285 0.18
Independent Gregg Brelsford 284 0.18
Democratic Ernest Thomas 199 0.12
Republican Bob Lyons 197 0.12
Republican Otto Florschutz 193 0.12
Republican Maxwell Sumner 133 0.08
Republican Clayton Trotter 121 0.07
Independent Anne McCabe 118 0.07
Republican John Callahan 114 0.07
Independent Arlene Carle 107 0.07
Independent Tim Beck 96 0.06
Independent Sherry Mettler 92 0.06
Republican Tom Gibbons 94 0.06
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess 87 0.05
American Independent Robert Ornelas 83 0.05
Independent Ted Heintz 70 0.04
Independent Silvio Pellegrini 70 0.04
Independent Karyn Griffin 67 0.04
Independent David Hughes 54 0.03
Independent Don Knight 46 0.03
Republican Jo Woodward 44 0.03
Independent Jason Williams 37 0.02
Independent Robert Brown 36 0.02
Independent Dennis Aguayo 31 0.02
Independent William Hibler III 25 0.02
Republican Bradley Welter 24 0.01
Independent David Thistle 23 0.01
Independent Brian Beal 19 0.01
Republican Mikel Melander 17 0.01
Total votes 161,428 100.0

General election

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Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.[40]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[60] Likely R August 10, 2022
Inside Elections[61] Likely R August 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] Safe R June 22, 2022

Endorsements

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Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

Local officials

  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member

Organizations'

Individuals

  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law
Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. federal legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

U.S. federal legislators

State officials

State legislators

  • Zack Fields, state representative (2019–present)
  • Berta Gardner, former state senator (2013–2019) and representative (2005–2013)
  • Ivy Spohnholz, state representative (2016–present)

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
count 		Nick
Begich
(R) 		Al
Gross
(I) 		Sarah
Palin
(R) 		Mary
Peltola
(D) 		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[69] July 20–25, 2022 1,219 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 30% – 29% 41% –
2 55% – 45%
2*[c] – 49% 51%
Alaska Survey Research[70] July 2–5, 2022 1,201 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 31% – 29% 40% –
2 57% – 43%
2*[71][c] – 49% 51%
June 21, 2022 Gross withdraws from the race
Alaska Survey Research[72] May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 29% 27% 26% 19% –
2 33% 40% 28% –
3 54% 46% –
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
count 		Nick
Begich
(R) 		Santa
Claus
(I) 		Christopher
Constant
(D) 		Al
Gross
(I) 		Sarah
Palin
(R) 		Tara
Sweeney
(R) 		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[73] May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 28% 21% – 26% 25% – –
2 32% – 40% 28%
3 53% 47% –
3*[74][d] – 53% – 47%
Alaska Survey Research[75] May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 29% – 17% 27% 28% – –
2 32% – 40% 28%
3 54% 46% –
Alaska Survey Research[76] May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 28% – 35% 26% 11% –
2 32% 39% 29% –
3 55% 45% –

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
count 		Al
Gross
(I) 		Sarah
Palin
(R) 		Lora
Reinbold
(R) 		Josh
Revak
(R) 		Undecided
Change Research (D)[77][A] March 25–29, 2022 728 (LV) ± 3.6% BA 33% 30% 8% 9% 16%
2 33% 30% – 11% 26%
3 35% 35% – – 30%

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Al
Gross (I) 		Sarah
Palin (R) 		Undecided
Change Research (D)[77][A] March 25–29, 2022 728 (LV) ± 3.6% 40% 42% 19%

Al Gross vs. Josh Revak

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Al
Gross (I) 		Josh
Revak (R) 		Undecided
Change Research (D)[77][A] March 25–29, 2022 728 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 34% 31%

Results

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Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election[1][78]
Party Candidate First choice Round 1 Round 2
Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola 74,817 39.66% +982 75,799 40.19% +15,467 91,266 51.5%
Republican Sarah Palin 58,339 30.92% +634 58,973 31.27% +27,053 86,026 48.5%
Republican Nick Begich 52,536 27.84% +1,274 53,810 28.53% -53,810 Eliminated
Write-in 2,974 1.58% -2,974 Eliminated
Total votes 188,666 188,582 177,292
Blank or inactive ballots 3,707 +11,290 14,997
Democratic gain from Republican
First round results by state house district
District Nick Begich
Republican 		Sarah Palin
Republican 		Mary Peltola
Democratic 		Write-in Margin [e] Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
District 1 1,448 33.42% 1,409 32.52% 1,432 33.05% 44 1.02% 16 0.37% 4,333
District 2 979 20.03% 1,504 30.78% 2,359 48.27% 45 0.92% 855 17.50% 4,887
District 3 1,522 23.28% 1,235 18.89% 3,723 56.94% 59 0.90% 2,201 33.66% 6,539
District 4 1,003 17.38% 701 12.15% 4,014 69.55% 53 0.92% 3,011 52.17% 5,771
District 5 929 23.05% 1,301 32.27% 1,743 43.24% 58 1.44% 442 10.97% 4,031
District 6 1,923 25.63% 2,468 32.90% 3,039 40.51% 72 0.96% 571 7.61% 7,502
District 7 1,673 30.99% 2,448 45.34% 1,213 22.47% 65 1.20% 775 14.35% 5,399
District 8 1,867 28.54% 3,216 49.17% 1,394 21.31% 64 0.98% 1,349 20.62% 6,541
District 9 2,684 32.55% 1,656 20.08% 3,722 45.13% 185 2.24% 1,038 12.59% 8,247
District 10 1,687 32.11% 1,370 26.08% 2,099 39.96% 97 1.85% 412 7.84% 5,253
District 11 2,054 33.11% 1,506 24.28% 2,537 40.90% 106 1.71% 483 7.79% 6,203
District 12 1,341 28.17% 1,114 23.40% 2,228 46.81% 77 1.62% 887 18.63% 4,760
District 13 1,096 27.41% 1,047 26.18% 1,791 44.79% 65 1.63% 695 17.38% 3,999
District 14 1,000 21.80% 897 19.56% 2,615 57.01% 75 1.64% 1,615 35.21% 4,587
District 15 1,884 32.62% 1,349 23.36% 2,439 42.23% 103 1.78% 555 9.61% 5,775
District 16 1,671 27.09% 1,138 18.45% 3,234 52.43% 125 2.03% 1,563 25.34% 6,168
District 17 905 18.96% 704 14.75% 3,066 64.25% 97 2.03% 2,161 45.28% 4,772
District 18 299 22.91% 360 27.59% 626 47.97% 20 1.53% 266 20.38% 1,305
District 19 536 20.93% 521 20.34% 1,465 57.20% 39 1.52% 929 36.27% 2,561
District 20 885 23.17% 924 24.19% 1,969 51.56% 41 1.07% 1,045 27.36% 3,819
District 21 1,528 28.67% 1,256 23.56% 2,469 46.32% 77 1.44% 941 17.65% 5,330
District 22 755 30.77% 682 27.79% 971 39.57% 46 1.87% 216 8.80% 2,454
District 23 1,909 32.15% 1,884 31.73% 2,044 34.43% 100 1.68% 135 2.27% 5,937
District 24 2,191 37.08% 1,945 32.92% 1,682 28.47% 91 1.54% 246 4.16% 5,909
District 25 2,070 33.93% 2,338 38.32% 1,624 26.62% 69 1.13% 268 4.39% 6,101
District 26 1,566 31.95% 2,398 48.92% 883 18.01% 55 1.12% 832 16.97% 4,902
District 27 1,410 30.78% 2,303 50.27% 809 17.66% 59 1.29% 893 19.49% 4,581
District 28 1,683 32.88% 2,402 46.92% 979 19.12% 55 1.07% 719 14.05% 5,119
District 29 1,834 32.35% 2,390 42.15% 1,395 24.60% 51 0.90% 556 9.81% 5,670
District 30 1,581 26.73% 2,729 46.14% 1,542 26.07% 63 1.07% 1,148 19.41% 5,915
District 31 953 26.64% 1,144 31.98% 1,407 39.33% 73 2.04% 263 7.35% 3,577
District 32 562 26.53% 929 43.86% 581 27.43% 46 2.17% 348 16.43% 2,118
District 33 1,117 27.45% 2,145 52.72% 743 18.26% 64 1.57% 1,028 25.26% 4,069
District 34 1,411 25.52% 1,966 35.56% 2,041 36.91% 111 2.01% 75 1.36% 5,529
District 35 1,182 20.90% 1,453 25.69% 2,911 48.4% 109 1.93% 1,458 25.78% 5,655
District 36 1,485 26.61% 1,979 35.46% 2,030 36.37% 87 1.56% 51 0.91% 5,581
District 37 599 28.62% 563 26.90% 908 43.38% 23 1.10% 309 14.76% 2,093
District 38 289 15.17% 269 14.12% 1,327 69.66% 20 1.05% 1,038 54.49% 1,905
District 39 635 28.01% 391 17.25% 1,185 52.27% 56 2.47% 550 24.26% 2,267
District 40 389 26.46% 303 20.61% 549 37.35% 229 15.58% 160 10.88% 1,470
Overseas voters 1 3.13% 2 6.25% 29 90.63% 0 0.00% 27 84.38% 32
Totals 52,536 27.85% 58,339 30.92% 74,817 39.66% 2,974 1.58% 16,478 8.73% 188,666
Final round results by state house district
District[79][f] Mary Peltola
Democratic 		Sarah Palin
Republican 		Margin[e] Total active votes
# % # % # %
District 1 1,894 49.17% 1,958 50.83% 64 1.66% 3,852
District 2 2,739 59.34% 1,877 40.66% 862 18.67% 4,616
District 3 4,250 68.59% 1,946 31.41% 2,304 37.19% 6,196
District 4 4,408 79.74% 1,120 20.26% 3,288 59.48% 5,528
District 5 2,123 56.05% 1,665 43.95% 458 12.09% 3,788
District 6 3,562 50.10% 3,548 49.90% 14 0.20% 7,110
District 7 1,643 33.34% 3,285 66.66% 1,642 33.32% 4,928
District 8 1,822 30.05% 4,241 69.95% 2,419 39.90% 6,063
District 9 4,536 58.81% 3,177 41.19% 1,359 17.62% 7,713
District 10 2,661 53.83% 2,282 46.17% 379 7.67% 4,943
District 11 3,148 54.23% 2,657 45.77% 491 8.46% 5,805
District 12 2,694 59.43% 1,839 40.57% 855 18.86% 4,533
District 13 2,172 57.07% 1,634 42.93% 538 14.14% 3,806
District 14 3,013 68.93% 1,358 31.07% 1,655 37.86% 4,371
District 15 3,031 55.99% 2,382 44.01% 649 11.99% 5,413
District 16 3,847 65.67% 2,011 34.33% 1,836 31.34% 5,858
District 17 3,475 76.12% 1,090 23.88% 2,385 52.25% 4,565
District 18 727 58.39% 518 41.61% 209 16.79% 1,245
District 19 1,675 68.28% 778 31.72% 897 36.57% 2,453
District 20 2,331 63.64% 1,332 36.36% 999 27.27% 3,663
District 21 2,969 58.68% 2,091 41.32% 878 17.35% 5,060
District 22 1,240 53.54% 1,076 46.46% 164 7.08% 2,316
District 23 2,570 46.28% 2,983 53.72% 413 7.44% 5,553
District 24 2,203 40.27% 3,267 59.73% 1,064 19.45% 5,470
District 25 2,126 37.60% 3,529 62.40% 1,403 24.81% 5,655
District 26 1,175 25.63% 3,409 74.37% 2,234 48.73% 4,584
District 27 1,151 26.88% 3,131 73.12% 1,980 46.24% 4,282
District 28 1,397 29.23% 3,383 70.77% 1,986 41.55% 4,780
District 29 1,855 34.74% 3,484 65.26% 1,629 30.51% 5,339
District 30 1,942 34.88% 3,626 65.12% 1,684 30.24% 5,568
District 31 1,752 52.24% 1,602 47.76% 150 4.47% 3,354
District 32 777 38.66% 1,233 61.34% 456 22.69% 2,010
District 33 1,006 26.18% 2,837 73.82% 1,831 47.65% 3,843
District 34 2,470 47.43% 2,738 52.57% 268 5.15% 5,208
District 35 3,373 62.13% 2,056 37.87% 1,317 24.26% 5,429
District 36 2,462 47.19% 2,755 52.81% 293 5.62% 5,217
District 37 1,157 59.79% 778 40.21% 379 19.59% 1,935
District 38 1,490 80.41% 363 19.59% 1,127 60.82% 1,853
District 39 1,507 74.35% 520 25.65% 987 48.69% 2,027
District 40 863 65.13% 462 34.87% 401 30.26% 1,325
Overseas voters 29 90.63% 3 9.38% 26 81.25% 32
Totals 91,265 48.4% 86,024 45.6% 5,241 2.96% 177,289

Pairwise comparison

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[further explanation needed]

Pairwise comparison matrix[16][12]
Begich Peltola Palin
Begich - 88,126 101,438
Peltola 79,486 - 91,375
Palin 63,666 86,197 -

The pairwise comparison shows that Begich is the Condorcet winner (majority-preferred winner) while Palin is both the Condorcet loser and a spoiler:[80][81][82][83]

Winner Loser Winner Loser
Begich vs. Peltola 52.6% vs. 47.4%
Begich vs. Palin 61.4% vs. 38.6%
Peltola vs. Palin 51.5% vs. 48.5%

See also

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Wikinews has related news:

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ withdrew from the general election following his victory in the primary
  3. ^ a b Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  4. ^ Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. ^ a b Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
  6. ^ Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross

References

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  1. ^ a b "State of Alaska | 2022 SPECIAL GENERAL ELECTION | Election Summary Report | August 16, 2022 | OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 17, 2022. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  2. ^ Miller, Andrew Mark (March 18, 2022). "Alaska Republican Congressman Don Young dead at 88". Fox News. Archived from the original on March 19, 2022. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
  3. ^ Rockey, Tim (September 2022). "Peltola to become first Alaska Native, first female Alaska congresswoman". Alaskasnewssource.com. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  4. ^ Brooks, James (March 19, 2022). "Alaska's first ranked-choice election will be a special vote to replace Rep. Don Young". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on March 23, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  5. ^ Iris Samuels. "Peltola again grows her lead, but final outcome in Alaska's U.S. House race is days away". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on August 28, 2022. Retrieved August 28, 2022.
  6. ^ "Democrat Mary Peltola wins special election to fill Alaska's U.S. House seat". Reuters. September 1, 2022. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  7. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (September 1, 2022). "What Democrats' Win In Alaska Tells Us About November". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  8. ^ Media, Alaska Public; Media, Chris Klint, Alaska Public (September 13, 2022). "Mary Peltola makes history as first Alaska Native person sworn into Congress". KTOO. Retrieved May 19, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  9. ^ Otis, Deb (August 31, 2022). "Results and analysis from Alaska's first RCV election". FairVote.
  10. ^ a b "North to the Future: Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting System is Praised and Criticized Nationally". Alaska Public Media. September 19, 2023.
  11. ^ a b Maskin, Eric; Foley, Edward B. (November 1, 2022). "Opinion: Alaska's ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there's an easy fix". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  12. ^ a b c d e f g Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 11, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". p. 2. arXiv:2209.04764v3 [econ.GN]. Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
  13. ^ Clelland, Jeanne N. (February 28, 2023). "Ranked Choice Voting And the Center Squeeze in the Alaska 2022 Special Election: How Might Other Voting Methods Compare?". p. 6. arXiv:2303.00108v1 [cs.CY].
  14. ^ Atkinson, Nathan; Ganz, Scott C. (October 30, 2022). "The flaw in ranked-choice voting: rewarding extremists". The Hill. Retrieved May 14, 2023. However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred by a majority of voters to each of the more extreme candidates. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
  15. ^ Atkinson, Nathan; Ganz, Scott C. (October 30, 2022). "The flaw in ranked-choice voting: rewarding extremists". The Hill. Retrieved May 14, 2023. However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred to each of the more extreme candidates by a majority of voters. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
  16. ^ a b Clelland, Jeanne N. (February 28, 2023). "Ranked Choice Voting And the Center Squeeze in the Alaska 2022 Special Election: How Might Other Voting Methods Compare?". p. 6. arXiv:2303.00108v1 [cs.CY].
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  19. ^ Hamlin, Aaron (September 16, 2022). "RCV Fools Palin Voters into Electing a Progressive Democrat". The Center for Election Science. Retrieved July 11, 2024. It's a good thing for Peltola that she didn't attract more Palin voters—she'd have lost. The strangeness continues. Peltola could have actually gotten more 1st choice votes in this election and caused herself to lose. How's that? Let's look. [...] Imagine if Peltola reached across the aisle and spoke directly to Palin voters. Imagine that she empathized with their position and identified issues they cared about that Palin and even Begich ignored. And let's say that as a consequence, Peltola got the first-choice votes of between 5,200 and 8,500 voters who would have otherwise ranked only Palin. What happens as a result? Palin would have gotten eliminated in the first round and Peltola would still not be able to beat Begich.
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  81. ^ Holliday, Wesley H.; Pacuit, Eric (October 1, 2023). "Split Cycle: a new Condorcet-consistent voting method independent of clones and immune to spoilers". Public Choice. 197 (1): 1–62. arXiv:2004.02350. doi:10.1007/s11127-023-01042-3. ISSN 1573-7101. and yet with Palin included, Instant Runoff elected the Democrat in the race, making Palin a spoiler
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