Jeff Currie is an economist and currently Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at The Carlyle Group. He is the former Global Head of Commodities Research in the Global Investment Research Division at Goldman Sachs. He rose to prominence during the 2000s by forecasting the commodity super-cycle and oil spiking above $100 a barrel.[1][2] He has been labelled a "maverick" for making bold calls that 'pack a punch'.[3] During the 2010s he was known for forecasting oil prices to stay 'lower for longer' to end the shale supply glut,[4] whilst in more recent times his stance has shifted from bearish to considerably bullish, calling for a new commodities "supercycle" in late 2020 driven by underinvestment in supply, a process he has dubbed "the revenge of the old economy."[5]
Jeff Currie | |
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Born | Reno, Nevada |
Nationality | American and British |
Academic career | |
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Institution | Goldman Sachs, The Carlyle Group |
Alma mater |
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Influences | |
Awards |
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In August 2023, Currie was appointed Chair of the Advisory Group of The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).[6] In February 2024, Currie joined The Carlyle Group.[7]
Early life
editBorn in Reno, Nevada, Currie attended Sprague High School in Salem, Oregon, before attending Pepperdine University, in Malibu, California, where he obtained a Bachelor of Arts Economics in December 1987.
Currie earned a Master of Arts Economics at the University of Chicago in December 1990, and a PhD in economics from the university in June 1996.
Career
editEarly career
editPrior to joining Goldman Sachs, Currie taught undergraduate and graduate level courses in microeconomics and econometrics at The University of Chicago and served as the associate editor of Resource and Energy Economics.[8]
Goldman Sachs
editCurrie joined Goldman Sachs in 1996, where he became Managing Director in 2002 before being named Global Head of Commodities Research in 2006, and a partner in 2008. Between 2010 and 2012, Currie was the European co-head of Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research, where he was based in London.[9]
From 2008 until 2023, he was a Partner and the Global Head of Commodities Research where he was responsible for conducting research on commodity market dynamics in the context of corporate risk management programs, short and long-term commodity investment strategies, and asset allocation.[10]
In July 2003, Currie was selected as one of eight leading gas and energy executives by the United States House Committee on Energy and Commerce to discuss the natural gas supply-demand imbalance that was occurring at the time.[11]
In April 2004, Currie warned of the 'revenge of the old economy' after decades of a lack of investment in the old economy, claiming that higher commodity prices were likely needed to attracted capital. Three months later, in July 2004, Currie authored a Goldman Sachs report that forecasted rising long-term oil prices, arguing that the 'global oil industry is at capacity'.[12]
In March 2007, Currie authored a Goldman Sachs report title Food, Feed and Fuel, which argued the demand pull from food, feed and fuel represented the beginning of a structural increase in prices. Several months later, in July 2007, Currie discussed with Bloomberg the potential impact rising oil prices could have on the global economy. He correctly predicted that oil prices would 'exceed $90 by the end of 2007.[13]
Currie jolted global commodity markets in April 2011 by closing a China themed trading recommendation to be long a basket of crude oil, copper, cotton and platinum (CCCP).[14] The Commodity Market crashed several weeks later.[15] Currie then correctly foresaw the biggest decline in the price of gold for three decades in April 2013, two days ahead of the crash.[16]
Currie co-authored a Goldman Sachs Report in June 2014, titled 'Unlocking the economic potential of North America's energy resources', published at the North American Energy Summit. The report called for a focus on unlocking North America's natural gas potential.[17] Later that year, in October 2014, Currie discussed the 'New Oil Order', arguing that the United States' shale revolution was reshaping global energy markets and forcing them to reassess supply and demand balance.[18]
In November 2017, during an interview with Bloomberg, Currie stated that Bitcoin should be considered a commodity that shares many similarities with gold.[19]
He is a regular commentator on commodity markets and cryptocurrency, featuring on Sky News, Bloomberg and CNBC.[20]
In November 2020, The Daily Telegraph referred to Currie as the "world's most followed energy guru" and reported on his convictions on a new commodity supercycle. Currie predicted Brent prices to reach $65 in the last quarter of 2021.[21] Then, at the end of 2020, Currie argued that a long-lasting bull market for commodities had started.[22]
In January 2021, The Economist also reported on the possibility of a new supercycle, quoting Currie's assertion that the Covid-19 pandemic could represent a "catalyst for a commodity supercycle".[23]
In light of the surge in attention around Gamestop stock, spurred on by social media platform Reddit, Currie questioned the potential influence of retail investors on commodity markets during an interview with Bloomberg in February 2021.[24]
Goldman Retirement
editIn August 2023, Goldman Sachs announced that Currie was leaving the company after 27 years, stating that he had “played a significant role in strengthening our commodities franchise”.[25] At the time of his retirement from Goldman, Fortune featured a quote from a long-term associate Colleen Foster who said of Currie: "There’s never a time I couldn’t get a meeting with a CEO, an oil minister or a hedge fund founder, if Jeff Currie was with me."[26]
In September 2023, Currie was announced as a non-executive director of Canadian financial software company, Abaxx Technologies.[27]
In October 2023, Currie was appointed as Director of the Company by the Board of international drilling contractor, Borr Drilling.[28]
Currie was a key speaker alongside other leading private, public and Governmental figures at the Future Minerals Forum 2024, where he contributed to the conference’s key focus on the mineral sector across Africa, Western and Central Asia.[29]
In February 2024, Currie joined global investment firm The Carlyle Group as Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways, a role that will focus on commodity market trends, the commodity supply chain and the energy transition.[30] The same month, was named on the board of electrical equipment manufacturing company, I-Pulse.
Awards & honours
editCurrie's PhD thesis, titled The Geographic Extent of the Market: Theory and Application to US Petroleum Market, won the Zellner Thesis Award from the American Statistical Association in 1997.[3]
In 2011, City A.M. named Currie as the CNBC Analyst of the Year.[31]
References
edit- ^ Hume, Neil (April 12, 2011). "Goldman jolts commodities market".
- ^ "Oil to stay lower for longer; Chinese demand growth to slow - Goldman". Reuters. January 27, 2015 – via www.reuters.com.
- ^ a b Khasawneh, Radi. "Goldman Sachs partner Jeffrey Currie goes against the flow". www.fnlondon.com.
- ^ "Lower for longer? The impact of "The New Oil Order""
- ^ "Goldman's Jeff Currie: It's a Commodities Supercycle, and We Still Haven't Hit Max Pain". Bloomberg.com. 18 October 2021. Retrieved 2022-02-18.
- ^ "EPIC Announces New Advisory Group with Founding Members". EPIC. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
- ^ "Carlyle Names Jeff Currie as Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways". The Carlyle Group.
- ^ "Goldman's 'supercycle' commodities guru is out just months after saying he's 'never been this wrong for this long'". Fortune. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
- ^ ""Jeffrey R. Currie Global Investment Research"" (PDF).
- ^ "Wall Street's Biggest Commodities Bull Is Retiring". WSJ. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
- ^ "House Panel Invites 8 Top Energy Officials to Gas Supply-Demand Hearing". June 10, 2003.
- ^ "Costly crude not the end of the story for oil majors". Resilience. July 4, 2004.
- ^ "Oil: OPEC in Charge, $90 on the Way?"
- ^ "Goldman Sachs signals end of oil price rises". the Guardian. April 12, 2011.
- ^ "What caused the silver price spike – and crash?". www.telegraph.co.uk. 16 May 2011.
- ^ "Goldman's Contrarian Currie Foresaw Gold Collapse Paulson Missed"
- ^ ""Unlocking the economic potential of North America's energy resources"" (PDF).
- ^ "Deciphering Today's Oil Markets". OilPrice.com.
- ^ Archer, Seth. "Goldman Sachs says bitcoin is a commodity". Markets Insider.
- ^ "Goldman Sachs says bitcoin is a commodity"
- ^ Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose (2020-11-26). "The next commodity supercycle may already be underway". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2021-02-22.
- ^ "Goldman Is Trumpeting A New Secular Commodities Bull Market And Investors Should Listen". Seeking Alpha. 2020-12-16.
- ^ "Commodity prices are surging". The Economist. 2021-01-12. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2021-02-22.
- ^ "Oil Jumps to One-Year High With Depleting Supplies Aiding Rally". Bloomberg.com. 2021-02-01. Retrieved 2021-02-22.
- ^ "Goldman Commodities Research Chief Jeff Currie Set to Leave". Bloomberg.com. 2023-08-07. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
- ^ "Goldman's 'supercycle' commodities guru is out just months after saying he's 'never been this wrong for this long'". Fortune. Retrieved 2023-11-20.
- ^ Inc, Abaxx Technologies (2023-09-19). "Abaxx Technologies Announces Additional Director to be Appointed Ahead of AGM". GlobeNewswire News Room (Press release). Retrieved 2023-10-25.
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has generic name (help) - ^ "Borr Drilling Limited – Appointment of Directors to the Board – Borr Drilling". borrdrilling.com. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
- ^ "Future Minerals Forum Conference Speakers". Future Minerals Forum.
- ^ Bousso, Ron (February 27, 2024). "Exclusive: Carlyle hires Goldman's former top commodities analyst Jeff Currie". Reuters.
- ^ "Analyst of the Year