Mississauga—Lakeshore (federal electoral district)

Mississauga—Lakeshore
Ontario electoral district
	Mississauga—Lakeshore in relation to the other Mississauga ridings
Federal electoral district
Legislature	House of Commons
MP	Charles Sousa; Liberal
;
District created	1976
First contested	1979
Last contested	2022 by-election
District webpage	profile, map
Demographics
Population (2011)	118,893
Electors (2015)	85,379
Area (km²)	92
Pop. density (per km²)	1,292.3
Census division(s)	Peel
Census subdivision(s)	Mississauga

Mississauga—Lakeshore (formerly Mississauga South) is a federal electoral district in Peel Region, Ontario, Canada. It has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1979.

Geography

The riding includes the Mississauga neighbourhoods of Clarkson, Lakeview, Lorne Park, Mineola, Port Credit, Sheridan, Sheridan Park, Southdown and parts of Erindale and Cooksville.

Demographics

According to the 2021 Canadian census^[3]

Ethnic groups: 63.7% White, 10.1% South Asian, 5.1% Chinese, 4.9% Black, 3.3% Arab, 3.3% Filipino, 1.9% Latin American, 1.5% Southeast Asian, 1.3% Indigenous, 1.2% West Asian
Languages: 65.5% English, 4.1% Polish, 2.4% Mandarin, 2.4% Arabic, 2.2% Portuguese, 2.0% Urdu, 1.9% French, 1.9% Spanish, 1.8% Italian, 1.5% Tagalog, 1.3% Serbo-Croatian
Religions: 58.5% Christian (34.8% Catholic, 3.9% Anglican, 3.6% Christian Orthodox, 3.3% United Church, 1.4% Presbyterian, 1.1% Baptist, 11.6% Others), 8.9% Muslim, 3.1% Hindu, 1.1% Buddhist, 26.4% No religion
Median income (2020): $45,600
Average income (2020): $73,900

Political geography

Conservative support is centred in the central part of the riding, particularly in the upscale Lorne Park and Mineola areas, while the Liberals tend to do better along the waterfront of the riding, such as Port Credit and Lakeview, and the eastern and western edges of the riding in neighbourhoods like Clarkson and Sheridan.

History

The federal riding was created in 1976 from parts of Mississauga.

It consisted initially of the part of the City of Mississauga lying south of a line drawn from west to east along Highway 5 (Dundas Street), south along Cawthra Road, and east along the Queen Elizabeth Way.

In 1987, it was redefined to consist of the part of the City of Mississauga lying south of a line drawn from southwest to northeast along Dundas Street West, east along the Credit River, northeast along the Queen Elizabeth Way, northwest along Cawthra Road, and northeast along the Queensway East to the eastern city limit.

Map of the riding (1996 boundaries)

In 1996, it was redefined to consist of the part of the City of Mississauga lying south of a line drawn from southwest to northeast along Dundas Street West, southeast along Erin Mills Parkway, northeast along the Queen Elizabeth Way, northwest along Hurontario Street, northeast along the Queensway East to the northeastern city limit.

In 2003, it was given its current boundaries as described above.

In 2013, the riding gained the area around Huron Park, and was renamed Mississauga—Lakeshore. It was defined to consist of the part of the City of Mississauga lying southeast of a line drawn from northeast to southwest along the Queensway to Mavis Road, north along Mavis Road until Dundas Street and west along Dundas Street to the southwestern city limit.

Since the 2015 Canadian Federal election, the Liberal Party of Canada has succeeded in holding Mississauga—Lakeshore as they have done in 2015, 2019 and 2021 elections with significant margins over 45%. This trend is aligned with the continued Liberal Party of Canada's dominance of Greater Toronto Area politics and seats.

Following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, at the first election held after approximately April 2024, It will gain part of Mississauga East—Cooksville south of Dundas Street and west of Stillmeadow Road.^[4]

Electoral history

The Mississauga South riding and its precursors, while being more competitive than in provincial elections, still has a generally conservative history, and despite voting Liberal since 1993, could be described as a small "c" conservative riding. The Progressive Conservatives held the riding from creation its first election in 1979 under Don Blenkarn, (who served as MP for Peel South, one of the precursor ridings between 1972 and 1974), until 1993, when he was defeated by Paul Szabo. With the exception of the 1988 election, Szabo has been the Liberal candidate in all election between 1980 (an election he almost won) and 2011.

The riding voting Liberal in 1993 can in part be blamed by vote-splitting on the right, as Blenkarn was knocked into third place by the Reform Party candidate, although both were far behind Szabo, who only marginally improved on the Liberal performance from 1988, winning 37%, only 2% more than the 1988 Liberal result, and less than the combined vote total for the two right-wing parties. Szabo however greatly increased his percentage of the vote in the elections afterward, winning over 50% in every election from 1997 to 2004, despite facing a united right-wing vote in 2004.

In the 2006 election Szabo and the Liberals were re-elected again; however, the Liberal vote dropped sharply, with the Conservatives coming within 5% of winning the riding, getting 40% of the vote, one of the best performances for them in the Greater Toronto Area. The riding was generally assumed to be a top Tory target for the next election; however, the drawn-out and somewhat acrimonious nature of the Conservative nomination process, and Szabo's increased profile as a result of his chairmanship of the House of Commons Ethics committee may have damaged Conservative attempts to capture the riding. Despite the Conservatives strengthening in the 2008 election overall, Arrison was unable to defeat Szabo, and Mississauga South was one of the few ridings outside Quebec where the Liberal Party increased the percentage of the vote received from 2006 (albeit very slightly).

From 2011 to 2015 the riding was held by the Conservatives, however, starting in 2015 as a part of the overall Liberal dominance of Greater Toronto Area seats and ridings, the riding has gone and stayed Liberal. Incumbent Sven Spengemann defeated Conservative Stella Ambler in 2015 and 2019 and Conservative challenger Michael Ras in the 2021 snap election.

In May 2022, Spengemann announced his resignation in order to accept a position with the United Nations, prompting a by-election. Throughout the summer the Conservatives nominated Peel Police officer and gang prevention expert Ron Chhinzer, the NDP put forward Julia Kole - a party staffer, and the Greens nominated Mary Kidnew - a climate activist.

By November the Liberals nominated Charles Sousa, former Ontario Finance Minister (2013-2018) and MPP for Mississauga—Lakeshore (2007-2018), and by the following days, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the by-election (November 12) for an election day of December 12.

Sousa won the by-election soundly on Monday, December 12, 2022, capturing just over 51% of the vote which is the highest Liberal vote share in Mississauga—Lakeshore in years. The Conservatives trailed with 37% of the vote with the NDP and Greens collecting last than 5% of the vote, respectively.

Riding associations

Riding associations are the local branches of political parties:

Party		Association name	CEO	HQ address
	Conservative	Mississauga—Lakeshore Conservative Association	Brian J. Schmidt	1801 Lakeshore Road West
	Liberal	Mississauga—Lakeshore Federal Liberal Association
	New Democratic	Mississauga—Lakeshore Federal NDP Riding Association	Eric S. Guerbilsky	44 Park Street East

Members of Parliament

This riding has elected the following members of the House of Commons of Canada:

Parliament	Years		Party
Mississauga South Riding created from Mississauga
31st	1979–1980	Don Blenkarn	Progressive Conservative
32nd	1980–1984
33rd	1984–1988
34th	1988–1993
35th	1993–1997	Paul Szabo	Liberal
36th	1997–2000
37th	2000–2004
38th	2004–2006
39th	2006–2008
40th	2008–2011
41st	2011–2015	Stella Ambler	Conservative
Mississauga—Lakeshore
42nd	2015–2019	Sven Spengemann	Liberal
43rd	2019–2021
44th	2021–2022
44th	2022–present	Charles Sousa

Election results

Graph of election results in Mississauga South, Mississauga—Lakeshore (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

Mississauga—Lakeshore (2013-present)

Graph of election results in Mississauga—Lakeshore (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

Next Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Charles Sousa
	Conservative	Tom Ellard
	New Democratic	Julia Kole
	People's	Khaled Al-Sudani
Total valid votes/Expense limit
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

2021 federal election redistributed results^[5]
Party		Vote	%
	Liberal	25,822	45.01
	Conservative	22,134	38.58
	New Democratic	5,606	9.77
	People's	2,444	4.26
	Green	1,265	2.20
	Others	101	0.18

v t e Canadian federal by-election, December 12, 2022 Resignation of Sven Spengemann
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Charles Sousa	12,766	51.45	+6.50
	Conservative	Ron Chhinzer	9,215	37.14	-1.54
	New Democratic	Julia Kole	1,231	4.96	-4.79
	Green	Mary Kidnew	792	3.19	+0.94
	People's	Khaled Al-Sudani	293	1.18	-3.03
	Independent	Sean Carson	48	0.19	—
	Independent	Charles Currie	44	0.18	—
	Independent	Patrick Strzalkowski	38	0.15	—
	Independent	Peter House	31	0.12	—
	Independent	Mélodie Anderson	29	0.12	—
	Rhinoceros	Sébastien CoRhino	24	0.10	-0.07
	Independent	Conrad Lukawski	23	0.09	—
	Independent	Adam Smith	23	0.09	—
	Independent	Stephen Davis	21	0.08	—
	Independent	Marie-Hélène LeBel	17	0.07	—
	Independent	Eliana Rosenblum	17	0.07	—
	Independent	Myriam Beaulieu	16	0.06	—
	Independent	Roger Sherwood	14	0.06	—
	Independent	John The Engineer Turmel	14	0.06	—
	Independent	Jevin David Carroll	12	0.05	—
	Independent	Spencer Rocchi	12	0.05	—
	Independent	Tomas Szuchewycz	12	0.05	—
	Independent	Julie St-Amand	11	0.04	—
	Independent	Mark Dejewski	11	0.04	—
	Independent	Julian Selody	10	0.04	—
	Independent	Ben Teichman	10	0.04	—
	Independent	Mylène Bonneau	9	0.04	—
	Independent	Kerri Hildebrandt	9	0.04	—
	Independent	Line Bélanger	8	0.03	—
	Independent	Alexandra Engering	8	0.03	—
	Independent	Samuel Jubinville	8	0.03	—
	Independent	Jean-Denis Parent Boudreault	7	0.03	—
	Independent	Daniel Gagnon	7	0.03	—
	Independent	Darcy Justin Vanderwater	6	0.02	—
	Independent	Donovan Eckstrom	5	0.02	—
	Independent	Donald Gagnon	5	0.02	—
	Independent	Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville	3	0.01	—
	Independent	Ysack Dupont	2	0.01	—
	Independent	Pascal St-Amand	2	0.01	—
	Independent	Alain Lamontagne	1	0.00	—
Total valid votes			24,814
Total rejected ballots			135	0.54
Turnout			24,949	27.76
Eligible voters			89,863
	Liberal hold		Swing		+4.02
Source: Elections Canada^[6]^[7]

v t e 2021 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Sven Spengemann	25,284	44.94	-3.46	$100,636.46
	Conservative	Michael Ras	21,761	38.68	+1.40	$95,632.95
	New Democratic	Sarah Walji	5,488	9.75	+1.39	$6.00
	People's	Vahid Seyfaie	2,367	4.21	+3.03	$646.34
	Green	Elizabeth Robertson	1,265	2.25	-2.36	$1,660.10
	Rhinoceros	Kayleigh Tahk	94	0.17	-	$8.07
Total valid votes/Expense limit			56,259	99.08	–	$117,701.69
Total rejected ballots			524	0.92	+0.26
Turnout			56,783	63.79	-4.12
Eligible voters			89,017
	Liberal hold		Swing		-2.43
Source: Elections Canada^[8]

v t e 2019 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Sven Spengemann	29,526	48.40	+0.69	$104,588.59
	Conservative	Stella Ambler	22,740	37.28	-3.95	$110,262.85
	New Democratic	Adam Laughton	5,103	8.37	+0.38	none listed
	Green	Cynthia Trentelman	2,814	4.61	+2.26	$2,524.73
	People's	Eugen Vizitiu	717	1.18	-	none listed
	United	Carlton Darby	99	0.16	-	$0.00
Total valid votes			60,999	99.34
Total rejected ballots			407	0.66	+0.21
Turnout			61,406	67.91	-0.79
Eligible voters			90,419
	Liberal hold		Swing		+2.32
Source: Elections Canada^[9]

2015 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Sven Spengemann	28,279	47.71	+10.86	$74,169.40
	Conservative	Stella Ambler	24,435	41.22	-5.68	$221,638.11
	New Democratic	Eric Guerbilsky	4,735	7.99	-4.80	$6,908.86
	Green	Ariana Burgener	1,397	2.36	-0.72	$1,924.23
	Libertarian	Paul Wodworth	316	0.53	-	$1,166.63
	Marxist–Leninist	Dagmar Sullivan	111	0.19	-
Total valid votes/expense limit			59,273	99.54	-	$224,818.71
Total rejected ballots			271	0.46
Turnout			59,544	68.70
Eligible voters			86,675
	Liberal gain from Conservative		Swing		+8.27

2011 federal election redistributed results^[10]
Party		Vote	%
	Conservative	24,269	46.91
	Liberal	19,068	36.85
	New Democratic	6,616	12.79
	Green	1,592	3.08
	Others	195	0.38

Mississauga South (1976-2013)

Graph of election results in Mississauga South (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

2011 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Stella Ambler	22,991	46.48	+6.89
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	18,393	37.18	-7.04
	New Democratic	Farah Kalbouneh	6,354	12.85	+4.00
	Green	Paul Simas	1,532	3.10	-4.25
	Independent	Richard Barrett	194	0.39	–
Total valid votes			49,464	99.62
Total rejected ballots			188	0.38	+0.05
Turnout			49,652	63.21	+3.13
Eligible voters			78,551	–	–
	Conservative gain from Liberal		Swing		+6.97

2008 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	20,518	44.22	+0.05	$70,011
	Conservative	Hugh Arrison	18,366	39.59	-0.50	$81,878
	New Democratic	Matt Turner	4,104	8.85	-1.91	$1,722
	Green	Richard Laushway	3,407	7.34	+2.75	$9,008
Total valid votes/Expense limit			46,395	99.67	$84,179
Total rejected ballots			155	0.33	-0.10
Turnout			46,550	60.08	-8.23
Eligible voters			77,479	–	–
	Liberal hold		Swing		+0.28

2006 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	23,018	44.17	-7.50
	Conservative	Phil Green	20,888	40.09	+6.46
	New Democratic	Mark De Pelham	5,607	10.76	+0.26
	Green	Brendan Tarry	2,393	4.59	+0.61
	Canadian Action	Paul McMurray	129	0.25
	Marxist–Leninist	Dagmar Sullivan	74	0.14	-0.08
Total valid votes			52,109	99.56
Total rejected ballots			229	0.44	+0.06
Turnout			52,338	68.31	+5.24
Eligible voters			76,614	–	–
	Liberal hold		Swing		-6.98

2004 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	24,628	51.67	-0.14
	Conservative	Phil Green	16,027	33.62	-9.14
	New Democratic	Michael James Culkin	5,004	10.50	+6.51
	Green	Neeraj Jain	1,899	3.98
	Marxist–Leninist	Dagmar Sullivan	107	0.22
Total valid votes			47,665	99.62
Total rejected ballots			183	0.38
Turnout			47,848	63.07
Eligible voters			75,866	–	–
	Liberal hold		Swing		+4.50

Note: Conservative vote is compared to the total of the Canadian Alliance vote and Progressive Conservative vote in 2000 election. Change is based on redistributed results.

2000 federal election redistributed results^[11]
Party		Vote	%
	Liberal	22,249	51.81
	Canadian Alliance	10,809	25.17
	Progressive Conservative	7,555	17.59
	New Democratic	1,712	3.99
	Others	620	1.44

2000 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	20,676	51.8	+1.8
	Alliance	Brad Butt	10,139	25.4	+5.8
	Progressive Conservative	David Brown	6,903	17.3	-6.4
	New Democratic	Ken Cole	1,636	4.1	-1.3
	Green	Pamela Murray	516	1.3
	Marxist–Leninist	Tim Sullivan	67	0.2	0.0
Total valid votes			39,937	100.0

Note: Canadian Alliance vote is compared to the Reform vote in 1997 election.

1997 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	21,207	49.9	+3.4
	Progressive Conservative	Dick Barr	10,077	23.7	+0.4
	Reform	Joe Peschisolido	8,307	19.6	-5.6
	New Democratic	Jessica Lott	2,302	5.4	+3.3
	Natural Law	Scott Kay	199	0.5	0.0
	Canadian Action	Aaron Gervais	150	0.4
	Independent	Adrian Earl Crewson	141	0.3
	Marxist–Leninist	Dagmar Sullivan	79	0.2	+0.1
Total valid votes			42,462	100.0

1993 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	21,480	46.6	+11.9
	Reform	John Veenstra	11,591	25.1
	Progressive Conservative	Don Blenkarn	10,763	23.3	-28.6
	New Democratic	Lili V. Weemen	988	2.1	-9.8
	National	Albina Burello	452	1.0
	Libertarian	Richard Barrett	429	0.9	+0.3
	Natural Law	Jeffrey graduate Dods	234	0.5
	Independent	Michael John Charette	124	0.3
	Marxist–Leninist	Dagmar Sullivan	49	0.1
Total valid votes			46,110	100.0

1988 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Progressive Conservative	Don Blenkarn	24,482	51.9	-4.5
	Liberal	Gil Gillespie	16,362	34.7	+5.8
	New Democratic	Sue Craig	5,643	12.0	-2.7
	Rhinoceros	Marc Currie	332	0.7
	Libertarian	Vay Jonynas	297	0.6
	Commonwealth of Canada	Patrick Descoteaux	59	0.1
Total valid votes			47,175	100.0

1984 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Progressive Conservative	Don Blenkarn	32,946	56.4	+15.0
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	16,874	28.9	-11.6
	New Democratic	Norm Jones	8,584	14.7	-2.1
Total valid votes			58,404	100.0

1980 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Progressive Conservative	Don Blenkarn	21,480	41.4	-7.5
	Liberal	Paul Szabo	21,007	40.5	+6.4
	New Democratic	Neil Davis	8,711	16.8	+0.6
	Libertarian	Ian F. Darwin	405	0.8	+0.4
	Independent	Tom Smith	110	0.2	0.0
	Independent	Michael John Charette	78	0.2
	Marxist–Leninist	Tim Sullivan	31	0.1	-0.1
Total valid votes			51,822	100.0

1979 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	Progressive Conservative	Don Blenkarn	26,802	48.9
	Liberal	Peg Holloway	18,710	34.1
	New Democratic	Colin Baynes	8,869	16.2
	Libertarian	Robert Sproule	236	0.4
	Independent	Tom Smith	104	0.2
	Marxist–Leninist	Barbara Nunn	74	0.1
Total valid votes			54,795	100.0

References

"Mississauga—Lakeshore (federal electoral district) (Code 35050) Census Profile". 2011 census. Government of Canada - Statistics Canada. Retrieved March 3, 2011.
federal riding history from the Library of Parliament
2011 Results from Elections Canada
Campaign expense data from Elections Canada

Notes

^ Statistics Canada: 2011
^ Statistics Canada: 2011
^ "Census Profile, 2021 Census, Statistics Canada". February 9, 2022.
^ "New Federal Electoral Map for Ontario". Federal Electoral Districts Redistribution 2022. July 20, 2023. Retrieved August 13, 2023.
^ "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
^ "Election Candidates - By-election - December 12, 2022". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 2, 2022.
^ "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. December 16, 2022. Retrieved December 22, 2022.
^ "forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
^ "forty-third general election 2019 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
^ Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections
^ Election Prediction Project

External links

43°33′14″N 79°36′36″W / 43.554°N 79.610°W / 43.554; -79.610

[1] Statistics Canada: 2011

[2] Statistics Canada: 2011

[3] "Census Profile, 2021 Census, Statistics Canada". February 9, 2022.

[4] "New Federal Electoral Map for Ontario". Federal Electoral Districts Redistribution 2022. July 20, 2023. Retrieved August 13, 2023.

[5] "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.

[6] "Election Candidates - By-election - December 12, 2022". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 2, 2022.

[7] "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. December 16, 2022. Retrieved December 22, 2022.

[8] "forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 12, 2022.

[9] "forty-third general election 2019 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved December 12, 2022.

[10] Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections

[11] Election Prediction Project

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]