Wikipedia

Monaragala Polling Division

The Monaragala Polling Division is a Polling Division in the Monaragala Electoral District, in the Uva Province, Sri Lanka.

Monaragala
Polling Division
Coordinates: 6°54′42″N 81°24′55″E / 6.911641°N 81.415231°E / 6.911641; 81.415231
CountrySri Lanka
ProvinceUva Province, Sri Lanka
Electoral DistrictMonaragala Electoral District
Area
 • Total1,459.8 km2 (563.6 sq mi)
Population
 (2012)[1]
 • Total143,663
 • Density98/km2 (250/sq mi)
ISO 3166 codeEC-20B

Presidential Election Results

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Summary

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The winner of Monaragala has matched the final country result 7 out of 8 times. Hence, Monaragala is a Strong Bellwether for Presidential Elections.

Year Monaragala Monaragala Electoral District MAE[2] % Sri Lanka MAE[3] %
2019 SLPP SLPP 1.48% SLPP 10.79%
2015 UPFA UPFA 0.25% NDF 13.95%
2010 UPFA UPFA 0.34% UPFA 10.55%
2005 UPFA UPFA 0.24% UPFA 6.39%
1999 PA PA 3.01% PA 3.75%
1994 PA PA 1.81% PA 3.08%
1988 UNP UNP 8.06% UNP 3.55%
1982 UNP UNP 2.23% UNP 5.34%
Matches/Mean MAE 7/8 7/8 2.18% 8/8 7.18%

2019 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

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Party Monaragala[4] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
SLPP 59,360 63.99% 208,814 65.34% 6,924,255 52.25%
NDF 28,688 30.93% 92,539 28.95% 5,564,239 41.99%
NMPP 2,537 2.74% 11,235 3.52% 418,553 3.16%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 2,174 2.34% 7,016 2.20% 345,452 2.61%
Valid Votes 92,759 98.87% 319,604 99.07% 13,252,499 98.99%
Rejected Votes 1,059 1.13% 3,000 0.93% 135,452 1.01%
Total Polled 93,818 86.80% 322,604 88.02% 13,387,951 83.71%
Registered Electors 108,090 366,524 15,992,568

2015 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

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Party Monaragala[5] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 50,408 61.69% 172,745 61.45% 5,768,090 47.58%
NDF 30,381 37.18% 105,276 37.45% 6,217,162 51.28%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 927 1.13% 3,095 1.10% 138,200 1.14%
Valid Votes 81,716 98.66% 281,116 98.79% 12,123,452 98.85%
Rejected Votes 1,113 1.34% 3,449 1.21% 140,925 1.15%
Total Polled 82,829 76.92% 284,565 79.90% 12,264,377 78.69%
Registered Electors 107,678 356,146 15,585,942

2010 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

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Party Monaragala[6] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 46,731 68.63% 158,435 69.01% 6,015,934 57.88%
NDF 19,990 29.36% 66,803 29.10% 4,173,185 40.15%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 1,375 2.02% 4,346 1.89% 204,494 1.97%
Valid Votes 68,096 98.92% 229,584 99.02% 10,393,613 99.03%
Rejected Votes 743 1.08% 2,272 0.98% 101,838 0.97%
Total Polled 68,839 71.42% 231,856 73.94% 10,495,451 66.70%
Registered Electors 96,386 313,554 15,734,587

2005 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

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Party Monaragala[7] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 37,575 56.66% 126,094 56.94% 4,887,152 50.29%
UNP 27,754 41.85% 92,244 41.65% 4,706,366 48.43%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 989 1.49% 3,112 1.41% 123,521 1.27%
Valid Votes 66,318 98.67% 221,450 98.82% 9,717,039 98.88%
Rejected Votes 897 1.33% 2,636 1.18% 109,869 1.12%
Total Polled 67,215 76.43% 224,086 78.54% 9,826,908 69.51%
Registered Electors 87,943 285,327 14,136,979

1999 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

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Party Monaragala[8] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 30,055 54.81% 92,049 51.07% 4,312,157 51.12%
UNP 21,049 38.39% 73,695 40.89% 3,602,748 42.71%
JVP 2,465 4.50% 10,456 5.80% 343,927 4.08%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 1,266 2.31% 4,045 2.24% 176,679 2.09%
Valid Votes 54,835 97.36% 180,245 97.74% 8,435,754 97.69%
Rejected Votes 1,489 2.64% 4,161 2.26% 199,536 2.31%
Total Polled 56,324 76.80% 184,406 78.39% 8,635,290 72.17%
Registered Electors 73,336 235,252 11,965,536

1994 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

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Party Monaragala[9] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 31,950 65.06% 96,620 63.20% 4,709,205 62.28%
UNP 15,801 32.18% 52,026 34.03% 2,715,283 35.91%
Ind 2 687 1.40% 1,966 1.29% 58,888 0.78%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 670 1.36% 2,257 1.48% 78,152 1.03%
Valid Votes 49,108 97.12% 152,869 97.46% 7,561,526 98.03%
Rejected Votes 1,456 2.88% 3,977 2.54% 151,706 1.97%
Total Polled 50,564 78.72% 156,846 77.23% 7,713,232 69.12%
Registered Electors 64,229 203,102 11,158,880

1988 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

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Party Monaragala[10] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UNP 1,781 54.68% 16,872 63.21% 2,569,199 50.43%
SLFP 1,366 41.94% 9,123 34.18% 2,289,857 44.95%
SLMP 110 3.38% 697 2.61% 235,701 4.63%
Valid Votes 3,257 96.56% 26,692 96.91% 5,094,754 98.24%
Rejected Votes 116 3.44% 851 3.09% 91,499 1.76%
Total Polled 3,373 6.51% 27,543 16.99% 5,186,256 55.87%
Registered Electors 51,823 162,135 9,283,143

1982 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

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Party Monaragala[11] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UNP 16,836 47.93% 51,264 49.38% 3,450,815 52.93%
SLFP 16,060 45.72% 44,115 42.49% 2,546,348 39.05%
JVP 1,721 4.90% 7,171 6.91% 273,428 4.19%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 509 1.45% 1,271 1.22% 249,460 3.83%
Valid Votes 35,126 98.52% 103,821 98.53% 6,520,156 98.78%
Rejected Votes 526 1.48% 1,553 1.47% 80,470 1.22%
Total Polled 35,652 85.55% 105,374 82.45% 6,600,626 80.15%
Registered Electors 41,675 127,799 8,235,358

Parliamentary Election Results

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Summary

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The winner of Monaragala has matched the final country result 4 out of 7 times. Hence, Monaragala is a Weak Bellwether for Parliamentary Elections.

Year Monaragala Monaragala Electoral District MAE[12] % Sri Lanka MAE[13] %
2015 UPFA UPFA 0.97% UNP 5.12%
2010 UPFA UPFA 1.11% UPFA 11.47%
2004 UPFA UPFA 0.70% UPFA 7.14%
2001 PA PA 2.53% UNP 5.68%
2000 PA PA 3.41% PA 4.66%
1994 PA PA 3.87% PA 4.55%
1989 SLFP UNP 9.70% UNP 11.41%
Matches/Mean MAE 4/7 5/7 3.18% 7/7 7.15%

2015 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

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Party Monaragala[14] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 39,432 51.91% 138,136 52.53% 4,732,664 42.48%
UNP 32,972 43.41% 110,372 41.97% 5,098,916 45.77%
JVP 3,278 4.32% 13,626 5.18% 544,154 4.88%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 276 0.36% 854 0.32% 59,382 0.53%
Valid Votes 75,958 95.98% 262,988 96.59% 11,140,333 95.35%
Rejected Votes 3,181 4.02% 9,291 3.41% 516,926 4.42%
Total Polled 79,139 73.50% 272,279 80.13% 11,684,111 77.66%
Registered Electors 107,678 339,797 15,044,490

2010 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

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Party Monaragala[15] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 32,315 74.58% 120,634 75.64% 4,846,388 60.38%
UNP 8,500 19.62% 28,892 18.12% 2,357,057 29.37%
DNA 2,168 5.00% 9,018 5.65% 441,251 5.50%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 344 0.79% 947 0.59% 34,793 0.43%
Valid Votes 43,327 93.30% 159,491 94.02% 8,026,322 96.03%
Rejected Votes 3,112 6.70% 10,149 5.98% 581,465 6.96%
Total Polled 46,439 48.18% 169,640 54.04% 8,358,246 59.29%
Registered Electors 96,386 313,931 14,097,690

2004 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

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Party Monaragala[16] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 34,503 60.54% 117,456 61.14% 4,223,126 45.70%
UNP 21,593 37.89% 71,067 36.99% 3,486,792 37.73%
JHU 586 1.03% 2,675 1.39% 552,723 5.98%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 314 0.55% 915 0.48% 58,082 0.63%
Valid Votes 56,996 93.23% 192,113 93.75% 9,241,931 94.52%
Rejected Votes 4,142 6.77% 12,816 6.25% 534,452 5.47%
Total Polled 61,138 73.49% 204,929 78.00% 9,777,821 75.74%
Registered Electors 83,194 262,742 12,909,631

2001 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

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Party Monaragala[17] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 26,591 47.39% 81,805 43.67% 3,330,815 37.19%
UNP 23,313 41.55% 80,549 43.00% 4,086,026 45.62%
JVP 5,230 9.32% 21,987 11.74% 815,353 9.10%
NLF 571 1.02% 1,745 0.93% 45,901 0.51%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 405 0.72% 1,247 0.67% 78,691 0.88%
Valid Votes 56,110 91.26% 187,333 92.30% 8,955,844 94.77%
Rejected Votes 5,376 8.74% 15,638 7.70% 494,009 5.23%
Total Polled 61,486 78.79% 202,971 82.08% 9,449,878 76.03%
Registered Electors 78,033 247,280 12,428,762

2000 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

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Party Monaragala[18] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 29,668 53.87% 91,404 49.69% 3,899,329 45.33%
UNP 21,063 38.24% 75,900 41.27% 3,451,765 40.12%
JVP 3,228 5.86% 13,159 7.15% 518,725 6.03%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 1,116 2.03% 3,468 1.89% 263,775 3.07%
Valid Votes 55,075 N/A 183,931 N/A 8,602,617 N/A

1994 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

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Party Monaragala[19] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 27,459 55.40% 77,955 50.40% 3,887,805 48.94%
UNP 20,277 40.91% 67,753 43.81% 3,498,370 44.04%
IND4 1,215 2.45% 6,592 4.26% 6,592 0.08%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 610 1.23% 2,363 1.53% 155,517 1.96%
Valid Votes 49,561 90.29% 154,663 90.46% 7,943,688 95.20%
Rejected Votes 5,328 9.71% 16,305 9.54% 400,395 4.80%
Total Polled 54,889 85.46% 170,968 84.15% 8,344,095 74.75%
Registered Electors 64,229 203,178 11,163,064

1989 Sri Lankan Parliamentary Election

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Party Monaragala[20] Monaragala Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
SLFP 16,700 53.35% 38,640 43.73% 1,785,369 31.90%
UNP 13,141 41.98% 46,313 52.42% 2,838,005 50.71%
USA 990 3.16% 2,149 2.43% 141,983 2.54%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 471 1.50% 1,250 1.41% 304,781 5.45%
Valid Votes 31,302 87.69% 88,352 87.76% 5,596,468 93.87%
Rejected Votes 4,396 12.31% 12,317 12.24% 365,563 6.13%
Total Polled 35,698 69.78% 100,669 62.17% 5,962,031 63.60%
Registered Electors 51,157 161,927 9,374,164

Demographics

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Ethnicity

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The Monaragala Polling Division has a Sinhalese majority (91.3%) . In comparison, the Monaragala Electoral District (which contains the Monaragala Polling Division) has a Sinhalese majority (94.9%) [1]

Ethnicity in Monaragala[1]

  Sinhalese (91.3%)
  Sri Lankan Tamil (4.0%)
  Indian Tamil (3.2%)
  Moor (1.5%)
  Other (0.1%)

Religion

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The Monaragala Polling Division has a Buddhist majority (91.0%) . In comparison, the Monaragala Electoral District (which contains the Monaragala Polling Division) has a Buddhist majority (94.6%) [1]

Religion in Monaragala[1]

  Buddhist (91.0%)
  Hindu (6.7%)
  Muslim (1.5%)
  Other (0.8%)

References

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  1. ^ a b c d e "Census of Population and Housing 2012". statistics.gov.lk. Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka. 2012.
  2. ^ The mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Monaragala and the Monaragala Electoral District. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions.
  3. ^ The mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Monaragala and the country. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions.
  4. ^ "2019 Sri Lankan presidential election Results". elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2019.
  5. ^ "2015 Sri Lankan presidential election Results". elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2015.
  6. ^ "2010 Sri Lankan presidential election Results". elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2010.
  7. ^ "2005 Sri Lankan presidential election Results". elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2005.
  8. ^ "1999 Sri Lankan presidential election Results". elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 1999.
  9. ^ "1994 Sri Lankan presidential election Results". elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 1994.
  10. ^ "1988 Sri Lankan presidential election Results". elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 1988.
  11. ^ "1982 Sri Lankan presidential election Results". elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 1982.
  12. ^ The mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Monaragala and the Monaragala Electoral District. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions.
  13. ^ The mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Monaragala and the country. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions.
  14. ^ "2015 Sri Lankan parliamentary election Results" (PDF). elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2015.
  15. ^ "2010 Sri Lankan parliamentary election Results" (PDF). elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2010.
  16. ^ "2004 Sri Lankan parliamentary election Results" (PDF). elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2004.
  17. ^ "2001 Sri Lankan parliamentary election Results" (PDF). elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2001.
  18. ^ "2000 Sri Lankan parliamentary election Results" (PDF). elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 2000.
  19. ^ "1994 Sri Lankan parliamentary election Results" (PDF). elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 1994.
  20. ^ "1989 Sri Lankan parliamentary election Results" (PDF). elections.gov.lk. Election Commission of Sri Lanka. 1989.
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