Wikipedia

Next Dutch general election

General elections are scheduled to be held in the Netherlands in March 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives, although they may be held at an earlier date if snap elections are called.

Next Dutch general election
Netherlands
← 2023 By 15 March 2028
All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
PVV Geert Wilders 37
GL/PvdA Frans Timmermans 25
VVD Dilan Yeşilgöz 24
NSC Pieter Omtzigt 20
D66 Rob Jetten 9
BBB Caroline van der Plas 7
CDA Henri Bontenbal 5
SP Jimmy Dijk 5
Denk Stephan van Baarle 3
PvdD Esther Ouwehand 3
FvD Thierry Baudet 3
SGP Chris Stoffer 3
CU Mirjam Bikker 3
Volt Laurens Dassen 2
JA21 Joost Eerdmans 1
Incumbent cabinet
Schoof cabinet
PVV–VVD–NSC–BBB

Background

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The 2023 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the fourth Rutte cabinet. Party for Freedom (PVV) became the largest party in the House of Representaties for the first time and then formed a coalition with People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC) and Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB). The Schoof cabinet with the independent Dick Schoof as prime minister was sworn in on 2 July 2024.

Electoral system

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Main article: Elections in the Netherlands

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[1] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[2][3]

Opinion polls

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Graphical summary

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The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages).

 

Seats

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There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		PVV GL–PvdA VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP Denk PvdD FvD SGP CU Volt JA21 Lead Ref
Ipsos I&O 9–11 Nov 2024 2,020 38 26 22 3 12 5 12 8 4 7 3 3 3 3 1 12 [4]
Peil.nl 9 Nov 2024 – 38 25 19 4 11 7 13 6 4 4 5 4 4 4 2 13 [5]
Verian 25–28 Oct 2024 1,604 39 24 23 4 10 7 12 6 4 7 3 3 4 3 1 15 [6]
Ipsos I&O 18–21 Oct 2024 2,143 38 25 21 4 11 5 11 7 3 8 4 3 4 4 2 13 [7]
Peil.nl 12 Oct 2024 – 37 26 20 4 11 7 13 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 11 [8]
Peil.nl 28 Sep 2024 – 40 26 19 5 11 7 12 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 14 [9]
Ipsos I&O 20–23 Sep 2024 1,950 41 25 18 6 10 5 11 5 4 7 4 3 4 5 2 16 [10]
Verian 20–23 Sep 2024 1,607 41 27 23 3 9 7 10 6 3 5 4 3 4 4 1 14 [11]
Ipsos I&O 13–16 Sep 2024 2,208 42 24 20 7 11 5 10 6 3 6 5 2 4 4 1 18 [12]
Peil.nl 14 Sep 2024 5,000+ 38 26 20 7 11 7 11 6 4 4 3 4 4 4 1 12 [13]
Verian 23–26 Aug 2024 1,594 39 27 23 9 11 6 8 7 4 4 3 3 3 3 0 12 [14]
Ipsos 26–29 Jul 2024 1,016 40 27 21 11 10 8 9 3 4 5 3 3 2 3 1 13 [15]
Peil.nl 5–6 Jul 2024 – 38 25 19 8 11 8 11 6 4 4 3 4 4 4 1 13 [16]
2 Jul 2024 The Schoof cabinet is sworn in
Peil.nl 28–29 Jun 2024 – 41 26 17 8 10 8 11 6 4 4 3 4 3 4 1 15 [17]
Ipsos 21–24 Jun 2024 1,017 44 27 20 12 12 6 6 3 3 5 3 3 2 3 1 17 [18]
I&O Research 14–17 Jun 2024 1,979 42 27 18 7 11 7 9 5 3 7 3 4 3 4 0 15 [19]
6 Jun 2024 2024 European Parliament election in the Netherlands
Peil.nl 5–6 Jun 2024 – 43 25 19 8 10 8 10 5 3 4 4 3 3 4 1 18 [20]
Peil.nl 31 May – 1 Jun 2024 – 42 25 19 7 10 8 10 6 3 4 5 3 3 4 1 17 [21]
Ipsos 24–27 May 2024 2,048 48 24 19 11 10 7 6 3 3 6 3 3 3 3 1 24 [22]
I&O Research 17–21 May 2024 2,141 46 26 17 8 10 7 7 5 3 5 3 4 4 4 1 20 [23]
Peil.nl 17–18 May 2024 – 45 25 18 7 10 8 10 6 3 4 4 3 3 3 1 20 [24]
I&O Research 9–12 May 2024 1,839 47 26 18 8 10 6 7 5 2 5 3 4 4 4 1 21 [25]
Peil.nl 3–4 May 2024 – 46 25 17 8 10 8 9 7 3 3 4 3 3 3 1 21 [26]
Ipsos 26–29 Apr 2024 1,011 45 23 20 11 11 8 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 1 22 [27]
Peil.nl 19 Apr 2024 8,500 50 25 15 8 10 7 9 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 25 [28]
Ipsos 22–25 Mar 2024 1,016 49 24 20 11 10 6 6 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 25 [29]
Peil.nl 22 Mar 2024 – 49 25 15 9 10 7 9 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 24 [30]
Peil.nl 8 Mar 2024 – 49 25 15 10 10 7 9 7 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 24 [30]
Ipsos 23–26 Feb 2024 1,022 49 25 19 11 11 8 6 3 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 24 [31]
I&O Research 9–12 Feb 2024 2,752 49 25 17 9 9 7 7 5 2 5 3 4 3 4 1 24 [32]
Peil.nl 9 Feb 2024 6,000 52 25 13 11 10 8 8 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 27 [33]
Peil.nl 2–3 Feb 2024 4,500+ 50 25 13 15 10 7 7 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 25 [34]
Ipsos 26–29 Jan 2024 1,025 45 25 19 18 11 6 5 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 20 [35]
Peil.nl 19–20 Jan 2024 5,500+ 49 23 12 17 10 9 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 26 [36]
Peil.nl 22 Dec 2023 – 48 22 13 18 11 9 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 26 [37]
Ipsos 15–18 Dec 2023 1,052 47 22 18 19 9 8 4 3 4 5 3 3 3 2 0 25 [38]
13 Dec 2023 Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader[39]
I&O Research 8–11 Dec 2023 2,952 43 23 16 20 10 8 5 5 2 5 3 3 3 4 0 20 [40]
Peil.nl 1–2 Dec 2023 – 42 22 16 19 11 10 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 20 [41]
2023 election 22 Nov 2023 – 37 25 24 20 9 7 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 12

Vote share

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Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		PVV GL–PvdA VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP Denk PvdD FvD SGP CU Volt JA21 Others Lead Ref
Ipsos I&O 9–11 Nov 2024 2,020 23.7% 16.2% 13.9% 2.3% 7.6% 3.7% 7.3% 5.2% 2.7% 4.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 0.8% – 7.5% [42]
Ipsos I&O 18–21 Oct 2024 2,143 24.8% 16.7% 13.5% 2.7% 7.3% 3.6% 7.1% 4.8% 2.4% 5.2% 2.9% 2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 1.4% – 8.1% [7]
Ipsos I&O 20–23 Sep 2024 1,950 25.9% 16.1% 11.8% 4.0% 6.9% 3.8% 7.4% 3.8% 2.6% 5.0% 3.0% 2.3% 2.5% 3.4% 1.4% – 9.8% [10]
Ipsos I&O 13–16 Sep 2024 2,208 27.0% 15.7% 13.2% 4.4% 7.4% 3.8% 6.2% 4.4% 2.1% 4.3% 3.1% 1.8% 2.8% 3.0% 0.7% – 11.3% [12]
Ipsos 26–29 Jul 2024 1,016 25.8% 17.3% 13.4% 7.3% 6.5% 5.2% 5.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.9% 8.5% [43]
Ipsos 21–24 Jun 2024 1,017 27.7% 17.3% 13.1% 7.7% 7.8% 3.8% 4.4% 2.5% 2.3% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.7% 10.4% [44]
I&O Research 14–17 Jun 2024 1,979 27.3% 17.6% 12.0% 4.6% 7.4% 4.8% 6.3% 3.2% 1.9% 4.5% 2.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 9.7% [19]
Peil.nl 5–6 Jun 2024 – 26.7% 16.0% 12.3% 5.2% 6.6% 5.3% 6.6% 3.4% 2.2% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 2.0% 2.7% 1.0% 1.6% 10.7% [45]
Ipsos 24–27 May 2024 2,048 30.5% 15.2% 12.1% 7.2% 6.8% 5.0% 4.1% 2.4% 2.4% 4.2% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 15.3% [46]
I&O Research 17–21 May 2024 2,141 29.6% 16.6% 11.5% 5.7% 6.7% 4.6% 4.8% 3.5% 2.0% 3.3% 2.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 14.0% [23]
I&O Research 9–12 May 2024 1,839 30.0% 16.7% 11.8% 5.1% 6.4% 4.1% 4.9% 3.6% 1.8% 3.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 14.5% [25]
Ipsos 26–29 Apr 2024 1,011 28.7% 14.7% 12.7% 7.4% 6.9% 5.5% 3.6% 2.9% 2.8% 3.6% 2.8% 2.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 0.9% 14.0% [47]
Ipsos 22–25 Mar 2024 1,016 31.1% 15.6% 12.6% 7.0% 6.6% 4.2% 4.1% 2.8% 2.3% 3.1% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 15.5% [48]
Ipsos 23–26 Feb 2024 1,022 31.1% 15.9% 12.4% 7.0% 7.0% 5.4% 4.3% 2.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.1% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 15.2% [49]
I&O Research 9–12 Feb 2024 2,752 31.0% 16.5% 11.1% 6.3% 6.3% 4.5% 4.5% 3.2% 1.8% 3.2% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.6% 14.5% [32]
Ipsos 26–29 Jan 2024 1,025 28.4% 16.0% 12.2% 11.9% 6.9% 4.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 12.4% [50]
Ipsos 15–18 Dec 2023 1,052 29.8% 13.8% 11.5% 12.4% 6.1% 5.1% 2.6% 2.5% 3.1% 3.3% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% 16.0% [51]
I&O Research 8–11 Dec 2023 2,952 27.4% 14.6% 10.4% 12.5% 6.6% 5.5% 3.4% 3.6% 1.8% 3.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.7% 12.8% [32]
2023 election 22 Nov 2023 – 23.49% 15.75% 15.14% 12.88% 6.29% 4.65% 3.31% 3.15% 2.37% 2.25% 2.23% 2.08% 2.04% 1.71% 0.68% 1.88% 7.74%

Notes

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References

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  1. ^ "Zetelverdeling over partijen". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  2. ^ Nederland, Parlementsverkiezingen, 15 maart 2017: Eindrapport (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 7 June 2017. Archived from the original on 24 October 2020. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  3. ^ "Zetelverdeling over kandidaten". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  4. ^ Kanne, Peter; Schelde, Asher van der (13 November 2024). "Ontevreden maar honkvaste kiezers op rechts en links" [Dissatisfied but loyal voters on the right and left]. Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 13 November 2024.
  5. ^ Hond, Maurice de (10 November 2024). "Ook bij vertrouwenscijfers zien we toenemende polarisatie" [We also see increasing polarization in confidence figures]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 10 November 2024.
  6. ^ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (29 October 2024). "Iets minder vertrouwen in Geert Wilders na asieldeal kabinet, weinig verschuivingen in zetelpeiling" [Slightly less confidence in Geert Wilders after the cabinet's asylum deal, few shifts in seat polls]. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 29 October 2024.
  7. ^ a b Heck, Sjoerd van; Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (23 October 2024). "Ipsos I&O politieke peiling" [Ipsos I&O political poll] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 25 October 2024.
  8. ^ Hond, Maurice de (13 October 2024). "Electorale dynamiek/dynamiet" [Electoral dynamics/dynamite]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 13 October 2024.
  9. ^ Hond, Maurice de (28 September 2024). "Electorale patstelling na Algemene Beschouwingen" [Electoral stalemate after General Considerations]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 30 September 2024.
  10. ^ a b Heck, Sjoerd van; Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (27 September 2024). "Ipsos I&O politieke peiling" [Ipsos I&O political poll] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 27 September 2024.
  11. ^ "NSC verliest fors in zetelpeiling, veel kiezers willen andere rol voor Pieter Omtzigt". EenVandaag (in Dutch). 24 September 2024. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
  12. ^ a b "Afnemend enthousiasme kabinet Schoof heeft nog geen electorale consequenties" [Decreasing enthusiasm in cabinet Schoof has no electoral consequences yet]. Ipsos I&O. 17 September 2024.
  13. ^ Hond, Maurice de (15 September 2024). "Oordeel over regering na het regeerprogamma" [Judgement over government after government program]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 15 September 2024.
  14. ^ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (27 August 2024). "Coalitie op 77 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, verlies komt vooral door teleurstelling in NSC" [Coalition at 77 seats in new seat poll, loss results mostly from disappointment with NSC]. EenVandaag.
  15. ^ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (30 July 2024). "PVV daalt verder in zetelpeiling na installatie van het nieuwe kabinet, CDA wint" [PVV drops further in seat poll after installation of new cabinet, CDA wins]. EenVandaag.
  16. ^ Hond, Maurice de. "Na het spraakmakende debat over de regeringsverklaring – Peilingen" (in Dutch). Retrieved 6 July 2024.
  17. ^ Hond, Maurice de (29 June 2024). "De peiling voor het bordes". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
  18. ^ Kester, Jeroen (25 June 2024). "PVV verliest in nieuwe zetelpeiling na bekendmaking ministers, GroenLinks-PvdA in de plus". EenVandaag.
  19. ^ a b Kanne, Peter (22 June 2024). "Enthousiasme over nieuw kabinet afgenomen". Ipsos I&O.
  20. ^ Hond, Maurice de (8 June 2024). "Peiling Tweede Kamerzetels: PVV 43, PvdA-GroenLinks 25". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
  21. ^ Hond, Maurice de (1 June 2024). "Reactie op Schoof als Premier". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
  22. ^ "PVV wint na hoofdlijnenakkoord in zetelpeiling, geen effect bij andere partijen". EenVandaag. 28 May 2024.
  23. ^ a b "Kiezers voorzichtig hoopvol over nieuw kabinet". Ipsos I&O. 23 May 2024.
  24. ^ Hond, Maurice de (18 May 2024). "De electorale reacties op het hoofdlijnen-akkoord". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
  25. ^ a b "Weinig vertrouwen in welslagen formatie". Ipsos I&O. 15 May 2024.
  26. ^ Hond, Maurice de (4 May 2024). "Winst PVV neemt iets af". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
  27. ^ "Politieke barometer week 18". Ipsos. 30 April 2024.
  28. ^ Hond, Maurice de (21 April 2024). "Electorale formatie obstipatie". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
  29. ^ "Kiezers formerende partijen oneens over financiën, NSC weet verloren stemmers niet terug te halen in nieuwe zetelpeiling". EenVandaag. 26 March 2024.
  30. ^ a b Hond, Maurice de (23 March 2024). "Twee derde hoopt dat formatie succesvol verloopt".
  31. ^ "NSC met 11 zetels op dieptepunt in zetelpeiling, kiezers willen dat Omtzigt alsnog meewerkt aan rechtse coalitie". EenVandaag. 27 February 2024.
  32. ^ a b c Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (13 February 2024). "Politieke peiling februari 2024" (PDF). Ipsos I&O.
  33. ^ Hond, Maurice de (11 February 2024). "NSC en Omtzigt zakken fors terug na breuk".
  34. ^ Hond, Maurice de (3 February 2024). "PVV 50 zetels, NSC zakt langzaam weg".
  35. ^ "Helft vindt dat formatie te traag gaat, PVV blijft ondertussen met afstand grootste partij in zetelpeiling". EenVandaag. 30 January 2024.
  36. ^ Hond, Maurice de (20 January 2024). "Historische peiling: PVV 4 keer zo groot als de VVD".
  37. ^ Hond, Maurice de. "Recordscores PVV en VVD – Peilingen".
  38. ^ "PVV stijgt verder door naar historische 47 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, VVD hard onderuit". EenVandaag. 19 December 2023.
  39. ^ "Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader". NU.nl (in Dutch). 13 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  40. ^ "I&O-zetelpeiling: groei PVV zet door". I&O Research. 14 December 2023.
  41. ^ "Enorme electorale schommelingen na de verkiezingen". 2 December 2023.
  42. ^ Heck, Sjoerd van; Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (13 November 2024). "Ipsos I&O politieke peiling" [Ipsos I&O political poll] (PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 13 November 2024.
  43. ^ "Politieke barometer week 31". Ipsos. 31 July 2024.
  44. ^ "Politieke barometer week 26". Ipsos. 27 June 2024.
  45. ^ Hond, Maurice de (8 June 2024). "Peiling Tweede Kamerzetels: PVV 43, PvdA-GroenLinks 25". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
  46. ^ "Politieke barometer week 22". Ipsos. 30 May 2024.
  47. ^ "Politieke barometer week 18". Ipsos. 30 April 2024.
  48. ^ "Politieke barometer week 13". Ipsos. 27 March 2024.
  49. ^ "Politieke barometer week 9". Ipsos. 28 February 2024.
  50. ^ "Politieke barometer week 5". Ipsos. 31 January 2024.
  51. ^ "Politieke barometer week 51". Ipsos. 21 December 2023.
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