2019 North Macedonian presidential election

Presidential elections were held in North Macedonia in 2019. Three candidates were on the ballot in the first round, held on 21 April: Stevo Pendarovski, supported by the ruling coalition led by the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, including the Democratic Union for Integration;[1] Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova of the leading opposition party VMRO-DPMNE, and Blerim Reka, an independent supported by Albanian opposition parties Alliance for Albanians and Besa Movement.[2] The first round did not result in an absolute majority for any candidate, with Pendarovski receiving the most votes. In the second round held on 5 May, Pendarovski defeated Siljanovska-Davkova with 54% of the vote.[3]

2019 North Macedonian presidential election

← 2014 21 April 2019 (first round)
5 May 2019 (second round)
2024 →
Turnout41.67% (first round)
46.65% (second round)
 
Nominee Stevo Pendarovski Gordana Siljanovska
Party SDSM VMRO-DPMNE
Popular vote 435,656 377,446
Percentage 53.58% 46.42%

Second round results by municipality

President before election

Gjorge Ivanov
VMRO-DPMNE

Elected President

Stevo Pendarovski
SDSM

Incumbent President Gjorge Ivanov was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in office, having previously been elected in 2009 and 2014.

Background

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The elections were the first in North Macedonia after the Prespa agreement on the naming dispute, signed on 17 June 2018. A referendum was held on 30 September, in which a majority of voters approved the agreement, although turnout was far below the quorum required to validate the result, mainly because of an organized boycott of the Anti-Prespa agreement bloc. The Assembly subsequently approved the change of the country's name to "North Macedonia" on 11 January 2019, and Greece subsequently ratified the agreement and the accession protocol for NATO.

Incumbent President Gjorge Ivanov was a vocal opponent of the name change and refused to sign the laws and amendments on the matter. However, Assembly Speaker Talat Xhaferi claimed that his signature was enough to enforce the change.[4]

The name change had the support of the government coalition formed by the Social Democrats (SDSM) and the ethnic Albanian Democratic Union for Integration. The nationalist VMRO-DPMNE coalition led by Hristijan Mickoski was in favor of NATO integration but against the name change, although the change was approved in the Assembly with at least four VMRO-DPMNE MPs voting in favour.[5]

After her nomination, VMRO-DPMNE candidate Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova had promised to initiate a second referendum and restore the old name to the country if she won.[6]

Electoral system

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The President of North Macedonia is elected using a modified two-round system; a candidate can only be elected in the first round of voting if they receive the equivalent of over 50% of the vote from all registered voters.[7] In the second round, voter turnout must be at least 40% for the result to be deemed valid.[8] Before 2009, the constitution required turnout in the second round to be 50% to validate the result. However, the XXXI amendment approved on 9 January 2009 lowered the threshold to 40%,[8] as the then-government feared the trend of reducing turnouts would lead to presidential elections being frequently invalidated. In the 2009 presidential elections, second round turnout was just 42.6%.[9]

The constitution mandates that the President must be over 40 years of age and have lived in the country for ten of the last fifteen years.

Opinion polls

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Before and between the voting rounds, several opinion polls were conducted. The percentages of the polls below are related to only those voters who declared that they would vote for a certain candidate.

First round

Date(s) conducted Polling firm/Client Sample size/Type Pendarovski/SDSM Siljanovska/VMRO-DPMNE Reka/AA, Besa Lead
8-14 Apr 2019 Rating Agency 1,112/Face-to-face 45.5 39.5 15.0 6.0
7-11 Apr 2019 IDSCS/Telma&MCMS 967/Telephone 44.1 38.1 17.8 6.0
4-10 Apr 2019 M-Prospect/MRT 1,197/Telephone 43.2 38.8 18.0 4.4
10 Mar-10 Apr 2019 Samerimpex Impulses/MCMS 1,147/Online 50.4 41.4 8.2 9.0
23-27 Mar 2019 IPIS/Sitel 1,110/Telephone 45.9 42.7 11.3 3.2
13-19 Mar 2019 M-Prospect/Telma&MCMS 1,001/Telephone 42.9 38.4 18.7 4.5

Second round

Date(s) conducted Polling firm/Client Sample size/Type Pendarovski/SDSM Siljanovska/VMRO-DPMNE Lead
13-19 Mar 2019 M-Prospect/Telma&MCMS 1,001/Telephone 55.3 44.7 10.6

Results

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To win in the first round, a candidate would have had to receive at least 904,066 votes, equivalent to 50% of the number of registered voters.

CandidatePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Stevo PendarovskiSocial Democratic Union of Macedonia322,58144.75435,65653.58
Gordana Siljanovska-DavkovaVMRO-DPMNE318,34144.16377,44646.42
Blerim RekaIndependent79,88811.08
Total720,810100.00813,102100.00
Valid votes720,81095.66813,10296.40
Invalid/blank votes32,6974.3430,4063.60
Total votes753,507100.00843,508100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,808,13141.671,808,13146.65
Source: OCSE

References

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  1. ^ "Втор обид на Пендаровски, овојпат како консензуален кандидат". Deutsche Welle (in Macedonian). 2 March 2019. Retrieved 14 April 2022.
  2. ^ "Професорот Блерим Река независен претседателски кандидат, ќе го поддржат Алијанса за Албанците и Беса". Сакам Да Кажам (in Macedonian). 28 February 2019. Retrieved 14 April 2022.
  3. ^ Supporter of North Macedonia Name Change Wins Presidency. New York Times, 6 May 2019.
  4. ^ "Ivanov: Amnesty is a blackmail for votes for the Prespes Agreement". Independent Balkan News Agency. 28 December 2018.
  5. ^ "Deputies agree historic name change for Macedonia". France 24. 11 January 2019.
  6. ^ Силјановска ќе игра „втор референдум“ за Договорот од Преспа! 18.02.2019; Deutsche Welle.
  7. ^ Polls Open in Macedonia Presidential Elections Balkan Insight, 13 April 2014
  8. ^ a b Amendment XXXI Constitution of North Macedonia
  9. ^ Anna Fruhstorfer & Michael Hein (2016) Constitutional Politics in Central and Eastern Europe: From Post-Socialist Transition to the Reform of Political Systems Springer, p235