Oil megaprojects

Oil megaprojects are large oil field projects.

Summary of megaprojects

Definition of megaproject: 20,000 barrels per day (3,200 m3/d) of new liquid fuel capacity. ^{[citation needed]}

Megaprojects predicted for individual years

Overview	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020

Application to oil supply forecasting

Number of oil fields discovered per decades grouped by average flow rates (left) and corresponding oil volumes (right) in giga-barrels (Gb). Data taken from the annexe B of Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons.^[1]

A series of project tabulations and analyses by Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, have presented a more pessimistic picture of future oil supply. In a 2004 report,^[2] based on an analysis of new projects over 100,000 barrels per day (16,000 m³/d), he argued that although ample supply might be available in the near-term, after 2007 "the volumes of new production for this period are well below likely requirements." By 2006,^[3] although "the outlook for future supply appears somewhat brighter than even six months ago", nonetheless, if "all the factors reducing new capacity come into play, markets will remain tight and prices high. Only if new capacity flows into the system rather more rapidly than of late, will there be any chance of rebuilding spare capacity and softening prices."

The smallest fields, even in aggregate, do not contribute a large fraction of the total. For example, a relatively small number of giant and super-giant oilfields are providing almost half of the world production.^[1]

Decline rates

The most important variable is the average decline rate for Fields in Production (FIP) which is difficult to assess.^[4]^[5]^[6]

References

^ ^a ^b Simmons, Matthew (2005). Twilight in the desert : the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-73876-3.
^ "Oil field mega projects" (PDF). 2004.
^ "Prices holding steady, despite massive planned capacity additions" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2006-06-28.
^ Lawrence Eagles (2006). "Medium Term Oil Market Report" (PDF). OECD/International Transport Forum Roundtable.
^ John Gerdes (2007). "Modest Non-OPEC Supply Growth Underpins $60+ Oil Price" (PDF). SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ Peter M. Jackson (2007). "Finding the Critical Numbers: What Are the Real Decline Rates for Global Oil Production?". CERA.

Oil megaprojects

Contents

Summary of megaprojects

Megaprojects predicted for individual years

Application to oil supply forecasting

Decline rates

See also

References

Further reading