In the run up to the 1979 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the Constituent Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 15 June 1977, to the day the next election was held, on 1 March 1979.
Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Electoral polling
editNationwide polling
editVoting intention estimates
editThe table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
|
|
|
PNV | 
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 general election | 1 Mar 1979 | — | 68.0 | 34.8 168 |
30.4 121 |
10.8 23 |
6.1 9 |
[a] | 2.7 8 |
1.6 7 |
2.1 1 |
4.4 |
| Government[1] | 1 Mar 1979 | ? | ? | 34.6 168/172 |
29.8 114/118 |
10.8 25 |
5.5 8 |
[a] | 2.6 10 |
1.6 8 |
2.0 1 |
4.8 |
| SFGPP/Ya[2] | 26 Feb 1979 | 16,817 | ? | 33.1 166 |
31.9 132 |
8.2 25 |
6.3 7 |
[a] | – | ? 8 |
– | 1.2 |
| Sofemasa/El País[b][3][4][5] | 19–21 Feb 1979 | 16,869 | 77.7 | 32.9 153 |
35.0 140 |
11.0 22 |
6.3 9 |
[a] | 1.8 5 |
1.7 7 |
2.3 2 |
2.1 |
| PSOE[6] | 18 Feb 1979 | ? | 65 | 28.0– 32.0 |
31.0– 35.0 |
– | – | [a] | – | – | – | 3.0 |
| Equipo Eidos/Europa Press[7] | 12–14 Feb 1979 | 3,700 | ? | 34.0 167 |
32.0 132 |
12.0 21 |
7.0 14 |
[a] | 2.9 7 |
1.6 7 |
– | 2.0 |
| RNC/ABC[b][8] | 7 Feb 1979 | 2,999 | 73 | 30.6 | 32.3 | 12.9 | 11.3 | [a] | – | 2.7 | – | 1.7 |
| PSOE[6] | 1 Feb 1979 | ? | 65 | 27.0– 32.0 |
32.0– 37.0 |
– | – | [a] | – | – | – | 5.0 |
| Sofemasa/El País[9][10] | 30–31 Jan 1979 | 2,000 | ? | 30.6 | 33.5 | 9.3 | 3.7 | [a] | – | – | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| ICSA–Gallup/El Periódico[11] | 2–29 Nov 1978 | 2,200 | ? | 27.3 | 38.7 | 10.8 | 3.8 | [a] | – | – | – | 11.4 |
| Sofemasa/El País[12][13] | 9–11 Jun 1978 | 2,000 | ? | 28.5 | 33.6 | 9.7 | 7.1 | [a] | – | – | – | 5.1 |
| Diario 16[14] | 10 Mar 1978 | ? | 79 | 29.0– 31.0 |
38.0– 40.0 |
6.0– 8.0 |
6.0– 8.0 |
6.0– 8.0 |
– | – | – | 9.0 |
| 1977 general election | 15 Jun 1977 | — | 78.8 | 34.4 165 |
29.3 118 |
9.3 20 |
8.3 16 |
4.5 6 |
2.8 11 |
1.6 8 |
0.5 0 |
5.1 |
Voting preferences
editThe table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PNV |
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 general election | 1 Mar 1979 | — | 23.4 | 20.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | [a] | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | — | 32.0 | 4.4 |
| Sofemasa/El País[3] | 19–21 Feb 1979 | 16,869 | 21.5 | 22.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | [a] | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 23.2 | 11.4 | 1.4 |
| CIS[15] | 1–10 Feb 1979 | 24,395 | 14.6 | 14.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | [a] | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 54.2 | 4.3 | 0.6 |
| RNC/ABC[8] | 7 Feb 1979 | 2,999 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | [a] | – | 1.7 | – | 38.0 | 1.0 | |
| ICSA–Gallup/ABC[8] | 7 Feb 1979 | 2,600 | 19.0 | 29.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | [a] | [c] | – | 1.0 | 30.0 | 10.0 | |
| CIS[16] | 25 Jan–3 Feb 1979 | 25,516 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | [a] | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 55.7 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| Sofemasa/El País[9] | 30–31 Jan 1979 | 2,000 | 18.4 | 21.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | [a] | – | – | 1.1 | 32.3 | 8.8 | 2.6 |
| CIS[17] | 19–22 Jan 1979 | 1,188 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | [a] | 0.5 | 0.8 | – | 50.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| CIS[18] | 1 Jan 1979 | 1,170 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | [a] | 1.0 | 0.0 | – | 51.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| CIS[19] | 17–19 Dec 1978 | 1,188 | 24.0 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | [a] | 1.0 | 2.0 | – | 18.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 |
| CIS[20] | 10–12 Dec 1978 | 987 | 23.5 | 19.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | [a] | 0.7 | 0.4 | – | 41.7 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| CIS[21] | 1 Dec 1978 | 1,196 | 21.2 | 19.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | [a] | 0.8 | 0.8 | – | 39.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| CIS[22] | 20–23 Nov 1978 | 1,166 | 18.7 | 18.8 | 4.2 | 2.7 | [a] | 0.6 | 1.5 | – | 45.2 | 4.2 | 0.1 |
| CIS[23] | 13–16 Nov 1978 | 1,183 | 18.4 | 19.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | [a] | 0.3 | 0.7 | – | 46.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 |
| CIS[24] | 6–9 Nov 1978 | 1,189 | 20.4 | 18.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | [a] | 1.2 | 1.3 | – | 42.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 |
| CIS[25] | 1 Nov 1978 | 5,716 | 18.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | [a] | 1.0 | 0.0 | – | 46.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| CIS[26] | 23–26 Oct 1978 | 1,169 | 17.2 | 19.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | [a] | 0.3 | 1.5 | – | 42.4 | 8.0 | 2.0 |
| CIS[27] | 16–18 Oct 1978 | 1,190 | 20.2 | 17.5 | 4.2 | 3.7 | [a] | 1.6 | 1.4 | – | 37.2 | 9.3 | 2.7 |
| CIS[28] | 9–11 Oct 1978 | 1,196 | 19.2 | 21.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | [a] | 0.1 | 0.8 | – | 40.8 | 7.4 | 1.8 |
| CIS[29] | 27–30 Sep 1978 | 1,184 | 16.3 | 19.3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | [a] | 0.8 | 0.8 | – | 40.3 | 9.2 | 3.0 |
| CIS[30] | 18–26 Sep 1978 | 1,216 | 13.8 | 27.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | [a] | 1.9 | 1.6 | – | 22.8 | 12.4 | 13.4 |
| CIS[31] | 24–26 Jul 1978 | 1,181 | 20.1 | 24.7 | 6.4 | 3.3 | [a] | 0.8 | 1.4 | – | 25.0 | 13.8 | 4.6 |
| CIS[32] | 10–12 Jul 1978 | 5,350 | 15.2 | 22.5 | 6.2 | 5.0 | [a] | – | 1.1 | – | 39.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 |
| CIS[33] | 1 Jul 1978 | 1,199 | 17.0 | 31.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | [a] | 2.0 | 1.0 | – | 24.0 | 10.0 | 14.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones[34][35] | 1–16 Feb 1978 | 2,035 | 17.2 | 27.8 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | – | 33.6 | 10.6 | |
| CIS[36] | 1 Jan 1978 | 5,653 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | – | 36.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 |
| ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones[34] | 1–16 Dec 1977 | 2,037 | 17.8 | 28.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | – | 30.2 | 10.4 | |
| ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones[37] | 18 Nov 1977 | 2,134 | 18.2 | 30.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | – | 26.5 | 12.3 | |
| ICSA–Gallup/Diario 16[38] | 17–29 Oct 1977 | 2,134 | 17.0 | 32.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 24.3 | 15.4 | |
| ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones[34] | 3–14 Oct 1977 | 1,944 | 17.3 | 31.4 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | – | 25.4 | 14.1 | |
| CIS[39] | 17–18 Sep 1977 | 1,554 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | – | – | 31.0 | Tie | |
| 1977 general election | 15 Jun 1977 | — | 26.8 | 22.8 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | — | 21.2 | 4.0 |
Notes
editReferences
edit- ^ "El Gobierno estima en 170 los escaños de UCD y en 116 los del PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 2 March 1979.
- ^ "UCD, 166 escaños; PSOE, 132" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 23 February 1979.
- ^ a b "Apretada victoria de UCD frente a los socialistas, que gana posiciones". El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
- ^ "Izquierdas y derechas se reparten el electorado casi al cincuenta por ciento" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 27 February 1979.
- ^ "Votos y posibles escaños en cada provincia" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 27 February 1979.
- ^ a b "El PSOE se prepara para gobernar" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 23 February 1979.
- ^ "UCD aventaja al PSOE en dos puntos". ABC (in Spanish). 22 February 1979.
- ^ a b c "Dos sondeos electorales en ABC". ABC (in Spanish). 7 February 1979.
- ^ a b "Equilibrio entre UCD y PSOE, con ligera ventaja socialista". El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
- ^ "Centristas y socialistas se distancian del resto de las fuerzas políticas" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
- ^ "Ante las municipales: PSOE, 38,7%; UCD, 27,3%". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 17 December 1978.
- ^ "El PSOE aventaja a UCD". El País (in Spanish). 15 June 1978.
- ^ "Aumenta la tendencia hacia la izquierda y existen muchos indecisos" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 15 June 1978.
- ^ "¿Crisis del "suarismo"?" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 10 March 1978.
- ^ "Preelectoral elecciones generales 1979 (II) (Estudio nº 1183. Febrero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 10 February 1979.
- ^ "Preelectoral elecciones generales 1979 (I) (Estudio nº 1181. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 3 February 1979.
- ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (V) (Estudio nº 1182. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 January 1979.
- ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (IV) (Estudio nº 1179. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1979.
- ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (III) (Estudio nº 1178. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 1978.
- ^ "Postreferéndum sobre la Constitución (Estudio nº 1177. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 12 December 1978.
- ^ "Constitución y elecciones (IX) (Estudio nº 1176. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 December 1978.
- ^ "Constitución y elecciones (VIII) (Estudio nº 1175. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 23 November 1978.
- ^ "Constitución y elecciones (VII) (Estudio nº 1172. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 16 November 1978.
- ^ "Constitución y elecciones (VI) (Estudio nº 1170. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 November 1978.
- ^ "Cuestiones de actualidad política (Estudio nº 1165. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 November 1978.
- ^ "Constitución y elecciones (V) (Estudio nº 1168. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 October 1978.
- ^ "Relaciones internacionales (Estudio nº 1167. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 18 October 1978.
- ^ "Constitución y elecciones (IV) (Estudio nº 1166. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 October 1978.
- ^ "Constitución y elecciones (III) (Estudio nº 1160. Septiembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 30 September 1978.
- ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (II) (Estudio nº 1164. Septiembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 September 1978.
- ^ "Constitución y elecciones (II) (Estudio nº 1163. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 July 1978.
- ^ "Partidos políticos (Estudio nº 1157. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 12 July 1978.
- ^ "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (I) (Estudio nº 1161. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 1978.
- ^ a b c "Suben los indecisos y baja la izquierda" (PDF). Informaciones (in Spanish). 28 February 1978.
- ^ "Un tercio de la población no sabría a qué partido votar". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 28 February 1978.
- ^ "Cuestiones de actualidad (XIV) (Estudio nº 1141. Enero 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1978.
- ^ "Avance socialista ante las elecciones municipales" (PDF). Informaciones (in Spanish). 18 November 1977.
- ^ "El 57 por 100 de los españoles, de izquierdas" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 4 January 1978.
- ^ "Indulto y amnistía (III) (Estudio nº 1139. Septiembre 1977)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 18 September 1977.