Wikipedia

Opinion polling for the 2016 Irish general election

Numerous polls of support for political parties in Ireland were taken between the 2011 general election and the 2016 general election, held on Friday, 26 February 2016. The article also contains polls taken after the election while a government was being formed.

Two main tables of opinion polls are shown below. The top table lists opinion polls taken in 2016, the election year, and includes all political parties with Dáil representation, plus the Green Party. The second table, for polls from the last general election in 2011 up to 2015, does not break out Renua or the Social Democrats, which were both founded in 2015.

2016

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Color key:

  Exit poll

Date Source/Link Polling Agency FG Lab FF SF AAA -PBP RI SD GP Others
26 February 2016 General election — 25.5 6.6 24.3 13.8 3.9 2.2 3.0 2.7 17.9
26 February 2016 RTÉ[p 1] Behaviour & Attitudes 24.8 7.1 21.1 16.0 4.7 2.4 3.7 3.6 16.6
26 February 2016 The Irish Times[p 2] Ipsos MRBI 26.1 7.8 22.9 14.9 3.6 2.3 2.8 3.5 16.1
23 February 2016 Paddy Power[p 3][p 4] Red C 30 7 20 15 3 2 4 3 16[nb 1]
22 February 2016 The Irish Times[p 5] Ipsos MRBI 28 6 23 15 3 2 3 2 18[nb 2]
21 February 2016 Sunday Independent[p 6][p 7] Millward Brown 27 6 23 19 5 2 4 2 14[nb 3]
21 February 2016 The Sunday Business Post[p 8][p 9] Red C 30 8 18 16 3 2 4 4 15[nb 4]
21 February 2016 The Sunday Times[p 10][p 11] Behaviour & Attitudes 30 4 22 15 5 3 3 3 15[nb 5]
16 February 2016 The Irish Sun[p 12] Red C 26 9 19 17 2 2 3 4 18[nb 6]
13 February 2016 The Sunday Business Post[p 13][p 14] Red C 28 8 18 20 3 1 4 2 16[nb 7]
10 February 2016 Paddy Power[p 15][p 16] Red C 30 8 18 17 4 2 3 2 16[nb 8]
6 February 2016 The Sunday Times[p 17][p 18] Behaviour & Attitudes 28 8 20 17 3 2 4 3 15[nb 9]
6 February 2016 The Sunday Business Post[p 17][p 19] Red C 31 10 17 17 3 1 3 2 16[nb 10]
6 February 2016 Sunday Independent[p 20][p 21] Millward Brown 27 6 22 21 3 1 1 1 18
4 February 2016 The Irish Times[p 22] Ipsos MRBI 28 7 21 19 4 1 2 2 16[nb 11]
30 January 2016 The Sunday Business Post[p 23] Red C 29 10 17 19 3 1 2 3 16
16 January 2016 The Sunday Business Post[p 24] Red C 30 9 19 19 3 2 1 2 15
16 January 2016 The Sunday Times[p 25][p 26] Behaviour & Attitudes 31 6 20 16 3 2 1 3 20[nb 12]
25 February 2011 General election — 36.1 19.4 17.4 9.9 2.2[nb 13] — — 1.8 14.2

 

2011–2015

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Graphical summary

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Poll results

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Date Source/Link Polling Agency FG Lab FF SF GP AAA-PBP Others
19 December 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 27] Red C 32 9 17 19 2 3 18[nb 14]
13 December 2015 The Sunday Times[p 28] Behaviour & Attitudes 31 8 19 17 3 4 18[nb 15]
2 December 2015 Paddy Power[p 29] Red C 28 9 20 18 2 4 19[nb 16]
26 November 2015 The Irish Times[p 30] Ipsos MRBI 30 7 19 21 2 3 18[nb 17]
21 November 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 31] Red C 31 7 19 18 2 4 19[nb 18]
14 November 2015 The Sunday Times[p 32] Behaviour & Attitudes 26 7 20 21 1 9 16[nb 19]
7 November 2015 Sunday Independent[p 33] Millward Brown 29 7 24 21 1 — 19[nb 20]
24 October 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 34][p 35] Red C 30 7 20 16 2 1 24[nb 21]
18 October 2015 The Sunday Times[p 36] Behaviour & Attitudes 24 8 19 19 1 7 21[nb 22]
23 September 2015 The Irish Times[p 37] Ipsos MRBI 28 8 20 19 1 3 21[nb 23]
12 September 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 38] Red C 28 10 18 16 — — 28
15 August 2015 The Sunday Times[p 39] Behaviour & Attitudes 27 6 20 19 2 5 23[nb 24]
30 July 2015 Sunday Independent[p 40] Millward Brown 24 7 23 21 1 3[nb 25] 23[nb 26]
26 July 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 41] Red C 25 8 18 18 2 1 28
18 July 2015 The Sunday Times[p 42] Behaviour & Attitudes 24 8 18 17 — — 32
27 June 2015 Sunday Independent[p 43] Millward Brown 29 6 23 21 1 3 17[nb 20]
24 June 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 43][p 44] Red C 28 7 20 18 2[nb 27] — 25[nb 27]
15 June 2015 The Sunday Times[p 45][p 46] Behaviour & Attitudes 24 9 21 19 2[nb 28] 26[nb 28]
30 May 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 47] Red C 28 10 19 21 3 — 19[nb 20]
14 May 2015 The Irish Times[p 48] Ipsos MRBI 28 7 20 21 — — 24
26 April 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 49][p 50] Red C 25 8 19 22 1[nb 29] —[nb 30] 24[nb 29]
5 April 2015 Sunday Independent[p 51] Millward Brown 25 8 19 24 3 2 18[nb 31]
28 March 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 52][p 53] Red C 27 10 18 17 2[nb 32] — 26[nb 32]
26 March 2015 The Irish Times[p 54] Ipsos MRBI 24 7 17 24 3 — 25
11 March 2015 The Sunday Times[p 55] Behaviour & Attitudes 27 9 18 19 3 — 23
21 February 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 56] Red C 24 7 18 21 3 — 27[nb 33]
14 February 2015 Sunday Independent[p 57][p 58] Millward Brown 25 6 19 26 1[nb 34] — 23[nb 34]
19 January 2015 The Sunday Business Post[p 59] Red C 24 9 19 20 2 — 26
13 January 2015 RTÉ (Today with Sean O'Rourke)[p 60] Red C 24 8 18 21 1 — 28[nb 35]
21 December 2014 The Sunday Times[p 61] Behaviour & Attitudes 24 5 18 22 1 — 29
18 December 2014 Sunday Independent[p 62] Millward Brown 22 5 18 21 2 — 32
17 December 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 63] Red C 21 6 19 24 2 — 28
4 December 2014 The Irish Times[p 64] Ipsos MRBI 19 6 21 22 3 — 29
23 November 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 65] Red C 22 8 18 22 3 — 27
2 November 2014 Sunday Independent[p 66] Millward Brown 22 7 20 26 2 — 23
26 October 2014 The Sunday Times[p 67] Behaviour & Attitudes 25 9 18 19 3 — 25
26 October 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 65] Red C 26 8 18 20 2 — 28
9 October 2014 The Irish Times[p 68] Ipsos MRBI 24 9 20 24 — — 23
21 September 2014 Sunday Independent[p 69] Millward Brown 25 9 21 22 1 — 23
14 September 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 70] Red C 28 8 18 23 2 — 23
17 August 2014 The Sunday Times[p 71] Behaviour & Attitudes 24 14 18 19 1 — 24
3 August 2014 Sunday Independent[p 72] Millward Brown 25 7 20 24 1 — 23
29 June 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 73] Red C 25 7 18 22 2 — 26
12 June 2014 Paddy Power[p 74] Red C 22 4 18 22 2 — 32
7 June 2014 Sunday Independent[p 75] Millward Brown 20 5 20 26 2 2 25
23 May 2014 European election — 22.3 5.3 22.3 19.5 4.9 3.3[nb 36] 23.9
23 May 2014 Local elections — 24.0 7.2 25.3 15.2 1.6 2.9[nb 36] 25.5
19 May 2014 Sunday Independent[p 76] Millward Brown 20 6 21 23 2 — 27
1 May 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 77] Red C 25 11 21 18 — — 25
19 April 2014 Sunday Independent[p 78][p 79] Millward Brown 29 6 22 20 2 — 21
19 April 2014 The Sunday Times[p 79][p 80] Behaviour & Attitudes 21 9 20 20 4 — 26
3 April 2014 The Irish Times[p 81] Ipsos MRBI 25 8 25 21 — — 21
30 March 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 82] Red C 26 9 22 21 — — 22
28 February 2014 Sunday Independent[p 83] Millward Brown 27 8 21 22 2 — 20
22 February 2014 The Sunday Times[p 84] Behaviour & Attitudes 30 9 19 18 — — 24
22 February 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 84] Red C 29 11 22 16 — — 22
24 January 2014 Sunday Independent[p 85] Millward Brown 30 12 26 16 1 — 15
22 January 2014 The Sunday Business Post[p 85] Red C 27 9 23 16 — — 25
9 January 2014 Paddy Power[p 86] Red C 28 10 22 18 — — 22
15 December 2013 The Sunday Times[p 87] Behaviour & Attitudes 30 11 21 15 3[nb 37] — 21[nb 37]
10 December 2013 The Irish Times[p 88] Ipsos MRBI 30 9 22 21 —[nb 38] — 18
24 November 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 90] Red C 29 12 22 15 2[nb 39] — 20[nb 39]
17 November 2013 Sunday Independent[p 91] Millward Brown 27 9 24 21 1 — 18
7 November 2013 Paddy Power[p 92] Red C 25 9 24 16 2 — 24
23 October 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 93] Red C 29 9 23 17 — — 23
1 October 2013 The Irish Times[p 94] Ipsos MRBI 26 6 22 23 2 — 21
28 September 2013 Sunday Independent[p 95] Millward Brown Lansdowne 28 10 27 19 1 — 15
21 September 2013 The Sunday Times[p 96][p 97] Behaviour & Attitudes 25 11 21 18 3 — 23
16 September 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 98] Red C 27 10 23 17 4 — 19
1 September 2013 Sunday Independent[p 99] Millward Brown Lansdowne 27 8 25 21 1 — 18
18 August 2013 Sunday Independent[p 100] Millward Brown Lansdowne 29 8 28 19 1 — 15
7 July 2013 Sunday Independent[p 101] Millward Brown Lansdowne 26 8 29 19 — — 19
30 June 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 102] Red C 28 12 22 17 — — 21
14 June 2013 The Irish Times[p 103] Ipsos MRBI 24 9 26 21 2 — 18
13 June 2013 Paddy Power[p 103] Red C 30 10 24 16 — — 20
2 June 2013 Sunday Independent[p 104] Millward Brown Lansdowne 27 11 27 17 — — 18
26 May 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 105] Red C 26 11 26 16 — — 21
19 May 2013 Sunday Independent[p 106] Millward Brown Lansdowne 23 12 26 19 1 — 18
28 April 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 28 11 25 16 2 — 18
14 April 2013 Sunday Independent[p 108] Millward Brown Lansdowne 24 12 27 16 2 — 18
31 March 2013 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 27 7 23 15 2 — 25
24 March 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 28 13 24 14 1 — 20
17 March 2013 Sunday Independent[p 108] Millward Brown Lansdowne 25 9 29 20 1 — 16
2 March 2013 Irish Independent[p 108] Millward Brown Lansdowne 24 11 23 21 2 — 20
24 February 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 28 12 26 16 2 — 16
18 February 2013 Irish Independent[p 108] Millward Brown Lansdowne 25 13 27 20 1 — 15
8 February 2013 The Irish Times[p 110] Ipsos MRBI 25 10 26 18 1 — 20
27 January 2013 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 28 11 21 19 2 — 19
21 January 2013 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 26 11 24 19 3 — 18
10 January 2013 Paddy Power[p 111] Red C 29 13 21 16 3 — 18
2 December 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 28 14 20 17 3 — 18
18 November 2012 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 30 12 22 14 3 — 19
28 October 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 34 13 19 17 2 — 15
18 October 2012 The Irish Times[p 112] Ipsos MRBI 31 12 21 20 2 — 14
23 September 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 32 14 18 18 2 — 16
16 September 2012 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 31 14 16 18 2 — 19
24 June 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 32 15 18 16 2 — 17
27 May 2012 Sunday Independent[p 113] Millward Brown Lansdowne 36 12 17 20 1 — 14
26 May 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 30 15 18 19 2 — 16
25 May 2012 The Irish Times[p 114] Ipsos MRBI 32 10 17 24 2 — 15
23 May 2012 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 33 14 16 17 2 — 18
18 May 2012 Paddy Power[p 115] Red C 32 13 18 20 2 — 15
18 May 2012 Irish Independent[p 113] Millward Brown Lansdowne 34 15 16 17 1 — 17
13 May 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 29 13 19 21 2 — 16
29 April 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 32 14 17 19 2 1 15
17 April 2012 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 33 14 15 16 5 — 18
20 April 2012 The Irish Times[p 116] Ipsos MRBI 33 13 14 21 2 — 17
30 March 2012 Paddy Power[p 115] Red C 35 16 15 14 2 — 18
25 March 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 34 15 16 18 2 — 15
4 March 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 30 16 17 18 2 — 17
20 February 2012 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 33 13 16 20 2 — 16
29 January 2012 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 30 14 18 17 3 — 18
12 January 2012 Paddy Power[p 115] Red C 33 16 17 14 2 — 18
12 December 2011 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 29 12 18 19 3 — 18
4 December 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 32 15 18 15 1 — 19
25 October 2011 The Irish Times[p 117] Ipsos MRBI 36 19 15 15 1 — 14
23 October 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 31 17 14 16 2 — 20
18 October 2011 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 35 16 14 17 1 — 16
7 October 2011 The Irish Times[p 118] Ipsos MRBI 35 17 16 18 2 — 12
2 October 2011 The Sunday Times[p 109] Behaviour & Attitudes 34 16 16 14 3 — 17
25 September 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 33 16 15 15 2 — 19
17 September 2011 Sunday Independent[p 119] Millward Brown Lansdowne 40 20 10 11 2 — 17
4 September 2011 The Sunday Times[p 120] Behaviour & Attitudes 44 12 15 13 2 — 12
21 July 2011 The Irish Times[p 121] Ipsos MRBI 38 18 18 10 2 — 14
22 June 2011 Irish Independent[p 113] Millward Brown Lansdowne 42 19 16 11 1 — 12
29 May 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 41 19 16 11 3 — 10
10 April 2011 The Sunday Business Post[p 107] Red C 39 18 16 11 2 — 14
25 February 2011 General election — 36.1 19.4 17.4 9.9 1.8 2.2[nb 40] 14.2

Polling Companies

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Four companies carry out national and sectoral opinion polls in Ireland. They use different methodologies, which can have a bearing on overall accuracy.

Normally the sample size for a national poll is in the very low thousands with a margin of error of ~ 3%

The methodologies used by the four companies are:

Polling Agency Methodology Own Statement on Sampling (with page number)
BandA Face To Face(In Home) [t 1] (Page 3)
IpSoS/MRBI Telephone(Random Autodial) [t 2] (Description section at bottom)
Millward Brown Face To Face (In Home) [t 3] (Page 2)
RedC Telephone(Random Autodial) [t 4] (Page 2)

Footnotes

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  1. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%
  2. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4% .Others also includes 3% who indicated they would vote Independent/Other but were undecided as to precisely whom.
  3. ^ Millward Brown does not break out Independent Alliance
  4. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  5. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Workers' Party 1%
  6. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%
  7. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  8. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4%
  9. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 4%, Workers' Party 1%
  10. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%
  11. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%
  12. ^ "Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, and Independent Alliance 3%
  13. ^ Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1% in 2011, they have combined since the 2014 Local Elections, where they ran separately, as the Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit Party abbreviated initially as AAA-PBP and latterly as AAA only.
  14. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 2% and Renua 2%
  15. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 1%, Workers' Party 1%, Independent Alliance 2% and Renua 1%
  16. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 3%, Independent Alliance 2% and Renua 1%
  17. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 2%
  18. ^ "Others" includes Social Democrats 3% and Renua 1%
  19. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 2%, Renua 1% and Social Democrats 1%
  20. ^ a b c "Others" includes Renua 1%
  21. ^ "Others" includes Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  22. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 5%, Renua 2%, Social Democrats 1% and Workers' Party 1%
  23. ^ "Others" includes Independent Alliance 3%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  24. ^ "Others" includes Workers' Party 2%, Renua 2% and Social Democrats 1%
  25. ^ 2% reported as Socialist Party
  26. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1% and Social Democrats 0.5%
  27. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 1%. The "Others" figure of 27% reported by RTÉ also included 2% Greens.[p 44])
  28. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 1%. The "Others" figure of 28% reported by RTÉ also included 2% Greens.[p 46])
  29. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua (1%) and the Socialist Party (less than 1%). The "Others" figure of 26% reported by RTÉ also included 1% Greens.[p 50])
  30. ^ Less than 1%, included in "Others"
  31. ^ "Others" includes Renua 2%
  32. ^ a b "Others" includes Renua 2%. The "Others" figure of 28% reported by Breaking News also included 2% Greens.[p 53])
  33. ^ "Others" includes Renua 1% (The reported "others" figure of 30% also included 3% Greens.[p 56])
  34. ^ a b The "Others" figure of 24% reported by The Irish Times also included 1% Greens.[p 58])
  35. ^ "Others" includes 1% for Renua, which had not been named at that point.
  36. ^ a b Contested as separate parties
  37. ^ a b Others figure of 24% includes 3% for the Green Party
  38. ^ Less than 1%; included in "Others".[p 89]
  39. ^ a b "Independents and other parties" had 19% of the core vote, adjusted to 22% excluding undecided voters. The Green Party was 2 percentage points of the 19% core vote.[p 90]
  40. ^ Socialist Party 1.2% and People Before Profit 1%

References

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  1. ^ "RTÉ Exit Poll: Bad news for Govt parties (SAMPLING 26-02-2016)". RTÉ. 26 February 2016. Retrieved 27 February 2016.
  2. ^ "Irish Times exit poll shows Coalition well short of overall majority (SAMPLING 26/02)". Irish Times. 26 February 2016. Retrieved 26 February 2016.
  3. ^ "Fine Gael hold steady Labour on wane (SAMPLING 18/02-21/02)". Paddy Power. 23 February 2016. Retrieved 23 February 2016.
  4. ^ "RedC Research Full Data 23 Feb" (PDF). Red C Research. Retrieved 24 February 2016.
  5. ^ "FF rise in poll as Government stagnates (SAMPLING 19/02-20/02)". Irish Times. 21 February 2016. Retrieved 21 February 2016.
  6. ^ "Fianna Fáil Make Major Gains on Fine Gael in Latest Poll (SAMPLING 17/02-18/02)". Sunday Independent. 20 February 2016. Retrieved 20 February 2016.
  7. ^ "Some Subtle Shifts" (PDF). Millward Brown. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 February 2016. Retrieved 25 February 2016.
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  9. ^ "RedC Research Full Data 21 Feb" (PDF). Red C Research. Retrieved 22 February 2016.
  10. ^ "Leaked B&A Poll Sees Labour Support Plummet to 4% (Sunday Times is 'bitterly disappointed' at leak and begins thorough investigation)(SAMPLING 15/02-16/02)". The Irish Times.
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