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Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections

(Redirected from Opinion polling for the next Belgian federal election)

In the run up to the 2024 Belgian federal election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Belgium. The results of nationwide polls are usually numerically split into the three Belgian regions: Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia. Federal seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives are presented together under these regional polls. The federal election was part of a group of elections which also include the regional elections and the European elections held on the same day. Some polls might be undefined voting intentions without differentiating between the elections.

Flanders

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Federal

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The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region.

Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size N‑VA VB cd&v Open Vld Vooruit Groen PVDA Others Lead Gov. Opp. Blank/ no vote/ no answer
9 June 2024 Federal election[1] 25.6% 21.8% 12.8% 8.8% 13.0% 7.5% 8.2% 2.3% 3.8% 42.1% 57.9%
3 – 4 June 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[2] 2,000 21.0% 25.8% 12.3% 7.0% 15.6% 6.1% 10.2% 2.0% 4.8% 41.0% 59.0%
28 – 31 May 2024 Cluster17 RTL[3] 1,140 19.6% 27.2% 12.0% 9.2% 13.0% 6.9% 9.3% 2.8% 7.6% 41.1% 58.2%
14 – 20 May 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[4] 2,000 20.6% 26.8% 12.2% 8.2% 14.3% 6.6% 8.9% 2.4% 6.2% 41.3% 58.7%
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar La Libre Belgique / RTBF[5] 1016 20.9% 26.0% 11.6% 10.4% 11.5% 6.0% 12.2% 1.4% 5.1% 39.5% 60.5%
11 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] 1,000 20.4% 27.4% 13.1% 8.3% 11.4% 7.8% 9.5% 2.1% 7.0% 40.6% 59.4%
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar Knack / Le Vif[7] 1,077 20.6% 25.5% 10.5% 8.0% 14.7% 8.7% 10.9% 1.1% 4.9% 41.8% 58.2%
9 – 22 Jan 2024 iVox Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL[8] 2,000 22.7% 26.6% 12.3% 7.6% 12.8% 7.4% 9.3% 1.4% 3.9% 42.6% 57.4%
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[9] 1,000 22.0% 25.1% 11.7% 7.1% 13.8% 9.2% 9.7% 1.4% 3.1% 41.8% 58.2%
23 Nov – 28 Nov 2023 iVox Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL[10] 1,000 22.0% 26.5% 11.6% 8.8% 14.3% 7.1% 8.7% 0.9% 4.5% 41.7% 58.3%
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique / RTBF[11] 566 20.4% 23.3% 13.9% 7.9% 16.1% 8.2% 8.8% 1.4% 2.9% 46.1% 53.9%
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[12] 1,000 20.2% 25.8% 12.2% 8.2% 15.4% 6.4% 9.5% 2.3% 5.6% 42.2% 57.8% 7%
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] 1,000 21.8% 22.7% 10.7% 8.3% 16.8% 7.6% 10.3% 1.8% 0.9% 43.4% 56.6%
20 – 27 Mar 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[14] 1,000 21.6% 25.0% 11.8% 9.2% 15.5% 7.4% 8.0% 1.5% 3.4% 43.9% 56.1%
16 – 29 Jan 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique[15] 514 21.5% 24.8% 9.6% 12.1% 15.2% 10.3% 5.7% 0.9% 3.3% 46.9% 53.1%
21 – 29 Nov 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[16] 1,001 22.0% 25.5% 9.6% 9.3% 16.1% 8.7% 7.4% 1.4% 3.5% 43.7% 56.3%
7 – 13 Sep 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] 1,000 21.5% 21.6% 9.9% 11.1% 16.8% 8.6% 8.7% 1.8% 0.1% 46.4% 53.6%
6 – 14 Jun 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] 1,008 24.9% 22.6% 10.2% 9.3% 14.8% 7.9% 8.5% 1.8% 2.3% 42.2% 57.8%
15 – 22 Mar 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[19] 1,007 23.4% 22.2% 11.3% 9.8% 14.2% 8.4% 8.9% 1.8% 1.2% 43.7% 56.3%
1 – 8 Dec 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[20] 988 21.6% 24.5% 10.7% 10.3% 13.9% 8.4% 8.9% 1.7% 2.9% 43.3% 56.7%
7 – 14 Sep 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[21] 1,000 21.2% 23.6% 12.6% 11.4% 12.3% 9.6% 7.7% 1.6% 2.4% 45.9% 54.1%
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] 1,002 21.8% 26.1% 10.0% 11.4% 12.6% 8.3% 7.8% 2.0% 4.3% 42.3% 57.7%
29 Mar – 19 Apr 2021 TNS VRT / De Standaard[23] 1,908 21.5% 24.7% 10.0% 11.5% 12.0% 10.9% 7.9% 1.4% 3.2% 44.4% 55.5%
4 – 9 Mar 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[24] 1,006 20.0% 23.6% 13.2% 12.9% 12.3% 8.2% 8.2% 1.6% 3.6% 46.6% 53.4%
2 – 8 Dec 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[25] 1,007 19.9% 26.3% 12.4% 12.0% 13.6% 8.1% 6.6% 1.1% 6.4% 46.1% 53.9%
2 – 8 Oct 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[26] 1,001 22.2% 27.1% 10.6% 10.9% 13.7% 7.6% 6.0% 1.9% 4.9% 42.8% 57.2%
1 Oct 2020 De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone)
10 – 15 Jun 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[27] 951 20.0% 27.7% 11.8% 10.0% 12.5% 9.4% 7.3% 1.3% 7.7% 43.7% 56.3%
9 – 28 Apr 2020 TNS VRT / De Standaard[28] 2,040 20.3% 24.5% 11.9% 11.6% 11.0% 11.1% 8.2% 1.4% 4.2% 45.6% 54.4%
4 – 9 Mar 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen[29] 958 20.7% 28.0% 11.7% 10.3% 9.6% 8.8% 9.3% 1.9% 7.3% 40.4% 59.6%
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[30] 999 22.1% 27.3% 11.4% 9.9% 8.9% 10.7% 8.4% 1.3% 5.2% 40.9% 59.1%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[31] 1,000 22.7% 24.9% 11.7% 13.3% 8.4% 11.0% 6.2% 1.8% 2.2% 44.4% 55.6%
26 May 2019 Federal election 25.5% 18.6% 14.2% 13.5% 10.8% 9.8% 5.6% 1.9% 6.9% 48.3% 51.6%

Regional

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Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size N‑VA VB cd&v Open Vld Vooruit Groen PVDA Others Lead Gov. Opp. Blank/ no vote/ no answer
23 Apr – 3 May 2024 iVox OVV[32] 1,579 21.4% 26.3% 12.5% 7.7% 13.5% 8.2% 8.8% 1.7% 4.9% 41.9% 58.1%
8 – 22 Jan 2024 Kantar VRT / De Standaard[33] 2,029 18.9% 27.8% 11.3% 9.0% 13.7% 8.2% 10.7% 0.5% 8.9% 39.2% 60.8% 10.1%
23 Nov – 28 Nov 2023 iVox Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL[34] 1,000 21.3% 27.5% 12.9% 8.7% 13.2% 6.9% 8.5% 0.9% 6.2% 42.9% 57.1%
13 – 23 Mar 2023 VUB, UA VRT / De Standaard[35] 2,092 21.0% 24.6% 9.2% 9.3% 16.9% 7.9% 9.5% 1.6% 3.6% 39.5% 60.5%
14 – 31 Mar 2022 VUB, UA VRT / De Standaard[36] 2,064 22.4% 22.9% 8.7% 10.2% 15.5% 9.4% 9.1% 1.8% 0.5% 41.3% 58.7%
26 May 2019 Regional election 24.8% 18.5% 15.4% 13.1% 10.4% 10.1% 5.3% 2.4% 6.3% 53.3% 46.7%

Wallonia

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The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region.

 
Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size PS MR Ecolo PTB LE DéFI Others Lead Gov. Opp.
28 – 31 May 2024 Cluster17 RTL[37] 1,000 23.9% 23.0% 8.0% 16.0% 17.9% 4.0% 7.2% 0.9% 54.9% 45.1%
14 – 20 May 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[4] 1,000 22.6% 22.6% 8.8% 14.5% 18.1% 4.3% 9.1% 0.0% 54.0% 46.0%
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar La Libre Belgique, RTBF[5] 1004 25.4% 20.8% 12.7% 16.0% 13.9% 4.2% 7.0% 4.6% 58.9% 41.1%
11 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] 1,000 21.3% 20.5% 11.9% 14.9% 16.8% 4.8% 9.8% 0.8% 53.7% 46.3%
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar Knack / Le Vif[7] 1,004 24.3% 19.9% 13.8% 18.4% 13.2% 4.1% 6.4% 3.1% 58.0% 42.0%
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[9] 1,000 23.9% 20.0% 14.0% 14.0% 13.8% 3.9% 10.4%[nb 1] 3.9% 57.9% 42.1%
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique, RTBF[11] 436 27.2% 20.6% 11.6% 19.2% 11.1% 4.5% 5.8% 6.6% 59.4% 41.6%
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[12] 1,000 21.8% 19.7% 14.9% 19.8% 13.8% 2.7% 7.3%[nb 2] 2.0% 56.4% 43.6%
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] 1,000 25.7% 19.8% 12.7% 18.9% 10.3% 3.8% 8.8% 5.9% 58.2% 41.8%
20 – 27 Mar 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[14] 1,000 25.5% 18.5% 12.8% 17.6% 11.1% 4.9% 9.6% 7.0% 56.8% 43.2%
16 – 29 Jan 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique[15] 502 25.8% 19.7% 11.3% 20.1% 9.3% 5.4% 8.5% 5.7% 56.8% 43.2%
21 – 29 Nov 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[16] 1,002 23.7% 20.4% 13.1% 17.9% 9.1% 5.3% 10.5% 3.3% 57.2% 42.8%
7 – 13 Sep 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] 1,002 22.9% 22.0% 13.6% 18.4% 9.1% 5.6% 8.0% 0.9% 58.5% 41.5%
6 – 14 Jun 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] 1,008 25.3% 19.2% 14.4% 19.1% 8.8% 4.2% 9.0% 5.9% 58.9% 41.1%
15 – 22 Mar 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[19] 1,009 22.4% 20.1% 15.0% 19.7% 9.5% 3.7% 9.4% 2.3% 57.7% 42.5%
1 – 8 Dec 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[20] 961 24.9% 22.3% 15.5% 18.2% 8.0% 4.2% 9.9% 2.6% 62.7% 37.3%
7 – 14 Sep 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[21] 930 21.4% 20.3% 16.7% 18.7% 10.0% 5.1% 7.8% 1.1% 58.4% 41.6%
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] 992 24.0% 18.7% 15.0% 19.1% 10.8% 5.1% 7.3% 4.9% 57.7% 42.3%
4 – 9 Mar 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[39] 958 22.8% 20.1% 16.4% 19.0% 8.7% 3.9% 9.1% 2.7% 59.3% 40.7%
2 – 8 Dec 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[40] 995 23.2% 20.6% 15.6% 17.2% 10.3% 3.7% 9.7% 2.6% 59.4% 40.6%
2 – 8 Oct 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[26] 1,001 21.1% 19.2% 17.8% 18.9% 9.7% 3.8% 9.5% 1.9% 58.1% 41.9%
1 Oct 2020 De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone)
10 – 15 Jun 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[27] 986 23.7% 20.5% 15.1% 18.7% 8.1% 4.7% 9.2% 3.2% 59.3% 40.7%
4 – 9 Mar 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen[29] 974 25.5% 19.6% 15.5% 18.6% 7.5% 5.1% 8.2% 5.9% 60.6% 39.4%
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[30] 983 23.8% 20.5% 17.2% 16.5% 8.8% 4.7% 8.5% 3.3% 61.5% 38.5%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[31] 992 22.9% 22.6% 16.2% 15.5% 8.5% 5.0% 9.3% 0.3% 61.7% 38.3%
26 May 2019 Federal election 26.1% 20.5% 14.9% 13.8% 10.7% 4.1% 9.9% [nb 3] 5.6% 61.5% 38.5%

Brussels

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The graph and the table below show polling results in the Brussels Region (which may be part of a larger, nationwide poll). In September 2022, only polling results for Francophone parties were published for polls conducted for VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir.

 
Scatter plot with moving average showing the results of the polls in the Brussels Region since the last federal elections.
Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size Ecolo PS MR PTB-
PVDA 		DéFI LE N‑VA Open Vld VB cd&v Groen Vooruit Others Lead Gov. Opp.
28 – 31 May 2024 Cluster17 RTL[41] 501 11.6% 15.0% 22.9% 19.8% 7.0% 7.8% 3.2% 3.1%
14 – 20 May 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[4] 600 12.5% 15.2% 23.3% 19.8% 7.2% 7.7% 3.5%
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar La Libre Belgique, RTBF[5] 807 15.5% 14.2% 22.9% 15.4% 7.4% 5.4% 3.8% 1.2% 5.0% 1.6% 4.6% 1.0% 2.0% 7.4% 61.0% 39.0%
11 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[6] 600 14.7% 15.4% 21.8% 17.5% 8.8% 6.9% 2.2% 2.2% 3.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 3.9% 4.3% 57.7% 42.3%
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar Knack / Le Vif[7] 600 14.2% 13.5% 17.9% 20.8% 7.8% 5.4% 3.8% 1.9% 5.2% 1.2% 5.3% 1.3% 1.3% 2.9% 55.3% 44.7%
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[9] 600 16.8% 15.7% 18.1% 19.3% 9.1% 7.2% 3.4% 2.0% 3.0% 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 2.3% 1.2% 55.7% 44.3%
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique, RTBF[11] 545 13.0% 18.8% 19.7% 16.3% 6.9% 5.1% 5.3% 3.3% 4.2% 0.8% 4.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 61.1% 38.9%
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[12] 600 17.9% 18.1% 21.9% 15.3% 8.0% 6.5% 3.6% 1.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.8% 1.8% 2.0% 3.8% 62.3% 37.7%
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[13] 600 18.1% 18.6% 19.9% 17.6% 8.3% 4.3% 2.9% 1.4% 3.1% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 3.0% 1.3% 60.8% 39.2%
20 – 27 Mar 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[42] 600 15.7% 16.8% 19.8% 19.4% 10.2% 5.1% 3.0% 0.8% 3.0% 0.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 0.4% 57.4% 42.6%
16 – 29 Jan 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique[15] 493 16.0% 18.0% 16.8% 16.7% 9.6% 2.9% 4.5% 1.2% 2.6% 1.0% 6.1% 1.6% 3.1% 1.2% 60.7% 39.3%
21 – 29 Nov 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[42] 601 13.0% 21.6% 20.3% 16.1% 10.4% 6.1% 2.8% 0.8% 2.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 3.3% 1.3% 58.8% 41.2%
7 – 13 Sep 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] 600 15.8% 22.7% 21.2% 12.7% 9.6% 3.8% 1.6%
6 – 14 Jun 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] 536 18.0% 19.1% 22.0% 13.6% 10.8% 3.8% 2.8% 2.0% 2.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 2.8% 2.9% 64.0% 36.0%
15 – 22 Mar 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[19] 485 20.3% 15.1% 19.9% 16.4% 10.8% 4.9% 3.5% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 61.1% 38.9%
1 – 8 Dec 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[43] 485 19.3% 15.1% 17.4% 15.1% 11.3% 5.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 5.2% 1.9% 56.9% 43.1%
7 – 14 Sep 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[44] 485 19.1% 18.6% 18.5% 15.1% 10.4% 3.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 2.5% 0.8% 4.2% 0.5% 62.5% 37.7%
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[22] 523 18.0% 17.6% 17.9% 15.0% 11.1% 5.3% 4.1% 2.5% 3.1% 0.7% 2.8% 0.5% 1.4% 0.1% 60.0% 40.0%
4 – 9 Mar 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[39] 557 18.2% 16.8% 16.4% 16.0% 11.4% 4.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.2% 1.5% 2.4% 1.1% 3.3% 1.4% 59.2% 40.8%
2 – 8 Dec 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[40] 533 19.5% 16.8% 15.0% 15.1% 11.5% 5.0% 4.9% 1.9% 3.7% 0.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6% 2.7% 57.7% 42.3%
2 – 8 Oct 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[26] 593 21.6% 19.1% 14.0% 12.1% 11.3% 3.2% 4.8% 2.4% 3.7% 1.7% 3.2% 2.3% 0.6% 2.5% 64.3% 35.7%
1 October 2020 De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone)
10 – 15 Jun 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[27] 580 19.1% 18.2% 17.4% 12.6% 10.9% 4.8% 4.9% 1.4% 3.7% 1.5% 1.8% 0.7% 3.0% 0.9% 60.1% 39.9%
4 – 9 Mar 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[29] 531 20.3% 20.5% 17.6% 12.2% 10.0% 3.8% 4.1% 0.9% 3.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 3.6% 0.2% 63% 37%
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[30] 526 19.7% 18.9% 16.2% 12.5% 12.0% 5.1% 4.8% 2.2% 1.9% 0.9% 2.8% 0.5% 2.2% 0.8% 61.2% 38.8%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[31] 548 21.4% 19.2% 16.4% 11.0% 11.0% 4.9% 3.6% 2.4% 2.5% 0.2% 3.1% 1.0% 3.3% 2.2% 63.7% 36.3%
26 May 2019 Federal election[45] 21.6% 20.0% 17.5% 12.3% 10.3% 5.8% 3.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% Ecolo PS 4.3% [nb 3] 1.6% 62.7% 37.3%

Seat projections

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The graph and table below shows seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives according to a reporting newspaper or polling firm.

 

By party

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76 seats needed for majority
Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publishers N‑VA PS VB MR Ecolo cd&v Open
Vld 		PVDA-
PTB 		Vooruit Groen LE DéFI Others Lead Gov. Opp. Lead
9 june 2024 Federal election 24 16 20 20 3 11 7 15 13 6 14 1 0 4 76 74 1
28 – 31 May 2024 Cluster17 RTL[46] 20 18 26 18 4 10 7 20 11 5 10 1 0 6 73 77 4
14 – 20 May 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[47][under discussion] 20 16 26 18 4 10 7 19 12 5 12 1 0 6 72 78 6
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar La Libre Belgique / RTBF[48] 19 18 26 14 8 10 11 20 10 4 9 1 0 6 75 75 0
11 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[49][under discussion] 20 16 27 15 9 11 6 19 10 5 10 2 0 7 72 78 6
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar Knack / Le Vif[50] 19 16 25 15 10 10 6 21 13 7 7 1 0 4 77 73 4
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[51] 21 18 25 14 10 10 5 19 11 7 8 2 0 4 75 75 0
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique[52] 21 19 21 16 9 10 6 20 16 6 5 1 0 0 82 69 13
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[53] 19 16 26 16 10 10 6 20 14 4 8 1 0 6 76 74 2
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[54] 20 20 22 15 10 10 6 21 16 5 4 1 0 1 82 68 14
20 – 27 Mar 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[42] 20 20 24 14 10 10 8 18 14 5 5 2 0 4 83 67 16
16 – 29 Jan 2023 3rd party analysis based on Kantar La Libre Belgique[55] 21 19 24 14 10 6 10 17 14 9 4 2 0 3 82 68 14
21 – 29 Nov 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[16] 20 19 25 15 9 8 7 18 15 7 5 2 0 5 80 70 10
7 – 13 Sep 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[17] 20 18 20 17 10 9 9 18 15 7 4 3 0 0 85 65 20
6 – 14 Jun 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[18] 25 19 21 15 11 9 7 20 12 5 4 2 0 4 78 72 6
15 – 22 Mar 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[19] 23 17 21 15 12 10 7 21 12 6 4 2 0 2 79 71 8
1 – 8 Dec 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[56] 20 17 24 16 11 10 9 19 11 6 5 2 0 4 80 70 10
7 – 14 Sep 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[57] 20 16 22 15 13 11 10 18 10 9 4 2 0 2 84 66 18
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[58] 20 18 25 14 12 9 10 17 11 7 5 2 0 5 81 69 12
4 – 9 Mar 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[59] 20 16 22 15 13 11 11 19 11 6 4 2 0 2 83 67 16
2 – 8 Dec 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[60] 20 17 25 15 12 10 10 17 12 5 5 2 0 5 81 69 12
2 – 8 Oct 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[61][62] 21 17 25 14 14 10 10 16 12 5 4 2 0 4 82 68 14
10 – 15 Jun 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[63] 20 19 26 14 12 10 9 17 10 7 4 2 0 6 81 69 12
4 – 9 Mar 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[64] 19 19 26 14 13 10 9 19 7 8 4 2 0 7 80 70 10
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[65] 20 18 27 14 13 10 8 18 6 9 5 2 0 7 78 72 6
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir[66] 21 17 25 17 13 11 11 14 6 9 4 2 0 4 84 66 18
26 May 2019 Federal election 25 20 18 14 13 12 12 12 9 8 5 2 0 5 88 62 26

By political family

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Below are tallies for each ideological 'group' as well as probable coalitions. In bold on dark grey, if the coalition commands an absolute majority.

Note that "asymetrical" coalitions are now frequent: between 2007 and 2011, PS was part of each cabinet but not sp.a (Vooruit); and between 2014 and 2018, the Michel Government included cd&v but not cdH (LE), as well as the N-VA, of which there is no equivalent in Wallonia.

Coalition seat projections

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Political family seat projections

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Date(s)
conducted 		Polling
firm 		Ideologies Coalitions
Far-left Greens Soc-
Dems 		Soc Libs Libs Chr Dems [nb 4] Flemish Nation-alist Far-right Left-
wing 		Big Olive Tree Olive Tree Purple-
Green [nb 5] 		Vivaldi (+ LE) National Unity Tri-partite Arizona Sunset Purple-Yellow Swedish + LE
[nb 6] 		Centre-
right 		Right-
wing
9 June 2024 Federal
Elections 		15 9 29 1 27 25 24 20 53 81 63 65 76 (90) 114 81 105 78 80 76 96 71
14 - 20 May 2024 Ipsos 19 9 28 1 25 22 20 26 56 78 59 62 72 (84) 104 75 95 70 73 67 93 71
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar 20 12 28 1 25 19 19 26 60 79 59 65 75 (84) 103 72 91 66 72 63 89 70
1 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos 19 14 26 2 21 21 20 27 59 80 61 61 72 (82) 102 68 87 67 67 62 89 68
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar 21 17 29 1 21 17 19 25 67 84 63 67 77 (84) 103 67 86 65 69 57 82 65
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos 19 17 29 2 19 18 21 25 65 83 64 65 75 (83) 104 66 87 68 69 58 83 65
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar 20 15 35 1 22 15 21 21 70 85 65 72 82 (87) 108 72 93 71 78 58 79 64
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos 20 14 30 1 22 18 19 26 64 82 62 66 76 (84) 103 70 89 67 71 59 85 67
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos 21 15 36 1 21 14 20 22 72 86 65 72 82 (86) 106 71 91 70 77 55 77 63
20–27 Mar 2023 Ipsos 18 15 34 2 22 15 20 24 67 82 64 71 81 (86) 106 71 91 69 76 57 81 66
16–29 Jan 2023 3rd party analysis based on Kantar 17 19 33 2 24 10 21 24 69 79 62 76 82 (86) 107 67 88 64 78 55 79 69
21–29 Nov 2022 Ipsos 18 16 34 2 22 13 20 25 68 81 63 72 80 (85) 105 69 89 67 76 55 80 67
7–13 Sep 2022 Ipsos 18 17 33 3 26 13 20 20 68 81 63 76 85 (89) 109 72 92 66 79 59 79 66
6–14 Jun 2022 Ipsos 20 16 31 2 22 13 25 21 67 80 60 69 78 (82) 107 66 91 69 78 60 81 68
15–22 Mar 2022 Ipsos 21 18 29 2 22 14 23 21 68 82 61 69 79 (83) 106 65 88 66 74 59 80 66
1–8 Dec 2021 Ipsos 19 17 28 2 25 15 20 24 64 79 60 70 80 (85) 105 68 88 63 73 60 84 69
7–14 Sep 2021 Ipsos 18 22 26 2 25 15 20 22 66 81 63 73 84 (88) 108 66 86 61 71 60 82 67
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos 17 19 29 2 24 14 20 25 65 79 62 72 81 (86) 106 67 87 63 73 58 83 69
4–9 Mar 2021 Ipsos 19 19 27 2 26 15 20 22 65 80 61 72 83 (87) 107 68 88 62 73 61 83 68
2–10 Dec 2020 Ipsos 17 17 29 2 25 15 20 25 63 78 61 71 81 (86) 106 69 89 64 74 60 85 70
2–10 Oct 2020 Ipsos 16 19 29 2 24 14 21 25 64 78 62 71 82 (86) 107 67 88 64 74 59 84 70
10–15 Jun 2020 Ipsos 17 19 29 2 23 14 20 26 65 79 62 71 81 (85) 105 66 86 63 72 57 83 69
4–9 Mar 2020 Ipsos 19 21 26 2 23 14 19 26 66 80 61 70 80 (84) 105 63 82 66 68 56 82 68
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR 18 22 24 2 22 15 20 27 64 79 61 68 78 (83) 105 61 81 59 66 57 84 69
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR 14 22 23 2 28 15 21 25 59 74 60 73 84 (88) 109 66 86 59 72 67 89 74
26 May 2019 Federal
Elections 		12 21 29 2 26 17 25 18 62 79 67 76 88 (93) 120 72 97 71 80 68 86 69

European Parliament election

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See also: Opinion polling for the 2024 European Parliament election


Dutch-speaking

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Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size N‑VA
ECR 		VB
ID 		Open Vld
Renew 		cd&v
EPP 		Groen
G/EFA 		Vooruit
S&D 		PVDA
Left 		Others Lead
23 Feb – 5 Mar 2024 Ipsos Euronews[67] 1,500 18.7%
3 		23.5%
3 		12.7%
2 		11.5%
1 		9.7%
1 		13.8%
2 		9.3%
1 		0.8%
0 		4.8%
26 May 2019 European election 22.4%
3 		19.1%
3 		15.9%
2 		14.5%
2 		12.4%
1 		10.2%
1 		4.9%
0 		0.5%
0 		3.3%

French-speaking

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Date(s) conducted Polling firm Publisher Sample size PS
S&D 		Ecolo
G/EFA 		MR
Renew 		PTB
Left 		LE
EPP 		DéFI
NI 		Others Lead
23 Feb – 5 Mar 2024 Ipsos Euronews[67] 1,500 26.7%
2 		12.8%
1 		22.8%
2 		19.2%
2 		11.0%
1 		2.8%
0 		4.7%
0 		3.9%
26 May 2019 European election 26.7%
2 		19.9%
2 		19.3%
2 		14.6%
1 		8.9%
1 		5.9%
0 		4.7%
0 		6.8%

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Chez Nous 1.4%, N-VA 1.2%[38]
  2. ^ Chez Nous 0.3%[38]
  3. ^ a b Includes the People's Party, which dissolved in June 2019 after the elections
  4. ^ Includes LE, which broke with their Christian democratic tradition on 17 March 2022
  5. ^ Example of a Purple-Green coalition: Verhofstadt I Government
  6. ^ Example of a Swedish coalition: Michel I Government

References

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  1. ^ "VP2024" (in Dutch). 9 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  2. ^ "DE LAATSTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, voor N-VA en Vooruit" (in Dutch). 6 June 2024. Retrieved 6 June 2024.
  3. ^ Delfosse, RTL info avec Frederic (4 June 2024). "Sondage RTL info-Cluster17: bataille entre le MR et le PS en Wallonie, le Vlaams Belang conforte sa place de futur premier parti en Flandre". RTL Info (in French). Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  4. ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft grootste partij van Vlaanderen, Vooruit profiteert van Conner-effect" (in Dutch). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  5. ^ a b c "Découvrez les résultats de notre sondage : le Vlaams Belang toujours plus haut, le MR en grande forme à Bruxelles" (in French). 25 April 2024. Retrieved 25 April 2024.
  6. ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang met voorsprong de grootste, Vooruit neemt een duik" (in Dutch). 22 March 2024. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  7. ^ a b c "Open Vld verliest helft zetels in Knack-peiling, liberalen duiken in Antwerpen onder kiesdrempel". De Morgen. DPG Media nv. 20 February 2024.
  8. ^ "Nieuwe peiling zet De Wever opnieuw met twee voeten in de campagne" (in Dutch). 11 March 2024. Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  9. ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Open Vld wordt kleinste partij van Vlaanderen, kwart kiest voor Vlaams Belang" (in Dutch). 15 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  10. ^ "GVA PEILING. De Wever zit federaal Vlaams Belang op de hielen, Vivaldi-partijen boeken verlies van meer dan 6%" (in Dutch). 5 December 2023. Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  11. ^ a b c "La percée du PTB et du Vlaams Belang, la mauvaise forme d'Ecolo: découvrez les résultats de notre grand sondage politique" (in French). 12 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  12. ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Kwart Vlamingen zou voor Vlaams Belang kiezen, malaise voor Open Vld en Groen is enorm" (in Dutch). 29 September 2023. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  13. ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Slechtste resultaat voor Open Vld ooit, Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 9 June 2023. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
  14. ^ a b "DE GROTE PEILING. Kwart van Vlamingen zou voor Vlaams Belang stemmen, beste peiling in anderhalf jaar voor CD&V" (in Dutch). 31 March 2023. Retrieved 31 March 2023.
  15. ^ a b c "Notre sondage politique : le Vlaams Belang triomphe en Flandre, le PTB enregistre la plus grande progression en Wallonie" (in French). 16 February 2023. Retrieved 16 February 2023.
  16. ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Een kwart van de Vlamingen stemt voor Vlaams Belang, Conner Rousseau wordt de populairste politicus van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 2 December 2022. Retrieved 2 December 2022.
  17. ^ a b c d "DE GROTE PEILING. Vooruit scoort historisch hoog, Vlaams Belang wordt nipt de grootste partij van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 16 September 2022. Retrieved 16 September 2022.
  18. ^ a b c d Roelandt, Astrid (17 June 2022). "GROTE PEILING. Open Vld op laagste peil ooit, N-VA bijna terug op verkiezingsresultaat" (in Dutch). Retrieved 17 June 2022.
  19. ^ a b c d "DE GROTE PEILING. N-VA weer nipt de grootste partij van Vlaanderen, Vlaams Belang volgt op korte afstand". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 25 March 2022.
  20. ^ a b "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij in Vlaanderen, PS sterkste stijger in Wallonië". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 10 December 2021.
  21. ^ a b "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij in Vlaanderen, PS krijgt klappen in Wallonië". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 18 September 2021.
  22. ^ a b c "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, cd&v op dieptepunt met 10 procent". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 4 June 2021.
  23. ^ "Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, premier Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) de populairste: dit zegt "De Stemming"". VRT NWS (Dutch). 22 May 2021.
  24. ^ "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang zakt maar blijft de grootste partij". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 12 March 2021.
  25. ^ "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, N-VA zakt net onder de 20%". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 11 December 2020.
  26. ^ a b c "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, sp.a blijft 'vooruit' gaan". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 20 October 2020.
  27. ^ a b c "GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft afgetekend de grootste, sp.a klimt naar derde plaats". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 19 June 2020.
  28. ^ "De Stemming: de kiezer ruilt het centrum meer en meer in voor de uitersten". VRT NWS (Dutch). 23 May 2020.
  29. ^ a b c "Grote Peiling: Vlaams Belang wordt de grootste, ook PVDA scoort, N-VA zakt richting 20%". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 14 March 2020.
  30. ^ a b c "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang stijgt tot ongekende hoogtes, Open Vld afgestraft". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 13 December 2019.
  31. ^ a b c "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang wipt over N-VA naar eerste plaats, dramatische score voor cd&v en sp.a". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 13 September 2019.
  32. ^ "NIEUWE PEILING. Vlaams Belang en N-VA halen samen meerderheid in Vlaams Parlement" (in Dutch). 17 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
  33. ^ "De Stemming 2024; Vlaams Belang peilde nooit hoger, N-VA zakt voor het eerst onder de 20 procent". De Standaard. 2 March 2024.
  34. ^ "PEILING. Vooruit gaat achteruit na heisa rond Conner Rousseau, Vlaams Belang heeft wind in de zeilen" (in Dutch). 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  35. ^ "Peiling "De Stemming": Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, Vooruit gaat meest vooruit en PVDA wordt vierde partij". VRTNWS. 12 May 2023.
  36. ^ "cd&v verliest bijna helft van kiezers en wordt de kleinste partij van Vlaanderen". VRTNWS. 6 May 2022.
  37. ^ Delfosse, RTL info avec Frederic (4 June 2024). "Sondage RTL info-Cluster17: bataille entre le MR et le PS en Wallonie, le Vlaams Belang conforte sa place de futur premier parti en Flandre". RTL Info (in French). Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  38. ^ a b David Coppi (15 December 2023). "Grand Baromètre : le PTB caracole à Bruxelles et dégringole en Wallonie (infographies)". Le Soir. Retrieved 16 December 2023. Mais d'autres électeurs envisagent de donner leur voix à la N-VA (1,2 %) si elle présente des listes au sud du pays et également à « Chez nous », mouvement d'extrême droite (1,4 % contre 0,3 % en septembre) ainsi qu'à d'autres formations comme le Parti Populaire.
  39. ^ a b "Grand Baromètre: le PTB monte en puissance". Le Soir (French). 12 March 2021.
  40. ^ a b "Grand Baromètre: le gouvernement De Croo fait chuter la N-VA sous les 20%". Le Soir (French). 11 December 2020.
  41. ^ Delfosse, RTL info avec Frederic (4 June 2024). "Sondage RTL info-Cluster17: bataille entre le MR et le PS en Wallonie, le Vlaams Belang conforte sa place de futur premier parti en Flandre". RTL Info (in French). Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  42. ^ a b c "Ipsos: De Grote Peiling – Le Grand Baromètre" (PDF). Het Laatste Nieuws (in Dutch and French). 31 March 2023. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
  43. ^ "Grand Baromètre: le PS décroche à Bruxelles mais redécolle en Wallonie". Le Soir (French). 10 December 2021.
  44. ^ "Grand Baromètre: le PS chute en Wallonie, la N-VA et le Belang baissent en Flandre". Le Soir (French). 18 September 2021.
  45. ^ "Federale verkiezingen 2019: alle uitslagen". 26 May 2019. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  46. ^ Delfosse, RTL info avec Frederic (4 June 2024). "Sondage RTL info-Cluster17: bataille entre le MR et le PS en Wallonie, le Vlaams Belang conforte sa place de futur premier parti en Flandre". RTL Info (in French). Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  47. ^ "seat projections". 24 May 2024.
  48. ^ "seat projections". 25 April 2024.
  49. ^ "seat projections". 22 March 2024.
  50. ^ "seat projections". 20 February 2024.
  51. ^ "seat projections". 16 December 2023.
  52. ^ "seat projections". 12 October 2023.
  53. ^ "seat projections". 29 September 2023.
  54. ^ "Extreme droite et extreme gauche conditionnent la campagne de 2024". 10 June 2023.
  55. ^ "Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique, 16–29 January 2023". 17 February 2023. Retrieved 17 February 2023.
  56. ^ "De Grote Peiling. Regering-De Croo verliest 7 zetels, maar behoudt meerderheid". 11 December 2021.
  57. ^ "BELGIUM · Ipsos poll 17/09/2021: VB largest party in Flanders (23.6%), PS in Wallonia (21.4%), Ecolo in Brussels (19.1%)". 17 September 2021.
  58. ^ "Amper helft Groen- en Vooruitkiezers heeft vertrouwen in regering, Vivaldi verliest zes zetels in peiling". 5 June 2021.
  59. ^ "Seat projections". 12 March 2021.
  60. ^ "#GrandBaromètre IProjection en sièges à la Chambre". 12 December 2020.
  61. ^ "De Grote Peiling. Regering-De Croo verliest 5 zetels, maar behoudt ruime meerderheid". 12 October 2020.
  62. ^ "Grand Baromètre: le gouvernement De Croo serait moins représentatif si les élections avaient lieu demain". 12 October 2020.
  63. ^ "#GrandBaromètre Ipsos RTL-Soir-HLN: The Projection and Sessions à la Chambre". 14 March 2020.
  64. ^ "Les francophones bien à gauche, La Flandre à droite". Le Soir (French). 14 March 2020.
  65. ^ "Le Vlaams Belang s'envole, la Flandre à droite toute". Le Soir (French). 15 December 2019.
  66. ^ "Grand Baromètre: le Vlaams Belang et la N-VA obtiennent la majorité flamande à la Chambre (infographie)". Le Soir (French). 14 September 2019.
  67. ^ a b "Euronews-Ipsos Poll". 19 March 2024. Retrieved 17 April 2024.
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