In the run up to the Next Japanese general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 27 October 2024, to the present day.
Graphical summary
edit
Party identification
edit2024
edit| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | LDP | CDP | DPFP | JIP | KMT | REI | JCP | DIY | CPJ | SDP | Others | No party | Und./ no ans. |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–24 Nov | Mainichi/SSRC | 1,919 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | – | 38 | – | 17 |
| 16–17 Nov | Kyodo News | 1,021 | 30.5 | 15.1 | 9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.2[a] | 20.9 | 2.2 | 9.6 |
| 16–17 Nov | go2senkyo/JX | 1,003 | 26.9 | 16.0 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | – | 31.9 | – | 5.0 |
| 15–17 Nov | NHK | 1,213 | 30.1 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 31.6 | 6.1 | 1.5 |
| 15–17 Nov | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 800 | 30 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | – | 19 | 2 | 11 |
| 11–12 Nov | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,054 | 30 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | – | 30 | 4 | Tie |
| 11 Nov | The Second Ishiba Cabinet is formed. | |||||||||||||||
| 8–11 Nov | Jiji Press | 1,190 | 20 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | – | 52.7 | 3.3 | 32.7 |
| 9–10 Nov | ANN | 1,025 | 36.6 | 15.8 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 20.8 |
| 9 Nov | Tetsuo Saito succeeds Keiichi Ishii as President of Komeito. | |||||||||||||||
| 2–3 Nov | Asahi | 26 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | – | 29 | 10 | 3 | |
| 2–3 Nov | Sankei/FNN | 1,012 | 25.8 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | – | 28.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| 1–2 Nov | JNN | 1,020 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 31.8 | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| 28–29 Oct | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,068 | 25 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | – | 31 | 3 | 6 |
| 28–29 Oct | Kyodo News | 1,063 | 31.8 | 20.3 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | – | 15 | 1.6 | 11.5 |
| 27 Oct | Election results | 53.84%[b] | 26.7 | 21.2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
Voting intention (party vote)
edit2024
edit| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | LDP | CDP | DPFP | JIP | KMT | REI | JCP | DIY | CPJ | SDP | Others | None/Und. | No ans. | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16–17 Nov | go2senkyo/JX | 1,003 | 26.3 | 21.0 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 2.1[c] | 12.5 | – | 5.3 |
| 27 Oct | Election results | 53.84%[b] | 26.7 | 21.2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
Preferred coalition
edit| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | LDP–KMT coalition | CDP-led coalition[d] | Other | Und./ no ans. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–17 Nov 2024 | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 800 | 42[e] | 13[f] | 31[g] | 14 | |
| 11–12 Nov 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,054 | 44 | 37 | – | 19 | |
| 8–11 Nov 2024 | Jiji Press | 1,190 | 40.7 | 32.7 | – | 26.6 | |
| 9–10 Nov 2024 | ANN | 1,025 | 50 | 34 | – | 17 | |
| 2–3 Nov 2024 | Asahi | 43 | 32 | – | 25 | ||
| 1–2 Nov 2024 | JNN | 1,020 | 44 | 41 | – | 15 | |
| 28–29 Oct 2024 | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,068 | 43 | 40 | – | 17 | |
| 28–29 Oct 2024 | Kyodo News | 1,063 | 18.1 | 24.6 | 31.5[h] | 25.8 | |
Preferred prime minister
edit| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size |
Ishiba LDP |
Noda CDP |
Tamaki DPFP |
Baba Ishin |
Saito Kōmeitō |
Yamamoto Reiwa |
Tamura JCP |
Others | NOT/ UD/NA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9–10 Nov 2024 | ANN | 1,025 | 37 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 13 |
| 2–3 Nov 2024 | Sankei/FNN | 1,012 | 46.1 | 17.4 | 10.2 | 2.7 | – | – | – | – | 23.6 |
| 1–2 Nov 2024 | JNN | 1,020 | 50 | 35 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15 |
Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings
edit
2024
edit| Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample size | Prime Minister | Approve | Disapprove | Und. / no answer | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–24 Nov | Mainichi/SSRC | 1,919 | Shigeru Ishiba | 31 | 50 | 20 | 19 |
| 16–17 Nov | Kyodo News | 1,021 | 40 | 38.8 | 21.2 | 1.2 | |
| 16–17 Nov | go2senkyo/JX | 1,003 | 39.7[i] | 29.9[j] | 30.5 | 9.8 | |
| 15–17 Nov | NHK | 1,213 | 40.8 | 37 | 22.2 | 3.8 | |
| 15–17 Nov | Nikkei/TV Tokyo | 800 | 46 | 46 | 8 | Tie | |
| 11–12 Nov | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,054 | 43 | 42 | 15 | 1 | |
| 11 Nov | The Second Ishiba Cabinet is formed. | ||||||
| 8–11 Nov | Jiji Press | 1,190 | Shigeru Ishiba | 28.7 | 38.3 | 33 | 5.3 |
| 9–10 Nov | ANN | 1,025 | 38.3 | 37.3 | 24.4 | 1 | |
| 29 Oct–4 Nov | Morning Consult | N/A | 23 | 53.4 | 23.6 | 29.8 | |
| 2–3 Nov | Asahi | 34 | 47 | 19 | 13 | ||
| 2–3 Nov | Sankei/FNN | 1,012 | 43.8 | 49.8 | 6.4 | 6 | |
| 1–2 Nov | JNN | 1,020 | 38.9 | 57.3 | 3.8 | 18.4 | |
| 28–29 Oct | Yomiuri/NNN | 1,068 | 34 | 51 | 15 | 17 | |
| 28–29 Oct | Kyodo News | 1,063 | 32.1 | 52.2 | 15.7 | 20.1 | |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.2%
- ^ a b Election turnout.
- ^ The Collaborative Party: 0.7%; Others: 1.4%
- ^ Some polls refer it as "opposition-led coalition".
- ^ "Opposition parties cooperating with the LDP-Komeito government on each policy basis": 42%
- ^ "A coalition government between the opposition parties": 13%
- ^ "A coalition government between the LDP-Komeito and opposition parties": 30%; Others: 1%
- ^ "A new framework through political realignment": 31.5%
- ^ Strongly approve: 10%; Approve on balance: 29.7%
- ^ Disapprove on balance: 13.3%; Completely disapprove: 16.6%