Post-election pendulum for the 2009 Queensland state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2009 Queensland state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor seats (51) Marginal Chatsworth Steven Kilburn ALP 0.1% Everton Murray Watt ALP 1.4% Broadwater Peta-Kaye Croft ALP 2.0% Cook Jason O'Brien ALP 2.2% Barron River Steve Wettenhall ALP 2.3% Whitsunday Jan Jarratt ALP 3.2% Toowoomba North Kerry Shine ALP 3.2% Southport Peter Lawlor ALP 3.5% Townsville Mandy Johnstone ALP 4.0% Springwood Barbara Stone ALP 4.1% Cairns Desley Boyle ALP 4.2% Mansfield Phil Reeves ALP 4.4% Ferny Grove Geoff Wilson ALP 4.5% Kallangur Mary-Anne O'Neill ALP 4.6% Pine Rivers Carolyn Male ALP 4.6% Mount Ommaney Julie Attwood ALP 4.8% Burleigh Christine Smith ALP 4.9% Pumicestone Carryn Sullivan ALP 5.0% Mount Coot-tha Andrew Fraser ALP 5.2% Redcliffe Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 5.6% Mount Isa Betty Kiernan ALP 5.7% Fairly safe Brisbane Central Grace Grace ALP 6.0% Albert Margaret Keech ALP 6.5% Mundingburra Lindy Nelson-Carr ALP 6.6% Greenslopes Cameron Dick ALP 6.9% Ashgrove Kate Jones ALP 7.1% Murrumba Dean Wells ALP 7.2% Stafford Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 7.3% Keppel Paul Hoolihan ALP 7.6% Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 7.8% Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 8.1% Thuringowa Craig Wallace ALP 8.5% Yeerongpilly Simon Finn ALP 8.7% Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 9.1% Algester Karen Struthers ALP 9.2% Stretton Stephen Robertson ALP 9.5% Ipswich West Wayne Wendt ALP 9.5% Capalaba Michael Choi ALP 9.7% Safe Sunnybank Judy Spence ALP 10.8% Lytton Paul Lucas ALP 12.2% Sandgate Vicky Darling ALP 12.4% Logan John Mickel ALP 13.9% Nudgee Neil Roberts ALP 14.3% South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP 15.0% Waterford Evan Moorhead ALP 16.5% Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP 16.7% Ipswich Rachel Nolan ALP 16.7% Rockhampton Robert Schwarten ALP 17.9% Very safe Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 21.2% Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 21.5% Woodridge Desley Scott ALP 25.4% Liberal National seats (31) Marginal Redlands Peter Dowling LNP 0.1% Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP 0.3% Mirani Ted Malone LNP 0.6% Gaven Alex Douglas LNP 0.7% Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 1.9% Burdekin Rosemary Menkens LNP 3.1% Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 3.9% Aspley Tracy Davis LNP 4.5% Dalrymple Shane Knuth LNP v ONP 4.5% Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 5.8% Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 5.8% Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP 5.9% Fairly safe Bundaberg Jack Dempsey LNP 6.0% Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 6.2% Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 6.5% Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 6.9% Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 6.9% Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP 7.6% Toowoomba South Mike Horan LNP 8.2% Beaudesert Aidan McLindon LNP 8.3% Safe Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 10.8% Burnett Rob Messenger LNP 11.1% Moggill Bruce Flegg LNP 11.3% Condamine Ray Hopper LNP v IND 11.6% Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 12.8% Gregory Vaughan Johnson LNP 14.3% Buderim Steve Dickson LNP 14.3% Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP 14.7% Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 16.5% Callide Jeff Seeney LNP 19.4% Noosa Glen Elmes LNP 19.8% Very safe Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP 21.1% Warrego Howard Hobbs LNP 24.3% Gympie David Gibson LNP 27.3% Others (7) Nanango Dorothy Pratt IND v LNP 2.9% Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND v ALP 6.1% Nicklin Peter Wellington IND v LNP 16.3% Maryborough Chris Foley IND v LNP 16.8%