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Rachel Bitecofer (born February 23, 1977)[1][2] is an American political scientist.
Rachel Bitecofer | |
|---|---|
 Bitecofer in 2020 | |
| Born | February 23, 1977 |
| Education | University of Oregon (BA) University of Georgia (MA, PhD) |
Early life and career
editBitecofer graduated magna cum laude with honors from the University of Oregon where she earned a bachelor's degree in political science and earned her Ph.D. in political science and international affairs from the University of Georgia. In 2015 she became a lecturer at Christopher Newport University and assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy where she conducted polling. In 2019 she applied to convert her position to tenure track, which would lighten her teaching responsibilities, but was denied by the university. She then resigned her position and went to work for the Niskanen Center, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C.[3]
Election punditry
editBitecofer's analysis has appeared on multiple media platforms including MSNBC and the New York Times. She wrote the 2017 book, The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election, on the election of Donald Trump and runs a podcast hosted by Substrack titled The Election Whisperer. She runs Strike Pac, a liberal super PAC.[4]
In 2017, Bitecofer released The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election, positing her own theory on how Trump was elected.
Bitecofer has been noted for accurately predicting the size of the "Blue Wave" in the 2018 United States midterm elections much earlier than other forecasters.[2] She projected before the election that Democrats would gain 42 U.S. House seats in the election;[2] the results saw Democrats gain 41 seats.[5] She also advanced the eventually-correct theory that Trump would lose reelection.[6]
Bitecofer has argued that differential turnout has an increasing role in elections.[2] This view has been criticized by other political analysts like David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, with others such as Kyle Kondik of The Crystal Ball and Sam Wang offering more support.
Bitecofer has argued against Democrats nominating moderate "Blue Dog" candidates, pointing to liberal candidates Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke losing their elections in 2018 by fairly narrow margins.[2]
In July 2019, Bitecofer, like many analysts, accurately predicted that President Trump would lose the 2020 election.[7][8][9][5] Bitecofer argued that the 2020 electorate would see the return of voters who were unmotivated to vote in 2016.[8]
References
edit- ^ Bitecofer, Rachel [@RachelBitecofer] (February 23, 2019). "My mommy made me a birthday cake" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ a b c d e Freedlander, David (February 6, 2020). "An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter". Politico. Retrieved June 12, 2020.
- ^ Jones, Matt (March 24, 2020). "Election forecaster Rachel Bitecofer to leave CNU after denied shot at tenure". Daily Press. Retrieved June 12, 2020.
- ^ "New superPAC launches to battle Republican messaging". MSNBC.com. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
- ^ a b Capehart, Jonathan (March 12, 2020). "'Black Americans are saving America from itself' in the Democratic primaries". Washington Post. Retrieved June 12, 2020.
- ^ Bitecofer, Rachel (January 25, 2019). "Opinion | Why Trump Will Lose in 2020". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
- ^ Bitecofer, Rachel (July 1, 2019). "With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election". Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy. Retrieved June 12, 2020.
- ^ a b Rodrigo, Chris Mills (July 1, 2019). "Trump predicted to lose reelection in model that forecasted Democratic takeover of House". The Hill. Retrieved June 12, 2020.
- ^ Ress, Dave (July 2, 2019). "Regressing, to look forward: CNU's Bitecofer forecasts a Trump defeat in 2020". Daily Press. Retrieved June 12, 2020.
External links
edit- Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy, with articles by Rachel Bitecofer
- Appearances on C-SPAN