Talk:2006 Pacific typhoon season/December

December

Week 1

25W.UTOR

93W.INVEST

4.3ºN 155.1ºE -- グリフオーザー 06:14, 2 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC 6am: -- グリフオーザー 06:25, 2 December 2006 (UTC)
An area of convection near 4.3N 155.1E or 265 nm southeast of Chuuk. Imagery shows flaring convection over a developing low level circulation center with low vertical wind sheer and favorable westward and equatorward outflow. Maximum sustained winds 10 to 15 knots with a center pressure of 1006 mb. development into a significant tropical cyclone is poor.

JTWC 6am: -- グリフオーザー 06:00, 3 December 2006 (UTC)
area of convection no longer considered for development.

4.5N 154E - 15 knots 1006 mb -- グリフオーザー 20:33, 4 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC 6am: -- グリフオーザー 06:58, 5 December 2006 (UTC)
Area of convection near 5.7ºN 152.6ºE or 110 nm south-southeast of Chuuk. Imagery shows an exposed low level circulation center with flaring deep convection. The analysis shows the disturbance center is within the monsoon trough and in a favorable environment with low vertical sheer.
Maximum sustained winds of 12 to 18 knots and a center pressure 1006 mb.

JMA 12pm -- low pressure area -- 1008 hPa -- グリフオーザー 16:08, 5 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC: 6am UTC - グリフオーザー 06:25, 6 December 2006 (UTC)
Area of convection near 9.0ºN 142.3ºE or 300 nm south-southwest of Guam. Imagery shows an improve consolidation of low level circulation center. The analysis shows the disturbance center is within favorable environment with low vertical shear. Maximum sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots and a center pressure 1004 mb. Potential development to form into a tropical cyclone has been upgraded to fair.

TCFA. -- RattleMan 16:19, 6 December 2006 (UTC)

25W.NONAME

JMA full TD/TD25W. – Chacor 02:31, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

And the path takes 25W (Utor) into the Phillipines as a Category 1. The Phillipines just can't catch a break this season. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Jake52 (talk • contribs) 03:02, 7 December 2006 (UTC).

what I don't get is JTWC is reporting 25W moving west at 16 knots and the JMA says west slowly. -- グリフオーザー 03:56, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC's movement is over the past six hours... JMA's is forecasted, I think. – Chacor 03:58, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Utor

35 knots 998 hPa -- グリフオーザー 19:07, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

The poor Philippines are going to get hammered again. At least this one might not a Cat 4-5 when it strikes. —Cuiviénen 21:10, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

Very similar track to Typhoon Durian, but slightly further south. And forecast to be much weaker. RaNdOm26 07:16, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

It's also moving faster, which is another inhibitor. None of the agencies are forecasting it to be a typhoon at landfall, at least not right now. --Coredesat 07:28, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Utor

Now an STS. Don't be fooled by the public advisory that says 60 kt in 24 hours: in the marine advisory, a 12-hour forecast point was added (normally it doesn't carry one):

FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 10.8N 126.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Typhoon is forecast within 12 hours. – Chacor 13:03, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

Please specify by which Authority --Ugaap 13:24, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

You're kidding, right? Jeez. RJTD is the JMA's code. – Chacor 13:26, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

Typhoon Utor

Here we go. – Chacor 01:21, 9 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC confirms typhoon. And here's an eye feature. – Chacor 02:57, 9 December 2006 (UTC)

SSD:reporting a T6.0 intensity? -- グリフオーザー 23:57, 9 December 2006 (UTC)

100kts from NRL. Rapid strenghening? 24.85.160.56 01:58, 10 December 2006 (UTC)

36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.4N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
O___________________O -- RattleMan 02:39, 10 December 2006 (UTC)

They can't catch a break down there!!! CrazyC83 03:19, 10 December 2006 (UTC)

whoa, a Super Typhoon forecasted east of Vietnam -- グリフオーザー 03:39, 10 December 2006 (UTC)

94W.TD

94W.INVEST

A 94W just popped up, located near 14.4N 149.0E. --Coredesat 21:08, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

JMA 6pm: low pressure area 1008 hPa, stationary -- グリフオーザー 21:39, 8 December 2006 (UTC)

JMA TD

00Z JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 15N 148E WEST SLOWLY. – Chacor 02:58, 9 December 2006 (UTC)

06Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 147E WNW 10 KT. – Chacor 09:26, 9 December 2006 (UTC)

Gone from NRL, still on JMA's weather chart near 19N 139E, NNW 10 kt. --Coredesat 02:00, 11 December 2006 (UTC)

00: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1014 HPA AT 20N 140E NE 10 KT. Northeast!? – Chacor 09:44, 11 December 2006 (UTC)

Gone at 06Z. – Chacor 09:58, 11 December 2006 (UTC)

Week 2

95W.TD

JMA TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 154E NW 10 KT. Not on NRL yet. --Coredesat 00:57, 11 December 2006 (UTC)

That was fast, it's already gone. --Coredesat 02:51, 11 December 2006 (UTC)

95W.INVEST

10.0ºN 147.6ºE -- グリフオーザー 22:56, 11 December 2006 (UTC)

Appears to have gone poof based on the imagery on FNMOC, NRL hasn't updated since 18Z yesterday. --Coredesat 08:42, 12 December 2006 (UTC)

nah still there, I think NRL were experiencing problems. 8.8ºN, 140.6ºE - グリフオーザー 19:03, 12 December 2006 (UTC)

26W.TRAMI

96W.INVEST

4.0ºN 165.5ºE --Ajm⁸¹ 19:02, 13 December 2006 (UTC)

18Z LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 02N 169E ALMOST STATIONARY. – Chacor 00:24, 14 December 2006 (UTC)

18UTC LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 161E MOVING WNW 15 KNOTS - グリフオーザー 00:46, 15 December 2006 (UTC)

ABPW issuance at 0130:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N
165.0E HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO NEAR 6.0N 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 142144Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
FLARING CONVECTION NORTH OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI REPORT PRESSURE
FALLS OF 2.7 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. – Chacor 01:50, 15 December 2006 (UTC)

0600am UTC - グリフオーザー 06:40, 15 December 2006 (UTC)

A area of convection near 6.0ºN 158.4ºE or 60 nm south of Pohnpei. Imagery shows a broad low level with weak multiple low level circulation centers and poorly organized deep convection. Analysis shows that this disturbance is within favorable environment with weak vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds are 12 to 18 knots with a center pressure of 1007 mb. The potential of this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours remain fair.

JMA TD (<30 kt)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 157E WNW 15 KT. JTWC: Downgraded to POOR. --Coredesat 12:42, 15 December 2006 (UTC)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 150E WNW 20 KT. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 04:36, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON- VECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTUR- BANCE HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OR CONSOLIDATION SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THIS BULLETIN, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 07:06, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

JMA TD (30 kt)

JMA 16 Dec 1200:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 09.4N 146.0E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 15:07, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

2100 UTC forecasted to have sustained winds of 35 knots in 24 hours. - グリフオーザー 22:34, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

ABPW PGTW 170030: 10.2N 142.1E, 300 nm east of Yap. Broad low level turning with deep convection, weak banding on northern periphery wrapping into the center of circulation. Favorable upper level environment with fair divergence aloft and low vertical wind shear. Winds at 18 to 22 kt, pressure at 1006 mb - FAIR. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 02:43, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

26W.NONAME

26W.NONAME on NRL. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:53, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

JMA 17 Dec 0300: 11.0N 140.5E POOR, WNW 20KT, 1006HPA, 030KT - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:57, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

JTWC Warning #1 on TD 24W. Forecast track brings it close to Metro Manila again, in a Durian-ish approach. Hope it recurves like Yagi. TS in 12h. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 04:53, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

Very similar to the past four storms, all hitting the Phillippines. It's forecast to move WNW at 22 kts (JMA). That's fairly speeding! Insanephantom 08:30, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

Yeah, Coredesat commented about that on IRC: "Damn, that thing's racing. Surprised it can maintain a surface circulation." - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 10:01, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

Track now looking Cimaron-ish and Chebi-ish. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 10:14, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Trami

JMA track still looks like Durian, version 2. – Chacor 13:08, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

Someone needs to update the main page with information on this storm. platyfish625 20:00, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

Why? It hasn't done any real damage yet. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 00:35, 18 December 2006 (UTC)

Sorry, I meant current storm information on; the season page and that was just the cache on my browser. platyfish625 03:42, 18 December 2006 (UTC)

Usually we'll update it at least every 12 hours. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 12:44, 18 December 2006 (UTC)

Significantly weakened under high wind shear. Dead per JTWC, named Tomas by PAGASA earlier. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 13:57, 18 December 2006 (UTC)

JMA still predicts slight strengthening and continued westward movement, but PAGASA predicts strengthening to typhoon in the direction of Okinawa. Massive discrepancies between models... - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 16:29, 18 December 2006 (UTC)

Dead. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 01:40, 19 December 2006 (UTC)

Week 3

97W.INVEST

A 97W just appeared, near 2.1N 178.7E. Not a lot of imagery available yet. --Coredesat 01:35, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

2.1°N??????? Any lower it'll be a southern hempisphere storm, any word on its direction?Mitchazenia(8300+edits) 01:55, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

Looks like west, according to the satellite loop. --Coredesat 03:16, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

Unlisted LPA on JMA. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 04:36, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

Dead on NRL, still on FNMOC. - SpLoT _{(*T* C+u+g+v)} 03:51, 17 December 2006 (UTC)

98W.INVEST

7.0N 134.0E 15kts --Ajm⁸¹ 19:43, 22 December 2006 (UTC)

JMA unlisted LPA since a long, long time ago. - SpLoT _(*C*+u+g) 07:58, 23 December 2006 (UTC)

Gone, not surprisingly. --Coredesat 06:47, 24 December 2006 (UTC)

Week 4

99W.INVEST

near 9.0N 106.0E south of Vietnam, it didn't last long. -- グリフオーザー 21:14, 29 December 2006 (UTC)

90W.INVEST

5.7N 110.8E, same general location as 99W was last night. -- グリフオーザー 08:04, 30 December 2006 (UTC)

Might be the same area of convection. The convection is very deep and nearly stationary, but it's being sheared by a trough. --Coredesat 01:16, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

It has about 24 hours to strengthen into TD 25W - if it reforms.Mitchazenia(almost 8800+edits) 01:50, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

Local time or GMT time determines its name or number? Would it be 25W or 01W if it formed on January 1 local time and December 31 GMT time? CrazyC83 04:39, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

A very good question. I have no idea. Let's hope it's straightforward ;) SpLoT _(*C*+u+g) 04:58, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

It actually wouldn't be 25W, because 25W was Utor. If this were to be classified by the JTWC before January 1 UTC, it would be 27W. After that, and it would be 01W. The main question is whether it would be 0624 or 0701 (the JMA does not number TDs). --Coredesat 05:53, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 05N 112E WEST SLOWLY. --Coredesat 08:53, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

JMA 18pm UTC doesn't recognize or mention the low anymore - グリフオーザー 21:04, 31 December 2006 (UTC)

18pm? :P Anyway, gone from FNMOC and NRL. - SpLoT | '07 _(*C*+u+g) 03:42, 1 January 2007 (UTC)