Talk:2015 Queensland state election

July to September Newspoll

This is very interesting. Timeshift (talk) 08:00, 2 October 2012 (UTC)

polling

The text is all about newspoll, but I would say there are other polls in the table. I think the October 2014 poll reference is to a Morgan poll. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/election-too-close-to-call-poll-20141028-11ddg6.html — Preceding unsigned comment added by 60.242.139.183 (talk) 08:24, 1 December 2014 (UTC)

On your marks...

It's looking like the election could be called tomorrow, for as early as 31 January! [1] --Canley (talk) 12:11, 5 January 2015 (UTC)

Change to template

The wording "Elected Premier" should be changed to "Premier after election". This matches "Premier before election" and in any case Premiers are not elected. 203.9.185.136 (talk) 01:38, 2 February 2015 (UTC)

The expression "Elected <title>" is hard-coded into Template:Infobox election. Any change will affect hundreds or even thousands of pages where the template is used. WWGB (talk) 02:20, 2 February 2015 (UTC)

Actually, you can override this using a posttitle parameter without altering the template:

| posttitle       = Premier after election

--Canley (talk) 02:44, 2 February 2015 (UTC)

Ferny Grove

Ferny Grove by-election 'likely' after PUP candidate bankruptcy revelation, LNP president Bruce McIver says. --Canley (talk) 02:30, 4 February 2015 (UTC)

• Given this is looking more likely, and has been an ongoing story post-election day, I have added a reference to the situation to the article. ColonialGrid (talk) 11:44, 8 February 2015 (UTC)

Ferny Grove should have no impact on who forms govt. Timeshift (talk) 01:34, 9 February 2015 (UTC)

Key dates

It would be useful to add key dates like for the previous election. 203.9.185.136 (talk) 02:52, 9 February 2015 (UTC)

Yep, I'll add a table of dates when the other events happen: Premier/ministry sworn in, parliament meets, writs returned, etc. --Canley (talk) 22:52, 12 February 2015 (UTC)

Any statewide two-party vote around?

Has anyone read any publications indicating an approximation of the statewide two-party vote? Timeshift (talk) 17:25, 12 February 2015 (UTC)

Malcolm Mackerras normally does one for Queensland. Not sure where he publishes it but Antony Green mentioned it two months later when he published his post-election pendulum. I reckon it's a few weeks away anyway, as the ECQ doesn't do a notional TPP count because of OPV. --Canley (talk) 22:47, 12 February 2015 (UTC)

Not directing my frustration at you, but i'm a little fed up with this whole idea of OPV making 2PP irrelevant. 2PP is still used to determine the winner of every seat, the statewide figure is an amalgamation of that, and is pretty good at matching the 2PP majority with who forms govt. Votes from all minor parties exhaust to some extent. When you look at a seat's percentages versus the votes, the percentage doesn't look all that different to a guesstimate as to what it would be with full-pref. It's even more important at this election considering a preference landslide went to Labor at this election. We're looking at a 13-14% 2PP swing even though the primary swings aren't that high. One more point... at Queensland state election, 2012, I really do think the 2PP belongs in the results table rather than as a sentence below it. But i'm not sure how to code it in to this type of result table. Thoughts? Timeshift (talk) 23:38, 12 February 2015 (UTC)

See Victorian state election, 2014 for how to encode a two-party figure into the results summary table – as there are no vote figures for QLD 2012, leave them out and put in a note saying the percentages are a Mackerras estimate. Sorry you're right, I should have just said ECQ doesn't do the TPP notional counts full stop, I don't really know if OPV is a factor in that decision. --Canley (talk) 00:07, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

OK, here you go, Antony just tweeted his TPP estimate ten minutes ago: @AntonyGreenABC: My current estimate of the #qldvotes state 2PP is Labor 50.9% LNP 49.1% #qldpol. --Canley (talk) 02:12, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

That's a 13.7 percent 2PP swing...! It certainly shows that many third party voters changed their preference from LNP to ALP and also a lot more preferences took place. There's articles on this out there. Might be worth a sentence in a fuller article. But the 2PP should definitely be added to the result table IMHO. Timeshift (talk) 02:30, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

OK, I've added the summary for 2015 and 2012. What do you think? For 2009, Mackerras and Green estimated different figures though. --Canley (talk) 02:52, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

Have you got the source links? Timeshift (talk) 04:20, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

I put the links in the notes (Green's tweet and blog post from May 2012). --Canley (talk) 04:25, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

I can see that, but are there online sources giving two different figures? Timeshift (talk) 04:41, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

Oh, OK, that was in Antony's blog post: "In 2009 Malcolm Mackerras produced an estimated statewide Labor 2PP of 50.9% using the approach of distributing Cunningham's preferences and viewing Gladstone as a Labor seat. I adopted the approach of another Queensland political observer, David Fraser, in treating Cunningham's two-candidate vote as the non-Labor two-party vote, which gave a Labor state-wide vote of 50.6%.". As I said above, I can't find a source of Mackerras publishing his estimates, other than them being cited by Green. --Canley (talk) 04:46, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

Here's a repost of a Mackerras article from The Australian in 2004 about calculating the statewide 2PP estimate. --Canley (talk) 04:59, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

Declaration

All seats are now declared. --Canley (talk) 04:11, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

I don't ever recall a governor requiring the writs before he can appoint a Premier. Call me suspicious but is it possible the LNP-appointed governor is playing politics? Timeshift (talk) 04:44, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

Palaszczuk sworn in as Premier. Timeshift (talk) 06:50, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

• No she has not been sworn in as Premier. She has been invited to form a government and confirmed as the next Premier. She will be sworn in tomorrow (Saturday). 203.9.185.136 (talk) 07:03, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

Yep, ABC has changed their wording. Timeshift (talk) 07:09, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

Also: Meanwhile, the ECQ announced it would not lodge a petition with the Court of Disputed Returns for the seat of Ferny Grove following additional legal advice. Timeshift (talk) 06:57, 13 February 2015 (UTC)

Results tables by district

I've run out a file of the results tables for each district using a database and a script.

The output is in my userspace at User:Canley/QLD2015results.

There's probably a couple of issues that usually arise:

• Not all the two-party distributions were published on the ECQ website at the time (I think about 5 were missing)
• There is sometimes a problem with independents, so check the swing for those which should usually be the same as the vote percentage unless the candidate ran at the last election
• There might be a rounding issue with the swings of the two-party candidates being slightly different
• I haven't included the wikilinks of the newly-elected candidates, so please add these
• Districts with the same name as others might not be disambiguated properly (e.g. Mulgrave)
• Anything else that's weird with non-classic seats and swings

Let me know if any major issues and I can fix them and run it out again, if just minor tweaks feel free to edit here or when you copy it to the district articles.

--Canley (talk) 06:13, 14 February 2015 (UTC)

New pendulum needed

New pendulum at Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2015 can be created with this from Antony. Timeshift (talk) 09:53, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

I can run one out from my database, give me an hour or two and I'll populate the article. --Canley (talk) 10:27, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

OK, done, I'll fix the shading tomorrow. --Canley (talk) 13:01, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

RfC at Wikipedia talk:WikiProject Australian politics#RfC addressing the inclusion of minor parties in Australian election article infoboxes

A RfC has been started at Wikipedia talk:WikiProject Australian politics#RfC addressing the inclusion of minor parties in Australian election article infoboxes which may affect the infobox of this article. ColonialGrid (talk) 11:21, 3 March 2015 (UTC)

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