Talk:2024 Japanese general election

October 29 or 31?

There's a discrepancy in the "by date" in the article. The lead says by October 31 while the infobox says by October 29.

Does anyone know which is accurate? Basil the Bat Lord (talk) 07:29, 5 July 2024 (UTC)

It's become academic for this one. But, to answer the question for the next "next election" article: Neither. Because the end of term isn't the latest date that the election can be held. If there is a dissolution shortly before the end of term (or the Diet is in session for other reasons briefly before the end of term), then the dissolution date of the House of Representatives (or more generally the session end date of the last National Diet before the election), determines the last possible House of Representatives general election date. (Article 31, section 2, 公職選挙法). As has happened in 2021 which was the first time when a House of Representatives election was held after the original end of term – unlike 1976 which still has been the only election due to end of term/without dissolution under the current constitution and election laws. --Asakura Akira (talk) 09:40, 13 October 2024 (UTC) P.S.: For more digestible media explainers without Legalese, you can try the refs I had included in 2021 in this edit, or retro-search others for 2021 with search terms along the lines of "衆院選" (Shūin-sen, "H.R. election") + "任期満了" (ninki manryō, EOT) + "投票日" (tōhyō-bi, election day/date). 10:10, 13 October 2024 (UTC)

Disowned LDP candidates

Why don't LDP run candidates in these places if they disowned the current ones? PriParaIdolLaala (talk) 09:09, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

For one thing: Good candidates don't grow on trees. So, you can't suddenly pull out a new one a few days before nomination day after having axed the old one who takes much of the local campaign organization which is generally personal, not partisan (Kōenkai) with him or her.
For the rest, the strictly encyclopedic answer would be: n/a=Guess for yourself based on your political POV; but, to provide one not very far-fetched guess that the opposition would probably support [and the LDP was obviously under opposition pressure for the whole affair, in the last National Diet right up to H.R dissolution]: They are still LDP members, even without party nomination. They are established local candidates, some of them real heavyweights. So, they could still win.... And [at this point, opposition hecklers may start to shout something like: bigot!] eventually return to the fold once their party-internal penalty has expired, or maybe even sooner if the [ex-] Abe faction or its new bannerwoman returns to the helm (she herself actually hadn't been a member of the then Machimura faction since 2011 when she left because she preferred Abe over Machimura) – eleven of the twelve un-nominated nominees were ex-Abe faction members. (Takaichi and/or other fellow party enemies toppling Ishiba immediately after the H.R. election could actually happen if the LDP performs badly enough, and that's not too big of an if this time around, judging by the latest local-polling based seat forecasts.)
Back to factuals: Some of them, while running without national party nominations, are actually endorsed by local LDP organizations, either the prefectural party, or sub-prefectural/municipal branches, and some of them also kept the Kōmeitō endorsement. – At least according to the NHK 2024 election feature pages which served for the candidate-prefill of our de.wp results article this year – From among those, one district for this year's oddities list: Fukui 2 where outgoing and national-LDP-disowned Tsuyoshi Takagi (Ind.) is endorsed by some local LDP organizations and another former member, Taku Yamamoto (Ind.), is endorsed by another local LDP branch. Ishin is also fielding an ex-member in Takeshi Saiki (formerly DPJ→...→CDP→). But then, Wyoming is a place where the LDP might still win even with two candidates in the race... --Asakura Akira (talk) 15:00, 24 October 2024 (UTC)

Infobox

Social Democratic Party who won 1 seat is not included in infobox. I suggesting to change the infobox as this one is limited to 9 parties but we have 10 parties with seats. Shadow4dark (talk) 01:02, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

Oppose: The other infobox does not give as much information (leader's image, seat and election, constituency vote and PR votes, turnout, registered voters) as the current one and there is no rule that all parties must be included. 2A02:6B67:E700:800:B999:E82E:DD3E:9112 (talk) 01:32, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

I mean this infobox with the maps included https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Dutch_general_election

Like other pages if it goes above 9 parties we changing the infobox to the above version. The current infobox does not match the body and is factually inaccurate.Shadow4dark (talk) 01:42, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

@Shadow4dark: TILE is poor for countries with two electoral systems. The Japanese election pages used to use it, but they were reverted as they didn't provide a clear picture of the election. ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 14:37, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

The infobox present isn’t meant to display every party. I understand it is consensus to use the other infobox template on Netherlands elections articles but on Japanese election boxes it’s consensus to use this one Bejakyo (talk) 01:57, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

What i see is if it goes above 9 parties the infobox is changed without the portraits to fit all parties. Shadow4dark (talk) 02:06, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

It seems to be a local consensus situation. Dutch election articles apparaently use the multi-party infobox, while Japanese election article do not. --Super Goku V (talk) 06:43, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

Also, it seems like Japanese election articles vary on how they list parties in the infobox, with the best modern example being the 2014 election. Seems some articles have parties in the infobox when they had ten or more seats going in and/or reach ten or more seats following an election. --Super Goku V (talk) 09:26, 30 October 2024 (UTC)

Oppose. This suits the article just fine, and SDP received most likely less than 2% of the vote total. Outside of an SMD they won nothing. River10000 (talk) 01:58, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

Oppose It should follow the guide of only having parties that have obtained 5% in either const. or PR. ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 14:05, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

2024 Japanese general election

27 October 2024
All 465 seats in the House of Representatives 233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	103,880,749 (1.39%)
Turnout	53.84% (2.13; Const. votes) 53.84% (2.14pp; PR votes)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Shigeru Ishiba Yoshihiko Noda Nobuyuki Baba Party LDP CDP Ishin Leader since 27 September 2024 23 September 2024 30 November 2021 Leader's seat Tottori 1st Chiba 14th Osaka 17th Last election 259 seats 96 seats 41 seats Seats won 191 148 38 Seat change 68 52 3 Constituency vote 20,867,762 15,740,860 6,048,103 % and swing 38.46% (9.62pp) 29.01% (0.95pp) 11.15% (2.79pp) Regional vote 14,582,690 11,564,222 5,105,127 % and swing 26.73% (7.93pp) 21.20% (1.20pp) 9.36% (4.65pp)   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Yuichiro Tamaki Keiichi Ishii Tarō Yamamoto Party DPP Komeito Reiwa Leader since 7 May 2018 28 September 2024 1 April 2019 Leader's seat Kagawa 2nd Saitama 14th (defeated) Did not stand Last election 11 seats 32 seats 3 seats Seats won 28 24 9 Seat change 17 8 6 Constituency vote 2,349,584 730,401 425,445 % and swing 4.33% (2.16pp) 1.35% (0.17pp) 0.78% (0.35pp) Regional vote 6,172,434 5,964,415 3,805,060 % and swing 11.32% (6.81pp) 10.93% (1.45pp) 6.98% (3.12pp)   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Tomoko Tamura Sohei Kamiya Naoki Hyakuta Party JCP Sanseitō CPJ Leader since 18 January 2024 30 August 2023 1 September 2023 Leader's seat Tokyo PR block Did not stand Kinki PR block (defeated) Last election 10 seats Did not contest New party Seats won 8 3 3 Seat change 2 New New Constituency vote 3,695,807 1,357,189 95,613 % and swing 6.81% (2.22pp) 2.50% (New) 0.18% (New) Regional vote 3,362,966 1,870,347 1,145,622 % and swing 6.16% (1.09pp) 3.43% (New) 2.10% (New)
Districts and PR districts, shaded according to winners' vote strength
Prime Minister before election Shigeru Ishiba LDP Elected Prime Minister TBD

@ValenciaThunderbolt, Super Goku V, Bejakyo, and River10000: Hi all. We are now having a question whether to include Sanseito and CPJ in the infobox. In my opinion, the infobox should include as many parties as possible because:

1. If the infobox is there to show as many as nine parties, we should display as many parties as we can rather than leaving the whole space empty with no purpose
2. Leaving out two parties and keeping a seven-party infobox would give a misconception that only seven parties contested/won seats in the election
3. The Sanseito and CPJ, as written in the article, are the newly emerged political forces that worth attention. Then why are we preventing our readers to know more about them from the infobox at a glance?
4. It is in line with the Japanese version, which also show nine parties
5. All the Japanese media do not have discriminatory practice against the smaller parties by excluding the Sanseito, who only had one seat, to the debate or in their media coverage, who are we to set up the arbitrary rule to discriminate against small parties?
6. There are many issues with the 5% threshold. Japan, unlike Germany and other countries, does not have the threshold for PR block vote, so the argument that a 5% threshold should apply to Japanese election articles is weak
7. In 2021 Japanese general election, DPP won more seats than JCP but did not feature in the infobox because of the 5% threshold thing, which gives a wrong perception that the JCP was the fifth largest party but it was actually the DPP!

Please have a civilised and rational discussion. 2A02:6B67:E700:800:C453:ECEA:8716:7C66 (talk) 14:24, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

TIE doesn't need to state as many parties as possible in it, as that isn't the reason for it. Sanseito and CPJ may have won seats, but they won't have any affect on who will elect the next PM. Not everything has to align with a foreign language Wikipedia, as each wiki has their own set of rules. ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 14:31, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

In addition, if this were the 2003 election, you'd have parties that really should be in it. ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 14:35, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

I did propose a 5% seat threshold, but it didn't get anywhere. ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 14:39, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

Alternatively, use seat numbers instead of PR. Whoever gets above five or so seats features on the WB, as this is the threshold for being recognized as a national party (2% of the vote is also used but has no practical effect) River10000 (talk) 14:53, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

@River10000: Five is too little in my eyes. Parties of such a size have little affect in parliament. Could you provide a reference for the 2% threshold? ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 15:14, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

I don't have a specific quote on it, but I know that the CPJ is now technically a national party. They're included in polls now and will be included in future debates.

Being a national party allows you to qualify for debates and be listed for polling. For example, the SDP only has 1 seat and wins under 2%, but because they won over 2% in the HoC election in 2022 they're still listed as a national party. This is also the reason why N-Koku was listed in polls despite not participating in the election in 2024.

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20220711-OYT1T50294/ River10000 (talk) 15:24, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

@River10000: That's a good point. ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 15:29, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

I think similar things happened for Sansei after 2022 and Reiwa after 2019, too, but I'm not 100% sure. It's an important benchmark to clear, and the 5 seat threshold was speculated on a lot for the CPJ. River10000 (talk) 15:31, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

@River10000 and ValenciaThunderbolt: Thank you for the messages. Should we agree that any party that receives 2% of national vote and officially recognised as a national party should be included in the infobox then? 2A02:6B67:E700:800:C453:ECEA:8716:7C66 (talk) 15:57, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

@2A02:6B67:E700:800:C453:ECEA:8716:7C66: I think it would be better to move this to the "Politics of Japan" page, as the threshold should be talked about for other elections. ValenciaThunderbolt (talk) 15:59, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

Agreed in this case. We should make an effort of standardizing boxes to the standard. River10000 (talk) 16:27, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

As I mentioned yesterday, the number of parties in the info box varies per election, with the 2014 election showing this the most as the only parties listed are those that had ten or more seats going in and/or reach ten or more seats following an election. (Also, we don't worry too much about ja.wikipedia and they don't worry too much about us.)

With that said, more uniform rules might be better to make it clearer what we think readers would like to see and what we think readers would see as too much detail. --Super Goku V (talk) 19:36, 31 October 2024 (UTC)

Image Typo

The very impressive image displaying the geographic distribution of seats. In the lower left corner, the block seats from proportional representation from Tokai (東海) are mislabeled as Tokyo, but just in English. The Japanese label is fine. I have no idea how to correct an image, sorry. Ryanlidster (talk) 02:34, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

I think you can call the author @User:沁水湾, or create a talk section on her user_talk page. Haers6120 (talk) 03:10, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

In the cartogram some of the parties are mislabeled in English as well. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 91.115.247.113 (talk) 11:24, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

I'm so sorry for being this sloppy. I'll have it fixed right away. 沁水湾 (talk) 18:43, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

@沁水湾 Thank you kindly for your really amazing work. In particular, all of the redistricting is impressive. Ryanlidster (talk) 15:26, 29 October 2024 (UTC)

Confusing image of previous seat distribution

In "Political parties and candidates", the table contains two images showing the distribution of parties: "Last election" and "At dissolution", which look very different. Meanwhile the table shows that hardly anything changed between the last election and dissolution.

The problem is that the images use different orders for the parties and I think different colors for "Nippon Ishin no Kai". The images would be more useful if these issues were fixed. Paditor (talk) 12:06, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

Next Election

If I calculated it correctly, the next General Election will be no later than 22 October 2028. MemeLoser23 (talk) 23:02, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

That may be the end of term which I haven't verified, but the end of term is not the last possible election date. See #October 29 or 31? above. Of course, both a full four-year term (only 1976) or an almost-full four-year term leading to an election date after the full term (only 2021) are very rare/unlikely events. (Especially with a likely minority government that has to face the next national legislative election in just nine months, thinking four years ahead is...) --Asakura Akira (talk) 23:32, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

Title

Why is it titled 2024 general election if it is restricted to the house of representatives? Is it because there is only ever one election in a given year? CyberIdris (talk) 06:27, 1 November 2024 (UTC)

That ellipse is an English Wikipedia translation artifact. The general election of members of the House of Representatives is general because it elects all members of the House of Representatives at once, unlike repeat or by-elections of members of the House of Representatives. In contrast, the House of Councillors doesn't have general elections, but staggered (and therefore partial) elections which are called regular/ordinary (tsūjō) elections of members of the House of Councillors. The two election cycles are independent; but it can happen (and has happened) that both elections fall into the same year (e.g. 1983), or even on the same day (double elections 1980, 1986). The House of Representatives election is also general in the sense that the government *must* resign afterwards, and a new PM election be held in the National Diet; but there may be changes of government after a House of Councillors election just as well (e.g. 1998). --Asakura Akira (talk) 13:11, 2 November 2024 (UTC) P.S. (misread the OP): There can also be two general elections of members of the House of Representatives in one year. The H.R. can be dissolved, so the cabinet just needs to dissolve it soon enough after the last elections that the next election falls into the same calendar year. Voilà. But, so far, that has only ever happened under the Imperial constitution in the 1890s, not under the state constitution. --Asakura Akira (talk) 13:26, 2 November 2024 (UTC)

"There can also be two general elections of members of the House of Representatives in one year."

Oh I see then something like "October 2024 House of Representatives Election" could be more accurate. From what I can see it isn't truly general and as you mentioned there can be more than one in a given year. CyberIdris (talk) 21:07, 6 November 2024 (UTC)

It's definitely not a general election in the US sense: Apart from the fundamental presidential vs. parliamentary system of government distinction, the two independent election cycles for the two houses and the ability to dissolve the H.R. disqualify.
In the UK sense of "general election" – and Westminister is the mother, grandmother or at least grand-aunt of all modern parliamentary systems of government –, it is partly compatible because all members of one house of parliament are up and because of article 70 of the constitution (government must resign after a general H.R. election); but, there are also key differences:

• Unlike the by now mostly toothless unelected UK upper house, the H.C. is directly elected and not toothless (legislative majority in the Japanese parliament requires bicameral majorities or, with drawbacks, a 2/3-majority in the H.R.; forming a government without legislative majority is possible fairly easily [H.R. plurality can be enough without united opposition], but really hard to maintain in a parliamentary system and often short-lived, recent examples include Abe I/Fukuda/Asō (even with 2/3 H.R. majority, each lasted a year at most) or Kan/Noda (tried to hang on after the election loss and then had to deal with a once-in-a-century disaster, but were rather luckless beyond that, with effects on the perception of ex-Democrats as a viable alternative to the day)),
• there is an explicit roll call election of the prime minister (and even though the English Wikipedia usually designates a prime minister elected by the editorship a week in advance, that designation election is not always a mere formality, but an actual vote, think 1979; this time around, a surprise, if still not very likely, is at least within the realm of numerical possibility if the CDP finds a way to sway most/all of the crossbenchers/micro-parties.),
• and the H.C. cannot be dissolved and has US Senate-style staggered elections (only in two classes every three years instead of three classes every two years). --Asakura Akira (talk) 06:51, 7 November 2024 (UTC)